15/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Pakenham, Pakenham Cup night

Nine races will be run and won at Pakenham on Friday night for Pakenham Cup Night. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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10 Rubikton (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top in the opener. Clinton McDonald trained filly that is on debut off the back of impressive jumpout work, the latest being at Cranbourne when winning and seemingly going about her business quite nicely in a decent piece of work. Tricky gate but with the 1000m start, it’s only one turn so it’s no world ending and she looks to have talent.

12 The Doll (Bet Now:  $SP.00) stays at 1000m, which could be a nightmare, but I think she has an engine under the hood. This girl debuted over 1000m at Yarra Glen where she got back to near last in the run and made up good headway late without threatening behind Fallen, finishing third. She’ll be strong late. Just depends what start she concedes.

1 Cash Converter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Headwater for Kane Harris that is on debut. This guy comes into this off the back of a jumpout win at Caulfield Heath where he won nicely to my eye and ran solid enough time. Stable can get them ready for a first up/debut win so watch the market and see what it thinks of him.

Reckon there is a great each way gamble here in the shape of 5 Parachuter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Trent Edmonds. She resumed at The Valley over 1000m where she raced and was ridden like it was a barrier trial, getting back and not really getting involved but was good late. Trained on the track and had jumped out super leading in. Williams sticks, I think she’ll be strong at the end.

4 Grinzinger Angel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Harry Angel for Danny O’Brien that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Geelong Cup Day when doing too much work on speed and just tired late behind subsequent Group l placegetter Mornington Glory, so that clearly reads well for this and she has jumped out well to get ready.

2 Manhattan Thunder (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss at times but his best is certainly good enough to be dangerous for John Sadler. He hasn’t raced sicne Feb 18 at Sale when back in the small field and although he did make up ground, he was never a threat behind Guerrera. Frssh legs, fast run 1000m, he’s dangerous.

8 Illative (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is short enough but I think she has a bit on these for Price/Kent. This girl ran down the straight at Flemington last time out where she got back in the run but surged hard late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Diamond Decorator. Back to maiden grade, she has a few lengths on these all things being equal IMO.

If there is a threat, then 3 Attain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is indeed the threat. Robbie Laing trained gelding that ran in the Future Stars Final…well, I say ran, but it was a trial for him given he had zero luck in the straight and just couldn’t get room to move at any stage. Not sure he beats Illative but he should be around the mark.

5 I Am Victorious (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for David Harrison, having not raced since Feb 15 when debuting at this track/distance. He led and copped heat on speed, feeling the pinch late in the piece when down the track. He has had time to recover from that run and had jumped out well prior. First four threat.

5 Finale (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning for Cliff Brown. This filly ran over 1500m in a Sandown maiden last time out where she was badly unlucky behind the speed, having no room to move whatsoever in a total forgive behind Biden Time. Should get room to move this time around and in a winnable race for mine, she’s clearly the one to beat.

3 Thoughtful Woman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a couple of runs at 1400m and is racing like a rise to the mile suits. Robbie Laing trained mare that has raced over 1400m here her past couple, the latest being just over two weeks ago when back near last in the run and made up solid headway late in the piece behind Mislead. She’s had a few chances to break the maiden status but is racing well and commands respect.

4 Elegancia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been solid in two career outings for Liam Howley. Did more than enough on debut at Werribee before going to 1300m at Ararat two weeks back when midfield and tried hard to get there. Just couldn’t quite get the job done when third. Racing like 1600m suits…not sure she wins but a first four contender.

3 Uptown Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me each way in what looks a relatively thin maiden. GaiBott trained four year old that sat on speed over 1400m at Bendigo last time out and he tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through behind Easy Dun, who ran well in a Stakes race earlier this week, so the form reads super and with front end control, he’ll take running down.

11 Extreme Virtue (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good upside. She debuted over 1400m at Bendigo where she seemingly had every chance from behind the speed but I will say she was in somewhat restricted room and she looked to somewhat resent it. Drawn out to get clear air this time around and gets C Williams, who rides this track very well.

12 Rebellious Hope (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous at odds. She ran over this track/distance last time out where she got a fair way out of her ground and while she was never a threat, she was good late in the piece. If the inside gate can be used to advantage, I think she comes here as a key threat.

6 Amani (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice mare. Tom Sadler trained mare that resumed in a Terang maiden where she gave them a start and a beating, launching late from near last for a big win. You’d think there is good improvement from that and with D Lane aboard, she rates highly for me against these. Happy to be in her corner.

4 Lightning Flash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door for Matt Laurie. This mare ran over the mile at The Valley on Feb 9 where he got off the speed and tried her guts out to find. She worked home well enough but was never threatening behind Harmonious Senora. Fresh legs and back to 1400m, she appeals.

2 Grey Northern (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite winning chance. Simon Zahra trained mare that resumed at this track/distance where she got a fair way out of her ground but was good late without threatening behind North Channel, who I think in time will be Saturday class, so I do like that form leading into this and from a good gate, she’ll be around the mark.

1 Gwan So (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks one of the better bets on the card for Annabel Neasham. This gelding was good from on speed fresh at Sandown behind Master Montaro before going to Sandown again where he got back to near last in the run and was a real eye catcher late in the piece behind Lethal Thoughts. Hard fit, back in depth and with the claim…gee he looks well placed.

8 The Creator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Wrote that resumes for the Price/Kent camp. This guy hasn’t been seen since Sep 9 over the mile at The Valley when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Place Of Gold. He has jumped out well enough to my eye and commands respect despite the wide gate.

6 Lidder Valley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Briedoake/Jenkins. This guy is racing in consistent form at the moment, the latest run being over 1300m at Sandown when back near last and making up good ground late in the piece behind Hazel Baby. Dangerous if the inside gate can be used to advantage.

I can mark 1 Dunkel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) odds on. He’s a star IMO and a good thing here. Yes, to the eye, just a win last time, but he was ridden upside down, the tempo was a barrier trial, yet he was still too good. There looks like there will be good pressure here and we know this guy is a beast when it comes to high pressure races. Proven weight carrier, class, I am supremely confident he wins.

3 Ashrun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a threat, if there is any. He ran an absolute belter in the Melbourne Cup before being spelled. He resumed over 2000m at Caulfield behind Dunkel and was a real eye catcher late the way he closed off late in the piece. Fitter and up in trip, significant jockey upgrade…the one if Dunkel is off his game.

14 Think N Fly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one at a price that I can entertain to run top three. He is absolutely flying for the Noonan camp. He was good in defeat at Flemington in a sit/sprint before quickly backing up and going to 2500m at The Valley where he was dominant from on speed and strong to the line. Career best form, sits handy, down in the weights…definite place chance.

6 United Kingdom (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, has a few lengths on these. Price/Kent trained three year old that was an electric debut winner at Geelong before going to the Autumn Classic at Caulfield when outclassed, finishing down the track behind Immediacy. Back to the mile is ideal, he has a touch of quality and there is just nothing to this race. He wins and win well IMO.

1 Daily Bugle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won in forever but he is racing well. Griffiths/De Kock trained gelding that ran over 1300m at Sandown last time where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Hazel Baby. Tricky gate, but should be strong at the end.

7 Magadan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes back to the mile after racing over 1800m at Sandown last time out where he was on speed and gave a decent sight but 1800m at that level just found him out late in the piece behind Bavicia, who went within a lip of winning again on Wednesday, so the form reads well…doubt he wins, but a first four contender.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Dunkel

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 6 United Kingdom

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 3 Uptown Boy

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 6

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