15/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

Racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, the first meeting held since Cup Week. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.

2 Spirit In The Sky (Bet Now: $5.00) is the interesting runner for mine. He holds a nomination for the Magic Millions and has been well backed in futures markets for the race and the way he has trialled, I’m suggesting a debut win is on the cards. The most recent jump out saw him go straight to the front and he gave nothing else a look in, spanking them and running decent time. Confident he can measure up.

4 Yes Yes Yes (Bet Now: $3.00) is a son of Rubick for Darren Weir who comes through the Moonee Valley 2YO race from a fortnight ago which was won by boom filly Brooklyn Hustle. His effort was more than satisfactory in defeat when running second and his late splits were quite good. Extra trip should suit him but it all depends on how he handles the straight course.

I liked the look of 3 Three Legs In (Bet Now: $15.00) and his jump out. This son of Toorak Toff for the Maher/Eustace team jump out a a few weeks back at Caulfield where he led all the way and he bolted in, running decent time. Then trialled at Cranbourne and was just fair without shooting the lights out. I’m banking on the Caulfield jump out form being brought to the table.

7 Blow Torch (Bet Now: $21.00) for me. Tony McEvoy trains this colt, who debuted over 1200m on Kilmore Cup Day where he didn’t seem to like racing on the track but once he balanced up in the straight, gee he was strong late and put them away for an impressive win. Like him at 1400m on the bigger track, home track and in a tricky race, I reckon he’s one of a few ways you could go.

1 Social Spin (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Darren Weir trained gelding who resumed over 1200m at the Valley a fortnight ago where he got slightly held up behind tired runners and once clear he found the line well enough behind the visually impressive winner Behemoth. Like him up to 1400m with more spacious surroundings and I think he’ll take great improvement from that outing.

3 Bezos (Bet Now: $12.00) looks a progressive three year old for the Busuttin/Young team who has won his past two. Led all the way and gave them a caning to break the maiden tag two back at Seymour before going to Bendigo where he led all the way again. There’s already been a couple of winners from the Bendigo race, he’ll land on speed and prove hard to run down.

I think the best version of 2 Masculino (Bet Now: $3.00) would see him prove too good for this field. Looked in need of the run first up here behind Fifty Stars before going to the Kilmore Cup where he didn’t have much luck in the straight behind Manuel. Third up at 1700m, back to this level, he looks a great price provided he’s the right price. Nothing silly short hopefully.

8 Kentucky Breeze (Bet Now: $6.50) hadn’t done much in a while but he got a win on the board last start on Ballarast Cup Day, appreciating a fast tempo before peeling wide and finishing off best to score. Is a Stakes winner here from his 3YO days, which was his last win prior to Ballarat. Has gate one and the 1720m should be no issue for this galloper.

6 Balcazar (Bet Now: $19.00) seems to save his best for Flemington so returning here should suit. He ran over 1800m at Sandown last time where he got back in the run and never really looked likely behind Mr Monaco. The run prior saw him run well behind Loyalty Man and Manuel here, and that form was franked in the Kilmore Cup. I think he’ll take some beating if he brings that form.

4 Via Balciano (Bet Now: $6.00) will have to carry a big weight but his form looks by far the best on paper and the three kilo claim will help. His run was better than it reads at Ballarat last time out after a poor start and that looks the form race for this. If Lachie King can give him a good steer he should go very close.

16 Cash Affair (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy mare for the Weir team that was somewhat unwanted in betting when resuming over 1100m at Bendigo but nobody told the mare that as she sprouted wings late from near last to get the win. 1200m record is handy and she has a strong second up record. First look down the straight but is a consistent mare who is rarely far away.

14 Heavenward (Bet Now: $20.00) is another to be watched closely. Shaun Dwyer trains this son of Squamosa, who has only won the one race but has been quite consistent overall. He closed off really well in a Bendigo jump out last Tuesday and is drawn the right part of the track here to use his early speed. Interesting to see what the market does.

Looking at this race with Gaulois out. There are a few convictions against these but the most reliable looks to be 1 Chamois Road (Bet Now: $4.80) for Patty Payne. He comes back to Flemington after contesting the Festival at Rosehill where he was on speed and was game in defeat when third to My Nordic Hero. Fabulous record at 1400m and given his record, he isn’t badly treated at the weights.

2 Ulmann (Bet Now: $3.70) can easily bounce back here. Thought he was excellent two back at this track/distance behind Dreamforce before going to the Kilmore Cup where he attempted to lead all the way against his normal racing pattern and rightfully dropped out behind Manuel. Back to 1400, and ridden with cover, I think he’ll be far more effective.

