15/8/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, PB Lawrence Stakes day

Some of the better gallopers in training will be out on display this Saturday at Caulfield for a strong nine event meeting, highlighted by the Group ll PB Lawrence Stakes (1400m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

PB Lawrence Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the PB Lawrence Stakes

Tricky race to start the meeting. Going the way of 4 No Effort (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS). She drops a fair bit in grade/depth after contesting an open handicap at the Valley two weeks ago where she was clearly outclassed on paper but in a fast run race found the line pretty well behind Al Galayel. Now back to Mares grade, from a soft gate, back on a track she has won at, she appeals.

1 Sovereign Award (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS) is seemingly getting better with racing. Danny O’Brien trained mare that was an impressive winner two back at Sale before going to the Valley where Olly took her to the front and controlled things beautifully from the front, allowing the mare to get a breather mid race and have something for the finale. If she holds her form, hard to beat again.

6 Mrs O’Malley (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door to win one. Comes through the Moscow Red race at the midweeks at Sandown when back in the run and closed off hard late, just missing out on the win when a close up third. Can be hit and miss this girl, but her best is clearly good enough and she’s racing near that at the moment.

1 Mister Mogul (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a good measuring stick for this kind of level at this time of year given he’s a 1000m specialist and does seem to be enjoying his racing at the moment. Good win two back before a game second to Bumper Blast, who looks a Stakes class animal for the Spring. Should be near the speed and proving hard to beat.

8 Propelle (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is a hard one to catch but I think she’s going well and a win certainly wouldn’t shock with her. Ran over 1000m at the Valley two weeks ago here she got the suck run on the fence and sliced her way through intl clear air, but bumped into a pretty good one, Brooklyn Hustle. Off that effort, goes close here.

4 A Good Yarn (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) will put himself on speed and run his usual honest race. That’s what he did two weeks ago at the Valley when leading and tried hard, but clearly no match for the finale that Brooklyn Hustle produced. Might cop pressure in front here, but he’s hard fit, in form and 1000m is his A1 trip, so definitely including.

4 She’s A Thief (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Michael Moroney. Puts herself on speed and gives her all, which is what she did when winning here three weeks ago against the Mare and really, it was sustained speed that won her the race in a ripping win. Potentially on a path towards a race like the Cockram, so keen to see how she goes here.

2 Our Campana (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is third up now from a spell and should be at peak fitness. Defied a notable betting drift to win first up before racing here again three weeks ago where she was on a hot speed and tired late behind She’s A Thief. Think she’s better when ridden with cover and a bunny to chase. If that eventuates, she can bounce back here.

5 Street Icon (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a talented mare for Kevin Corstens that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Adelaide Carnival in the Proud Miss when running a strong third to Humma Humma against the track pattern in an excellent effort. Has somewhat of some form of residual fitness, sprints well fresh and has a bit of quality to her form.

4 Exasperate (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a Matty Brown trained gelding that resumes. This six year old really came of age during the Autumn, winning three of his last four, all three wins coming over the mile here. Not really a noted first up performer, but a recent Cranbourne jumpout was pretty good and given his track/distance record, he gets respect.

Fresh legs at 1600m does look ideal for the Danny O’Brien trained gelding 2 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS). Shared the spoils with Shot Of Irish at the Valley two back before contesting the Winter Championship Final where he was ridden a touch close I think and couldn’t finish it off when fourth. Think with a more conservative steer he’ll be more effective.

9 Firstclass Dreamer (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is eligible for much easier, but he’s hard fit, in form, and is right down in the weights. Impressive win last time out over the mile at Sandown, producing really good late splits from off the speed to score. That was a Benchmark 64. Now up to open company, but does drop 7kg and gets a lovely run from the gate.

2 Larimer Street (Bet Now: $9.00) for me. Quality youngster for the Busuttin/Young team that resumes. Had a busy two year old season, especially in the Autumn. Should have won the Inglis Millennium at Warwick Farm, then went to the VRC Sires when second. Then came back to 1200m when bolting up in the St Albans before finishing down the track in the Sires at Randwick and was spelled. Recent Cranbourne jumpout was very good and given his record, he’s very well in at the weights.

6 Hydro Star (Bet Now: $3.00) looks pretty good and I think he can make it 2/2 for sure. Backed as if unbeatable when debuting at the midweeks at Sandown and the market support was justified, producing a lovely turn of foot under Jamie Mott to score. Looks very much above average but has to keep winning to confirm that and I think he can win again here.

