15/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Villiers Stakes day

Racing returns to Randwick this Saturday for a bumper nine race card, highlighted by the Villiers Stakes (1600m), with the Group ll ensuring the winner gets ballot exemption for the Doncaster. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

3 Lifesaver (Bet Now: $8.00) on top. Matty Dunn trains this quality gelding, who hasn’t raced since October 20 in a Highway over 1100m here where on face value he was disappointing behind The Lion but wasn’t beaten far and I think riding home more forward was the wrong tactic. I think with a more conservative ride, back to 1000m, he’ll be more effective. Keep in mind he was down to run at Canterbury a couple of Friday nights back but injured himself on the day of the race. Market will be the guide.

9 Mick The Hat (Bet Now: $4.50) will certainly give a sight on speed for the Brett Cavanough team. Ran over 1100m on his home track at Scone last time and absolutely bolted in, leading all the way, smashing the clock and being strong on the line. Back to 1000m no issue, should land in a beaut spot from gate one and only has 51kg after the claim. Won’t be surprised if he’s well backed.

12 Embezzlement (Bet Now: $9.50) is a talented mare that resumes for the Joseph/Jones team. This mare showed really good promise on the Acton track at Canberra, winning a couple of races in good style before being tipped out. Thought her recent trial at Canberra was very good and these Canberra runners have been quite good since being re-introduced to the Highway.

I want to give 8 Gongs (Bet Now: $9.50) another chance. I liked her when she raced at Rosehill a fortnight back and on face value, she was disappointing behind Kapajack, but looking at the replays, early on in the day, the inside wasn’t the A1 ground. Was beaten under two lengths so she wasn’t too bad in defeat and she remains down in the weights so I’ll lean her way without much confidence.

3 Mister Songman (Bet Now: $3.90) is a former Tasmanian who made his mainland debut at Rosehill two weeks ago where I thought he was quite good in defeat given he did work on speed, copped pressure and in the end he was only bloused late. Remaining at 1100m is the niggle because I think he wants 1200-1400 but he’s a tough bugger who will give his all.

She’s hit and miss but the best version of 7 Miss Toorak Flyer (Bet Now: $15.00) would see her measure up to these. Visually, a brilliant resumption from the back to win at Cranbourne. The positives is that she’s got a turn of foot, the stable is in form and a fast tempo will suit. The negatives are that this is a significant step up in grade and she didn’t beat much first up.

It’s hard seeing anything other than a win for 4 Seasons (Bet Now: $2.15). She was given such a sweet ride by Tim Clark when resuming over 1200m at Rosehill three weeks ago and from the 600m onwards, she was the winner and won accordingly. Tick over trial last week at Hawkesbury was very good behind Pumpkin Pie and I think only bad luck will be beating her.

13 Alassio (Bet Now: $8.00) is a daughter of Foxwedge resuming for the WaterBott team. This girl won her first three career outings in good style before going to Rosehill where she copped pressure in front and faded late behind Smart Amelia. Been given a good break and looks ready to rock and roll off the back of two sharp trial wins. Think she’s right in the game if she gets conditions to suit.

9 Charlayne (Bet Now: $13.00) is a talented daughter of Sebring that is resuming for Chris Waller. She hasn’t raced since early June at Rosehill where she bled in a clear forgive behind Dawn Dawn. Trialled up really well recently…always on guard with bleeders first up because they’ll either come back in brilliant order or flop badly, with no middle ground.

There is a bit of rain forecast so with that in mind I’m happy to go each way with 1 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $5.50). He’s been a ripper for Joe Pride for a number of years now and continually runs well. That was the case last time in the ATC Cup at Rosehill. The slow tempo and firm track didn’t help his cause but he still ran okay in defeat behind Exoteric. Randwick 2400m is his go and if the track has any give, I think he’s one of the hardest to beat.

Hasn’t 3 Exoteric (Bet Now: $2.50) just turned his career around. The trip to Port Macquarie for their Cup looked like it was an easy race to collect, he’ll get his win for the prep and likely spell. But he has just gone right on with it since, winning another two races including the ATC Cup last start where he was dominant. Better suited at 2400m you would like to think so has to rate highly.

4 Wall Of Fire (Bet Now: $10.00) is a fascinating runner. He’s been ordinary in three runs back from a break but in saying that, the three races he has contested have been much, much stronger than what he faces here. Hasn’t raced since the Geelong Cup when back against the bias and not pulling up 100% behind Runaway. There’s no recent jump outs for him but Bowman booked and on his day, this horse has class.

I really like the way 5 Enforcement (Bet Now: $5.50) has trialled leading in. Team Snowden trains this son of I Am Invincible, who has looked the part in a couple of trials, the latest coming over 1000m at Hawkesbury last week where he was tucked in behind the leader before J Mac gave him a squeeze to get clear and he went to the line under a really good hold in winning. Like him alot.

