15/9/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Farnley Stakes day

Eight races have been set down for Belmont this Saturday where it is Farnley Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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I’m hoping 2 Agent Pippa (Bet Now: $4.50) jumps, runs and wins. Resumed four weeks back over this track/distance where she was a notable drifter in betting and after getting a somewhat soft lead she had her chance to kick but was beaten off quickly I thought behind Flirtini. Second up now, she should strip fitter and the depth here is nowhere near as strong.

1 Magic Planet (Bet Now: $4.20) is a son of Planet Five resuming for the Adam Durrant team. This bloke had a three run prep in the Autumn to kick off his career, notching up a win in the final start at Ascot before being tipped out. Trialled well enough to my eye a month back at Lark Hill and Pike remains on.

5 Prince Andrei (Bet Now: $35.00) is a Foxwedge gelding who comes back to the 1000m after racing over 1300m here three weeks ago where he just did a bit too much work in the run near the speed and petered out of it late behind Classic Pro. I think fresh and back to five furlongs should help his cause and is a knockout chance.

6 Piece D’resistance (Bet Now: $4.40) on top for me in a pretty thin maiden. Roy Rogers trains this gelding, who is on debut after a stack of trials, but only just the one this time in. That came a few weeks back at Lark Hill and ran second in very sharp time. I think the good lead here is that Pike is booked to steer.

7 Seconda Vita (Bet Now: $3.80) is the pick of the raced brigade. This mare ran over 1200m here last Wednesday in a maiden where she got well back in the run but looked to close off with real purpose late I thought when second to Free Mover, a very nice looking horse. That form reads well for this and draws to sit closer in the run.

8 Kwik Fantasy (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Sharon Miller trained mare who comes back to 1400m after racing over 1650m here a fortnight ago where she got back in the run and couldn’t come on at all behind Kelly’s Secret but to be fair, it was a race dominated by those in the first few. She can take a more forward spot from the draw and Pateman sticks.

I think this race evolves around what happens with 2 Great Again (Bet Now: $2.40). Does he get things to suit on speed, or will he cop pressure from New Time? Or could Pateman take the sit off the veteran? Whatever the situation, he’s the one to beat. Has won his last four in impressive fashion and is a dynamite horse when produced fresh.

3 Get Over It (Bet Now: $5.00) is one of a couple of horses here who will be hoping they overdo it in front. He got well off the pace a fortnight back over 1400m here but finished off very strongly late to run a close up third to Nelson’s Flight. First up got within a length of Great Again, so he’s certainly in the mix.

5 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $9.00) also comes through the Nelson’s Flight race and I thought his run was full of merit, closing off with purpose late to run a narrow fourth. I think you can back him with confidence once he gets to Ascot in a similar race given he saves his best for there, but he’s capable here if things fall into place.

Provided there is no second up syndrome, 1 Man Booker (Bet Now: $1.45) should be winning. He resumed in the Idyllic Price here a fortnight and he just missed out on a fabulous winning resumption, with Rebel King getting the verdict both on the track and in the Stewards Room. Can only improve off that…just hoping there is no second up syndrome.

7 Yeah Dardy (Bet Now: $3.90) is a month between runs since contesting the Belmont Newmarket where he had the suck run just off the pace and he tried hard but just lacked the killer blow when third to Super Maxi. Been kept on ice for this and his fresh record is outstanding. Just depends where he gets to on the map.

2 Dream Lifter (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Jim Taylor trained veteran who comes through the Idyllic Prince where he was up near the speed and though beaten at the top of the straight, he didn’t turn it up and battled away well I thought with a cracked sole. Third up now, so he should be near peak fitness and there doesn’t appear to be much speed near him on the map.

Going with 7 How To Fly (Bet Now: $4.20). Adam Durrant trains this mare, who resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back where she pretty much cost herself any chance of a win when wanting to not take the run between runners and then laying in under pressure. Hopefully that run takes the freshness away from her and she puts it all together.

4 Undisclosed (Bet Now: $4.60) is a nippy mare for Colin Webster who will more than likely be leading this field up but the last 100m will be the test, as was the case in the race mentioned above and she just felt the pinch late when second to Dia de La Raza. She’ll lead and look the winner, but it’ll be heart in the mouth stuff for the final few strides.

1 Lockroy (Bet Now: $10.00) is son of More Than Ready resuming for Chris Gangemi. This seven year old hasn’t raced since April 28 at Ascot where he ran a close up third to Belter after getting a lovely sit just off the pace. I like him fresh at 1000m and interesting he resumes without a trial. Definite market watch.

Now that she’s got a win on the board, I’m confident that 11 Kelly’s Secret (Bet Now: $6.50) can repeat the dose. Ran in a maiden at this track/distance two weeks ago where she was a heavily backed odds on pop and despite being in a bit of trouble halfway down the straight, her class kicked in and she proved too good. Not much depth here, down in the weights and draws well. Very likeable.

6 Dark Prospect (Bet Now: $5.00) is a son of Blackfriars who has been excellent in two runs back from a spell for the Neville Parnham team. On the quick back up after racing over this track/distance where he just got too far back off the pace when fourth to Battle Torque but did produce some of the best late splits of the meeting. Repeats that and he’ll go close.

8 Rose’s Shadow (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Sharon Miller trained mare who should be at peak fitness now fourth up from a spell. Ran over this track/distance two weeks back and I thought she had her chance when fifth to Patrocity, but that horse looks a really good prospect and was hard fit. Not sure she can win, but is a must for exotics.

I’ll take a punt on 6 Bergio (Bet Now: $6.00). I think the step up to 2000m looks ideal. Ran over the mile here a fortnight back where he was wide no cover for the trip but despite that hard run, he fought on really well behind Patrocity. Races as if the trip will suit and Pike jumps on, which appears to be a good lead.

3 Juicing Carrots (Bet Now: $5.00) was three weeks between runs when racing over the mile here last Saturday where he just looked to race a touch keen in the run, which definitely didn’t help him behind the hard fit/in form Battle Torque. Run under the belt and up to 2000m should suit him perfectly. Definite winning chance.

9 Jazari (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Neville Parnham trained gelding who has been around the mark of late but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Ran over the 2200m here a fortnight ago and for mine I think the trip just saw him out when fifth to Beg To Differ after looming large to win. Back to 2000m with a senior jock on, he can run well.

Very, very keen to see what 4 Yindi (Bet Now: $3.60) does here. I reckon the stable think he’s a Carnival horse given they could have kept going with a Winter prep but after winning over 1300m here, they gave him a seven week break. That tells me they think he’s a Stakes class type. Ability/potential wise, he’s better than these. Hoping the market agrees.

3 Supreme Force (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Not A Single Doubt for the Pearce team who comes back to 1200m after leading all the way to win last Wednesday over 1400m here under a lovely front running steer from Smokin Joe. I reckon back to 1200m will suit and she’ll be up on speed giving her all.

7 Laurensen (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Planet Five gelding resuming for the Bob McPherson stable. This bloke hasn’t raced since June 2017, a break of over 15 months. He does have a very good fresh record and his two trials leading in have been quite impressive to the eye. I think the market will tell you how strong his chances are.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Man Booker

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Great Again

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Bergio

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 8, 11

Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 9, 11

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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