9 Wenner (Bet Now: $9.50) looks the knockout chance the way the speed map reads. Ken Keys trains this gelding, who has been solid enough in two runs back from a break, the latest effort seeing him run fifth at Ballarat three weeks ago when fifth to Haunted. Significant rise in class/depth, but looks to get a good time of it in front and third up, he should be ready fitness wise.

9 Declares War (Bet Now: $3.40) looks, potentially, a really good horse for Darren Weir. He really had no right to win last Friday night at the Valley given where he was in the run but he somehow got clear and savaged the line late to score a remarkable win. He’ll eat up the extra furlong and bigger track for mine, got plenty of upside and clearly plenty of raw talent.

4 Ryan’s Fender (Bet Now: $8.50) is three weeks between runs for the Matt Cumani team since resuming over the mile on Ballarat Cup Day where I thought Prebble rode the four year old a treat but I think the horse was just left in front far too early and couldn’t quite finish it off when fifth to Kentucky Breeze. I think with a bunny to chase, he’ll be far more effective.

5 Okotoks (Bet Now: $13.00) is a progressive son of Ocean Park for Mick Price who just missed first up at Ballarat before racing over 1450m on Kilmore Cup Day where he looked a touch flat but he still found when challenged to win. Looking for more ground, which he gets this time around, and the efforts in the first prep do read well. Definite threat.

I’ll side with 4 Whispering Brook (Bet Now: $4.20). Darren Weir trains this former WA mare, who had her first prep for Weir in the Autumn where she was such a brilliant winner first up at the Valley before ending the campaign in the Robert Sangster behind Shoals, running a game fifth. November 19 jump out at Camperdown was quiet, but she does seem such an explosive horse on the fresh side.

6 Native Soldier (Bet Now: $4.40) is heading towards the 3YO Magic Millions and he kicks off his prep against some talented older horses, so it won’t be an easy task, but he showed what a classy animal he was in the Spring with a couple of brilliant wins. Can’t find a recent jump out but draws the right part of the track and the stable finds C Williams to steer.

9 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $6.00) is bursting to win a race. Just not sure it’s here, but he does have race fitness on his side and a good record down the straight. It was such a poor ride from Nathan Punch last time. Ridden as if it was a barrier trial and rightfully savaged the line to just miss. Up to 1100m will suit…all depends what kind of start he gives those in front.

One horse who will have no trouble running the trip is 11 Californiagrandcru (Bet Now: $12.00) for Team Snowden. He lacks the class of some of these but one thing we do know is that he’ll be strong at the end, which was the case last time at 2400m at Sandown when getting the job done impressively despite sitting wide in the run. Not an overly strong race so confident he runs well.

10 Chapal (Bet Now: $6.00) looks a progressive stayer for Tony McEvoy on the quick back up after outstaying his rivals to win last Wednesday over 2400m at Sandown, aided by a lovely ride from Luke Currie, who took full advantage of gate one and finished best. Was only fourth up there so suspect there is more to come and I think he has to be respected for sure.

If this turns to last man standing I think you could make a small case for 2 Mazaz (Bet Now: $7.00). He’s a real one batter who will stay all day and that was clear to see when slogging it out best to win over 2400m at Rosehill under a lovely ride from Jay Ford. He lacks the class of these, but his 2400m+ record is very good, got upside and isn’t badly treated at the weights. Outside winning chance.

4 Fill The Flute (Bet Now: $6.50) is a mare that is absolutely low flying this time in for Jamie Edwards. She’s 4/4 this campaign, her last win coming over the 1000m at the Valley when showing dazzling speed from a wide gate to lead and she showed good fight late when there to be run down. First look down the straight, but will be on speed and hard to knock a mare with the picket fence.

6 Chatuchak (Bet Now: $14.00) is a definite threat. She resumed against the mares on Ballarat Cup Day three weeks ago where she did work in the run and fought on well in defeat behind Nariko, who was far from disgraced behind Illustrious Lad last Saturday at Morphettville. Run prior was the last run of last prep and she was pipped on the peg down the straight here, so she has to be respected.

14 Bonne Sensation (Bet Now: $31.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth here but I thought there was a touch of dominance about her win last time out at Ararat. Sat just off the speed under Teodore Nugent before edging off the leaders back into clear and she won impressively, drawing clear late. Only carries 52kg and draws out wide, which is usually the A1 spot down the straight.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Declares War

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Spirit In The Sky

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 11 Californiagrandcru

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 9, 11

Leg Two: 4, 6, 9, 11

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 10, 11

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 14

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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