14 Touch Of Paradise (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Mick Price trained filly who is on debut here. She’s been in Sydney for a couple of weeks now and appears to have settled in nicely. Trialled last week at Rosehill and despite doing plenty wrong in the straight, she won the trial and ran okay time. The ear muffs go on for pre race to hopefully calm her down. Definite watch here. She also had a Caulfield jump out on November 20 and went pretty good there also.

10 Namimo (Bet Now: $12.00) looks a good filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team. She has done a little bit wrong since day one and that was evident on debut at the Valley but once she balanced up in the straight, she was quite good late behind Brooklyn Hustle, the boom 2YO in Victoria. Bigger track and a fast run 1000m looks perfect for her and she’s in the right stable.

Has to carry the weight but I’ll stick with the class that is 1 Deploy (Bet Now: $8.00). I thought he wen enormous first up in the Starlight at Rosehill. Looked as if he was going to win with 100m to go but condition just gave way. Better suited up to 1200m, fitter, loves Randwick and he does have a stack of class on his side, so I’m hoping that will carry him.

I think we’ll get a true guide as to how good 9 Cradle Mountain (Bet Now: $1.90) is. He’s got the racing pattern and sustained speed to suggest he could measure up to Group l company but this is the first time he has taken on some big boys and girls. Tradesman like win over 1300m last time at Rosehill but is most effective at 1200m, so really keen to see how he goes.

6 Firsthand (Bet Now: $9.00) could have last look off a hot speed. He comes back to 1200m after winning impressively over 1400m at Rosehill, beating My Nordic Hero, who of course franked the form in the Festival. Another that likes racing here and the speed should be hot, so I think he can only run well despite coming back in trip.

10 Sambro (Bet Now: $9.50) looks to be ticking over beautifully for this for the Chris Waller stable. Hasn’t raced since October 27 when beaten a lip by stablemate Torgersen in a close finish at Randwick. Been freshened up and the tick over trials have looked pretty good to the eye. He’ll be strong at the end I’m sure and is worth an each way ticket.

5 My Nordic Hero (Bet Now: $8.00) looks a deserving favourite. He’s come back in super order for Chris Waller, running a narrow second to Firsthand first up before making amends with a dominant win in the Festival, the traditional lead up. Looks a more sharp horse this prep and appears to have been set for the race. Sure to be well fancied.

No surprise there has been support for 9 Doubt Defying (Bet Now: $8.00). He was a super winner of the Sale Cup two back before going to the Mackinnon where he ran well and was far from disgraced behind Trap For Fools. Tick over trial last week was very good, back to the mile, a handicap, inside gate, any rain won’t harm…can see him starting much shorter.

If she runs out a strong mile, 15 Organza (Bet Now: $2.60) will go very close to beating these. James Cummings trained mare who was well backed when racing at Rosehill three weeks ago and aided by a lovely steer just off the pace from Josh Parr, the mare chased hard and wore down Reflectivity, who won last Saturday, so the form reads well and third up at the Randwick mile seems an ideal recipe.

3 Dagny (Bet Now: $11.00) is a mare I’m on guard with. Chris Waller trains and she had trialled really well prior to her first up run at Rosehill where she was plain behind Firsthand before getting a mile out of her ground and didn’t get much clear air in the straight behind Arraignment. Two time third up winner and I think the key to her is the weather. If we get rain and the track has give, she’ll improve sharply I’d suggest.

I don’t think he can win but perhaps for wider exotics include the Paul Perry trained 6 The Getaway (Bet Now: $61.00). He needed the run first up over 1500m at Rosehill four weeks ago when last all the way behind impressive winner Notio. Might need this and another, but he’s the sort of horse who could surprise and the stable with their stayers are ticking over nicely.

Leaning the way of 3 Gresham (Bet Now: $6.50) for Chris Waller. He resumed over 1300m at Rosehill a fortnight ago and was very good in defeat behind Mapmaker, and you could make a small case that he should have won given he didn’t really have clear air in the straight. Drops big time in grade/depth and has won with 60kg in the past so the weight won’t be an excuse for mine.

9 Regent (Bet Now: $4.40) had the tag as of a bit of a non winner but his confidence will surely be up after putting them away comfortably at Warwick Farm on the bog at midweeks, finishing best under a lovely ride from Bowman, who remains on. He’s teased for a while but after that win, he might go on with it and fulfill his early promise.

8 Our Belisa (Bet Now: $27.00) is likely using this run as a clean out for the Belle Of The Turf at Gosford in a few days time but she’s capable of running well here if she produces her A1 form. Contested a strong race first up at Rosehill when back off the pace and not really coming on in an on pace dominated affair won by Cradle Mountain. Is a second up winner and likes racing at Randwick so she’s a potential improver.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Seasons

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 15 Organza

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 10 Sambro

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 9

Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 9, 10

Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 15

Leg Four: 2, 3, 8, 9, 14

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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