15/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Caulfield Cup day

The Caulfield Carnival continues on Saturday, headlined by one of the showpiece events on the Australian racing calendar, the Caulfield Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Caulfield Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Caulfield Cup

Great to see 1 Quang Tri (Bet Now: $1.75) back at the races. Patrick Payne trained filly that resumes, having not raced since the Winter when second over 1800m at Flemington after doing plenty of work in the run. Just one trial to get ready, but it was a good piece of work, she has quality and is genuine, so watch the market.

5 Desiah (Bet Now: $2.40) is dangerous if she can settle closer in the run. She was back near last in the run last time in the Jim Moloney and was never a factor, she worked to the line pretty well late in the piece behind Waltz On By. Has shown in previous runs she can settle closer in the run, so if that eventuates, she appeals.

2 Berry Bubbly (Bet Now: $13.00) is third pick, but a distant third pick. She has contested Stakes races throughout the prep and hasn’t really measured up, but clearly has contested races far stronger than this. Stable is flying at the moment, and with a wet track, anything goes really.

11 Cap De Joie (Bet Now: $1.95) clearly on top for me. Promising mare for Nick Ryan that has done little wrong since arriving in Australia. Latest run came at Sandown on Underwood Day and was outstanding from the back when a closing second to Picarones. Tricky draw to overcome, but if she gets a drag into the race, good luck beating her. Keen.

6 Saint Bathans (Bet Now: $3.80) is a key chance. Thrown in the deep end last time in the Seymour Cup at Bendigo but I thought his finale from near last on the turn when a close up fourth to Noname Lane. That was his first run in a few weeks, so you’d think there is room for improvement.

3 Right You Are (Bet Now: $8.00) looks like he is enjoying life under the care of the Maher/Eustace camp. First run for them came at Sandown and he was very good from the back in a strong return behind The Garden. Over a month between runs and straight to 1700m, but it’s a set up right in the wheel house of this stable.

2 Red Sun Sensation (Bet Now: $3.90) is racing like he will eat up 2000m. He ran second to Mr Maestro in the Super Impose and although well held by the Kiwi, he kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat. Is bred to eat up the trip and if he can settle closer in the run, he’ll be quite dangerous.

1 Mr Maestro (Bet Now: $1.65) looks the best of the 3YO boys from a Derby perspective away from the Caulfield Guineas. He won the Super Impose two weeks ago at Flemington where Lane put him into a sweet spot behind the speed and once he was presented clear air, he put them away and was dominant. 2000m no issue and is the one to beat.

Giving respect to 5 Muramasa (Bet Now: $6.50). Busuttin/Young trained three year old that has had two career outings. Big win from the back on debut at Sale before going to the Stutt at The Valley and was solid enough against the track pattern behind Tijuana. He’ll eat up 2000m on the bigger track and the depth is very thin, overall.

5 Renaissance Woman (Bet Now: $5.00) is the one I am keen on from the Oaks perspective so I am keen to see her at 2000m. She ran two weeks ago in the Flight Stakes and given the race shape, she had no chance, but loved the way she kept finding the line behind a quality filly, Zougotcha. She’s bred to eat up 2000m+ and she gets it here. Keen on her chances.

3 Pavitra (Bet Now: $5.50) will have no issue with 2000m. Team Freedman trained filly from Sydney that ran in the Flight Stakes. She was near the speed and was left flat footed when the sprint went on but she picked up late and was good to the line and through it. She’ll be near the front and for mine, she’s looking for more ground, which she gets here.

1 Moko (Bet Now: $5.50) should appreciate a rise to 2000m. Given none fresh when a narrow second on the Synthetic at Pakenham. She then went to the Edward Manifold where she was back in the run and couldn’t really get a chance to build into the race. I think she’s going well and at 2000m, she gets another chance.

12 Angry Skies (Bet Now: $3.90) is a nice horse for Team Hayes. Gave the clock a good workout when a debut winner at Swan Hill. He then went to Sandown and was very good nearer the inside behind Bank Maur, a form race which stood up in the Caulfield Guineas. That has to read well for this.

8 Eponymous (Bet Now: $4.50) looks a three year old of good talent. He was quite good fresh at the Warwick Farm midweeks behind Cinderella Days before going to The Valley on Moir Night and worked home strongly late, helped by the bias, when second to Kaygeebee. Love him up in trip and has good upside.

15 Garza Blanca (Bet Now: $7.50) is a very interesting animal. Maher/Eustace trained three year old that was too bad to be true on debut at Sandown. He then went to a Murtoa maiden two weeks back and gee he won like a track gallop, giving them an absolute caning. Not sure Caulfield will suit him, better suited at Flemington IMO, but he has talent under the hood.

