15/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, The Quokka day

Ten races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday, highlighted by the inaugural edition of The Quokka (1200m), a $4 Million slot race. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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The Quokka 🏆: View the Field and Odds for The Quokka

2 Pot Shot (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be better off for the first up run, which came here a fortnight back over 1000m. She got back in a slowly run race and although she was never a threat, I thought she found the line pretty well late in the piece when third to the in form Leniency. Good second up record and a good lead is that Pike rides. Think with a more positive steer, she’ll take beating.

3 Rumour Says (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite winning chance. Luke Fernie trained filly that was kept quite safe in betting when resuming in the Leniency race mentioned above. She got back in the small field and made up headway, finishing just under two lengths from the winner. If the inside gate is used to advantage, she’ll be dangerous I am sure.

6 Deep Envy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in her five start career and comes here off a win. That win came at this track/distance on Good Friday where Pike rode her a treat on speed, playing the patient game in pushing the button and it worked to perfection as he had something in hand to fend off Zangief. Harder here, but good racing style and hard fit.

8 Divine Quest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth an each way bet here in what looks a thin race. She was specked at odds when racing here on Good Friday and while she didn’t win, she ran up to the market push when back in the run and closing off with purpose to finish third behind Here For Cheques. She doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but if she can use the inside gate to advantage, she’ll be dangerous.

3 Forever Dreaming (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at the mile but is racing like she will appreciate it. She was kept quite safe in betting when racing two weeks ago here over 1400m. She had the suck run behind the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when fourth to Blazing Tycoon. Just lacking any real change up speed so up to 1600m is fine and the depth here is on the thin side.

4 Sessions Peak (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited up in trip. He was 1500m back to 1400m when racing here last Saturday and I thought caught the eye, getting back in the run and worked home well without threatening when third to impressive winner Cobbanco. Has won at the mile previously in town so he can certainly measure up and settle closer in the run.

3 Michelada (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the nod for me in an even race. Simon Miller trained mare that resumed at the midweeks at Belmont where she defied a betting drift to lead throughout for a narrow but strong win. She was there to be beaten but she kept finding under Watson to fend them off and win. Think she’ll hold the front from the inside gate and from there, prove hard to run down.

4 Miss Field (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. She ran second to Michelada in the race mentioned and I thought her run was full of merit. She was back in the small field and tried to make up the required ground but couldn’t quite get there, finishing a narrow second. Think if the tempo is more genuine for her, she can finish over the top and take this out.

8 Supportive (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has come back in super order for Neville Parnham. Dominant winner two back over 1100m here before going to the Michelada race mentioned above where she was outside the speed throughout and tried hard but just lacked the change up speed to go with them late when third, beaten 2.5L. Reckon with a more patient steer, and back up to 1200m, she’ll be more effective late.

6 Ciscojoe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top. Bernie Miller trained gelding who has been a model of consistency this time in, placing at his past two. Two back was over 1800m here where he seemingly had his chance before going to the mile two weeks ago and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when third to Mountain Ash. He should be strong at the end, he’s hard fit and maps to get a sweet run in transit.

Back to 1800m I like for 8 Flower In The Wind (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and she is a mare who has found positive form and has found a winnable race. She was 1500m to 2200m when racing here three weeks ago and closed her race off nicely from off the speed when third to the in form Friar Away, who ran well last week. Back in trip is a query, but she’ll be strong late and she is a mare that once she finds, she holds it.

10 Piccola Signora (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous if she can settle closer in the run. She ran in the Mountain Ash race from two weeks back here where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way she found the line late in the piece when fifth to the Dan Morton trained gelding. Has the potential to settle closer and off last start, she’s in with a shout.

4 Snowdome (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks himself. Neville Parnham trained three year old that is on the seven day back up after a dominant all the way win last Saturday at this track/distance. Chris Parnham got complete control on him and in a driving go, he finished best for an impressive win, clocking fast late splits, which was understandable given the early control. But he’s found winning form, he looks the leader again and should prove too sharp.

8 Thomas Magnum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the hard fit/in form horse who has performed well on wet ground previously. He ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and seemed to get every chance despite being held up on the turn when fourth to He’s Gold. They tried him at 1200m but he’s a much better 1000m horse and with that in mind, he has to be respected.

1 Savage One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Son of God Has Spoken that resumes for Adam Durrant, having not raced since September 24 when producing an end of prep run over the mile at Belmont, leading and tiring late when down the track behind Benji’s. He is very good early on in a prep and his trial work suggests he has come back in good order. Dangerous against these, especially if he holds the back of Snowdome.

6 Tenacious Reward (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me but not really a race I want to get involved in. He has been pretty good in recent runs, winning three back over 1500m at Pinjarra before coming back to 1400m and was good late behind Stellar Vista before going to the mile on Good Friday and against the race shape, he closed off nicely to run a close up third to Catch These Hands. Like him up to 1800m. Just needs luck from the tricky gate.