8 The Cruiser (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Frank Stockdale trained youngster that was thrown in the deep end on debut at the Valley a fortnight back but despite the tough ask first up, he ran a beauty behind Hard Landing and produced the best last furlong of the meeting. He’s a nice horse that will win races. Not sure it’s here, but is one for multiples.

I’m clearly in the corner of 7 Fresh (Bet Now: $7.50) for Team Snowden. She ran some great figures in her first couple of runs to start her career in the Autumn where she was heading down the Blue Diamond path but failed to fire in the Prelude and was spelled soon after. Has had three Flemington jumpouts, the latest being Monday where she looked to travel sweetly. She’s flying and confident she can win.

Just how good is 3 Parlophone? (Bet Now: $2.45) Price/Kent trained filly that had the weight pull in the Lightning at Morphettville three weeks ago but even allowing for that, it was a massive win from the back and produced an electric finale, stamping herself as a potential top tier three year old for this season. If she is to do that, needs to confirm by winning here.

9 Aquagirl (Bet Now: $61.00) can be an improver here for Phillip Stokes. Jumped out really well prior to resuming at the midweeks at Sandown where she led and looked to travel sweetly, but had no answers for the finale produced by Hydro Star, who looks above average, so think that form reads well and she’ll come on from that.

8 Bumper Blast (Bet Now: $3.60) has looked a Stakes class horse for a little while and I think he can confirm that with a win here. Resumed down the Flemington straight four weeks ago, a race that was used as somewhat of a trial for him, but he was still far too good for them. He’ll improve off that, extra 200m suits and has plenty of upside.

2 Viridine (Bet Now: $2.70) is a James Cummings trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since taking out the Bletchingly where Olly produced a 12/10 steer on the fence, not going around a horse and saving every inch of ground to get up and win. Great Again went close last Saturday, so the form looks alright, he’s hard fit and in form.

9 She Shao Fly (Bet Now: $10.00) is another that commands respect from the Bletchingly. Her effort to finish off like she did was outstanding, running some great late splits when a close up fifth to Viridine. Gets a good weight pull on that horse here and from the inside gate, can potentially sit a bit closer in the run and be dangerous at odds.

He’s a star 1 Regal Power (Bet Now: $5.50) and demands respect. Hasn’t raced since scoring a memorable win here in the All Star Mile, with Pike producing a ride that well and truly silenced his critics. Looks like this horse is on a Cox Plate path and appears ready to go if his sharp Bendigo jumpout win is any guide. Definite market watch to see if he’s fancied.

Great to see 8 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $4.00) back at the races. High class mare that hasn’t raced since making a cameo in the Autumn in the William Reid when outstanding from the back behind a star, Loving Gaby. She’s a good fresh horse, her two trials back home have been strong and loved her piece of work last week. She’s ready to go.

3 Streets Of Avalon (Bet Now: $8.00) looks really hard to beat here. Shane Nicholls trains this Group l winner, who resumed three weeks ago in the Bletchingly where he did a bit of work early to get on speed and though off the bit quickly, he ran through the pain barrier and was good to the line and through it when second to Viridine. Really hard to beat here with the run under the belt.

It’s great to see the Cerise & White in the East and I’m keen to see how 4 Showmanship (Bet Now: $1.60) goes. He’s being touted as a potential Group l performer and you’d have to assume that’s why he has come over, for a race like the Sir Rupert Clarke you would think. Simply been too good for them in Perth. Good test here, but confident he can stamp himself as a proper good horse.

Interesting to see support for 2 Junipal (Bet Now: $8.50). I think from the gate, this will be more of a tune up to get ready for something down the track, but he’s been gelded since he last raced, and his two jumpouts have been very encouraging. Go back four runs ago, he beat Master Of Wine. That’s the quality he has when right.

Very interested to see how 3 Adelaide Ace (Bet Now: $9.50) resumes. Talented four year old for Lindsey Smith that resumes, having not raced since the 2200m 3YO race on Golden Mile Day at Bendigo where he pulled up post race with excuses. 1400m fresh tells me he’s forward enough, gets the claim and his best is good enough to give the fav a shake.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Showmanship

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Larimer Street

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 4 No Effort

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 9, 12

Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 9

Leg Four: 4

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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