14 Neverstandingstill (Bet Now: $6.50) is a pretty tough mare for Phil Sweeney. She has won four of eight, winning her last three, the latest at Sandown, leading all the way and she was there to be run down, she found under pressure and was strong late in winning. She’ll jump on the bunny, handles all conditions and is tough.

11 A Very Fine Red (Bet Now: $4.80) is Stakes class when right and is certainly capable of measuring up. Market said she would need the run when resuming a few weeks ago at Rosehill and it was right. She got back from the inside gate and did make up some headway without threatening behind Fox Fighter. Better for the run and she showed in the Autumn she can be Stakes class.

16 Niccolite (Bet Now: $41.00) is a Grahame Begg trained mare that has solid wet track stats, so she commands some level of respect. Ran three weeks back at Mornington where she got back in the run and was good late without threatening behind Apres La Mer. Gets back, but should be strong late.

11 Asfoora (Bet Now: $4.80) looks a Stakes class horse and hoping she can confirm that here. She spanked them fresh at Sandown before going to the 955m at The Valley where she was smashed in betting but the rub of the green didn’t go her way and it was an ugly watch. Jumps on the bunny, hopefully, has clear air from the outset, and has the change up speed to put them away.

2 Generation (Bet Now: $3.90) commands respect. He was kept quite safe in betting when running in the Moir at The Valley where he was near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well when a close up fourth to stablemate Coolangatta. Has the runs on the board to give this a shake.

8 Ashford Street (Bet Now: $11.00) is the best wet tracker in the field and did bolt up at this track on wet ground during the Winter. He ran in the 955m that Asfoora mentioned above and he was another that didn’t have much luck in a messy race. I reckon if you like Asfoora, which I do, you have to like this guy.

6 Flying Mascot (Bet Now: $7.50) is getting towads D-Day I feel. Just runs in two efforts this prep. Condition gave way fresh in the Cockram before going to the Let’s Elope where she was on speed and tired late in a plain finale behind Kissonallforcheeks. Hard fit now, this is D-Day I feel. Just hope she leads, gets control and brings her best.

9 Chain Of Lightning (Bet Now: $5.00) can bounce back. Jamie Kah just went too slow on her here a few weeks ago in the How Now and waited far too long to push the button. It allowed the mare with the best turn of foot, Zapateo, to come to the fore and she was too good. Think with a more genuine tempo here, Chain Of Lightning can get back into the winners list.

3 Excelida (Bet Now: $17.00) has a real love affair with 1400m and comes here in winning form off the back of a strong win in the Rose Of Kingston. Mick Dee gave her a peach steer off the speed, presented her at the right time and in a driving go, she was able to finish best. Has upside to come, she’s a key chance.

Grahame Begg has had just one race in mind for 6 Nonconformist (Bet Now: $12.00) and that is the Caulfield Cup. He ran a beauty on Saturday in the Might And Power. Flat footed when they put the sprint on but really liked the way he finished his race off behind Anamoe. That’s the proper WFA form and he used that race to run second to Incentivise last year. He’s right on track.

10 Benaud (Bet Now: $10.00) is the main threat IMO. He too ran in the Might And Power last Saturday and closed off his race well late behind Anamoe, just running out of puff the final 50m as a pipe opener for this race. He was very costly two back in the Kingston Town but the talent is there and his lone 2400m run, he ran so well behind a star, Hitotsu.

2400m is a slight query with 5 Numerian (Bet Now: $13.00) but I think he is going really well. Resumed with a strong second in the Chelmsford before going to the Hill Stakes and he was game in defeat, but no match for a ripper in Cascadian. I think if he can get a soft trip near the speed, 2400m will be fine, and he has the quality to measure up.

11 Aegon (Bet Now: $6.50) is a swimmer with class. Resumed two weeks ago at Te Rapa over 1200m and really, the ride was that of a horse out there to trial pretty much, so scrap that. Go back to previous form, he was more than competitive in Group l WFA races…he’s right in the mix if he’s anywhere near right.

Back to 1400m I do like for 16 Lady Of Honour (Bet Now: $3.50). She ran over the mile in the Stocks at The Valley last time where she attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but was nabbed late by Daisies in a blanket finish. Lands on speed here and won’t mind juice in the track.

7 Open Minded (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Caulfield 1400m specialist so he commands respect returning to the track/distance. Too bad to be true in the Testa Rossa at Sandown behind I Wish I Win and didn’t pull up 100% post race. Third to I Wish I Win at this track/distance the start prior, don’t bin him off last start.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 11 Cap De Joie

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 5 Renaissance Woman

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 6 Flying Mascot

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 8, 9, 11

Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 8, 9

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11

Leg Four: 3, 7, 11, 16

$50 Investment = 6.25% of the dividend if successful

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