13 Wicked Fox (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a last start track/distance winner so she commands respect. That win came last week on the Good Friday meeting where she got into a lovely spot under Steve Parnham and in a driving finish was able to finish best, seemingly appreciating a rise in trip. Has that run under the belt and maps to get a good run from the draw. Hard to beat.

3 Never Sober (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should have good room for improvement. He ran a tick under two weeks back over the mile at Pinjarra and was solid enough in defeat. He was specked at a price and ran well without winning, sitting on speed and just feeling the pinch late behind Heaps Of Moolah. Like him up in trip and he must be showing something for Harvey to keep sticking.

6 Live To Tell (Bet Now:  $SP.00) just picks herself. The comparisons have been made with her star stablemate Amelia’s Jewel, and she has a fair way to go to reach her level, but she’s on her way and confident she can emulate her from last year and win this race. The Gimcrack win had to be seen to be believed, the way she rounded them up from an awful spot on the turn, launching late to finish over the top. Off that, she’ll eat up 1200m and her change up speed will be too much for them.

7 Super Smink (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only threat to the favourite. WA Magic Millions winner that ran in The Gimcrack and I thought was given a peach by Parnham, looking the winner for a long way bu was nabbed on the line by Live To Tell. She is the one that is proven at 1200m and will likely have in run advantage over the favourite, so you can make a case for her as a key winning chance.

9 Wiley Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lands near the speed and will give cheek, especially with W Pike aboard. She ran three weeks back at this track/distance where she led throughout and was there to be run down but she railed up beautifully, dashed on the turn and was far too good for them. She has the recent 1200m run under the belt and with her racing style, she’ll run a positive race I am sure.

Putting the barrier draw drama aside, just purely from a race field perspective, 14 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now: $4.00 To Run Top 2 SPECIAL ODDS) is the most brilliant of this lot. It was essentially a trial for her in the Roma Cup and what a trial it was. As is the norm with her, she can hit a flat spot, but then she goes through her gears and savages the line, winning comfortably. Any hint of luck from the gate and she’ll be too good.

10 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is very likeable. Been set for the race for some time and comes here ready to rock and roll off the back of an excellent second in the William Reid when a closing second to a classy Kiwi mare in Imperatriz. Maps to get a lovely run in transit…the big tick is the rain forecast for Thursday/Friday. If it hits and this track is in the Soft range, she becomes the big threat to the star filly.

From a betting perspective, 1 Kementari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is just a ridiculous price at $26+ in early markets. He has a fab record when coming to WA and has been set for the race for a while. His last run came here during the Carnival late last year in the Gold Rush and his run was enormous against the pattern. Trials have been super and if the gate can be used to advantage, I think he’ll only run well.

5 Startrade (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good second up record and appeals big time. He resumed in the Roma Cup and while he only beat a few runners home, his run had merit to it, making up ground before getting held up late in the piece. His late splits were pretty good, which is a big tick given 1100m is clearly short of his best. 1200m is short of his best as well, but with good speed in front, he’ll be strong at the end.

Giving respect to 13 Baby Paris (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Talented filly for Colin Webster that comes back a bit in depth after contesting the Roma Cup where she got dragged back from the wide gate and was never a factor, finishing down the track behind Amelia’s Jewel. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run, likely box seating, and has won at 1200m. Down in the weights, hard fit, she appeals.

2 Dom To Shoot (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Casey trained gelding that resumes. He had a mixed campaign during the Carnival last year, winning over the mile before being set on a Perth Cup path where he ran pretty well without winning. Resumes without a public trial but first up in a race like this tells me there is some level of intent and the stable can get them ready fresh, so watch the market.

3 Top Of The Pops (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting towards D-Day. Dan Morton trained three year old that is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He was wide throughout so forgive the first up run. He then stepped up to 1200m here two weeks ago and tried his guts out but had to settle for a narrow second to He’s Gold. He has won at 1400m previously and this is a weak race. If he’s going to be a decent horse in decent races, he has to be putting this field away.

Back to 1400m I do like for 8 Romancing The Rock (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Team Williams trained gelding that has raced over 1500m and 1600m respectively his past two and while he has run well, he just hasn’t quite attacked the line with purpose, the latest run seeing him finish fourth to Catch These Hands a fortnight back when on speed and just not finishing the race off. Back in trip, Pike on, he’s dangerous.

7 Sneaky Fox (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves another crack in town. Roy Rogers has him flying at the moment, his past two starts resulting in dominant on speed wins at Albany. Clearly a harder assignment here and a query at 1400m, but with a cheap run on speed, he can be a threat as a winning prospect. Must for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 6 Live To Tell

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Snowdome

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Startrade

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 6

Leg Two: 10, 14

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 13

Leg Four: 3, 7, 8, 9

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