Saturday racing in Melbourne returns to Caulfield this weekend for a handy nine event program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:50) : Racing Photos Handicap (90) 2000m:
Back Me: 5 Raw Impulse (Best Odds: $1.33) looks the clear way to go here. He ran over 1800m here three weeks back and I really liked the way he wanted to win and the strong desire he had to chase them down and then draw clear like a good horse. Nominated for the Doomben Cup next Saturday, so obviously the stable rate him highly. Should win this.
Big Danger: 3 Golden Mane (Best Odds: $11.00) ran home strongly over this track/distance three weeks ago when third to Doctor Care, a stablemate of Killarney Kid, who won again last weekend in Adelaide. Can he turn the tables on Doctor Care? For sure.
Roughie: 4 Gingerboy (Best Odds: $21.00) was fantastic last time out when winning the Galleywood during the Carnival at Warrnambool. He is a star over the jumps, but is very capable on the flat. Not sure he can beat Raw Impulse, but he should run well.
Race Two (12:25) : Phil Sly Memorial Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Gimlet (Best Odds: $4.00) resumed for Darren Weir in the Gold Strike during the Warrnambool and despite not being happy on the heavy track she proved too good for her rivals in a solid return to the track. When she was trained by Peter Moody, there was a bit of a boom on her, and now she has the Weir polish, she can certainly take the next step.
Big Danger: 1 Blue Tycoon (Best Odds: $3.30) looked in awful trouble when resuming at Morphettville a couple of weeks back but Matty Neilson shoved the gelding into the clear and he really attacked the line to win impressively in a race which did have a bit of depth. Should take good improvement from that and will prove hard to hold out.
Roughie: 2 Bringaroo (Best Odds: $4.00) is a handy colt for the Hayes/Dabernig yard that resumes here. He kicked off his career with three runs in the Summer, highlighted by a dominant win at Geelong, beating home a subsequent Flemington winner in Lessyd. Hasn’t caught my attention at the jump outs, but no doubt he will be forward enough to run well fresh in a tricky race.
Race Three (13:00) : Arvanitis Philanthropy Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Khutulun (Best Odds: $8.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Luke Oliver. This mare hasn’t raced since finishing a game second to Burning Front in the VOBIS Gold Star (1500m) at the Valley. Jump outs have been encouraging, trained on the track and she is a three time first up winner.
Big Danger: 7 Shades Of Bella (Best Odds: $4.40) was well backed during the Warrnambool Carnival last week and ran on strongly late when second to Voodoo Lad. Third up now, so she should be at peak fitness and is a definite live chance.
Roughie: 10 Sea Spray (Best Odds: $17.00) resumed over 1000m here and closed off well late in the piece when sixth to Bella Capri. Hasn’t won in some time, but the first up run was encouraging and she will be strong late.
Race Four (13:35) : Comdain Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Lyuba (Best Odds: $3.00) kicked off her career with three wins before coming here last start where she looked home but couldn’t hold out the finishing brilliant burst of subsequent Group l winner Abbey Marie. Extremely well weighted after the claim and should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 5 Francais (Best Odds: $4.80) made her Victorian debut in that Abbey Marie race and she was a real eye catcher, closing off strongly from near last to run third, beaten just under two lengths. She’ll get back again, but the speed looks genuine here, so she’ll get her chance to storm home again.
Roughie: 9 Miles Of Krishan (Best Odds: $8.50) debuted at the Sandown Lakeside course a couple of weeks back and produced a lovely turn of foot from off the speed to win impressively. Harder here, but there was a bit to like about that win and only has upside.
Race Five (14:15) : Peter Jackson Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 15 Leonforte (Best Odds: $13.00) is a talented type that resumes for the Tony McEvoy yard. This gelding is unbeaten fresh and on his previous form, he’d have to be rated as one of the leading contenders.
Big Danger: 4 Bascule (Best Odds: $6.00) is a former talented mare for Chris Waller but is now with Darren Weir and comes here off a two month freshen up. Creates good interest and she is a watch horse, both from the mounting yard and the market.
Roughie: 17 Absolute Treasure (Best Odds: $67.00) didn’t do much first up at Sandown before Airalign (Meets that horse here 4.5kg better here) before being backed at Bendigo and running on late behind Any Dream Will Do, who he meets $5 kg better off here. I can really see this horse running a very cheeky race at huge odds.
Race Six (14:55) : The Jericho Cup In 2018 Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Unbreakable (Best Odds: $2.45) was given a beaut on speed steer from Craig Williams to win over 1800m here a fortnight back, controlling the race from the front and giving nothing else a chance. Probably won’t get it his own way again, but the claim for Mick Dee helps and generally with these three year old races over trips, they go on with it.
Big Danger: 3 Red Alto (Best Odds: $5.00) was the eye catcher in that Unbreakable race, making up good ground from the back then racing a touch tight late in the piece. He will love the rise to 2000m, and from the good draw, he won’t be as far back.
Roughie: 15 Meru (Best Odds: $21.00) drops in grade and distance after running in the St Leger where she ran well but was no match at all for Cool Chap. This looks more her level and distance, and a good run here could see her on the float to Queensland for the Oaks, and Pat Moloney rides Pat Carey horses very well.
Race Seven (15:35) : Yellowglen Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Ability (Best Odds: $3.30) is on the back up from racing here a couple of weeks back where he loomed to win the race but the long searching run just told late and he had to settle for a close up second to Nudierudie. Been given a little break to get over that gut buster and if he has come through it well, he should take some beating here.
Big Danger: 1 Bassett (Best Odds: $5.00) ran fifth here a fortnight back and his effort was outstanding given he was four wide no cover on a hot speed and was still there with 100m to go before tiring late. With a more economical trip here, he can definitely beat these.
Roughie: The horse that beat Ability was 3 Nudierudie (Best Odds: $7.50), and she was quite impressive himself in winning given she was first up and rising sharply in grade. Not sure she can maintain that margin over Ability, but she has to rate as a genuine winning chance given how well the stable is going
Race Eight (16:15) : Brett & Mark Wilson Sprint (90) 1100m:
Back Me: 14 Pilly’s Wish (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed over 1000m here three weeks back against the mares and looked a little unlucky behind Bella Capri given she had not much room in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. Newitt goes aboard now from the good draw, and looks the really good overs at $13.
Big Danger: 11 Olivier (Best Odds: $8.50) continued his really good first up record with a strong and gritty win over this track/distance, thanks to a gun ride from leading apprentice Ben Allen. His second up record isn’t as strong, but there was a bit to like about that win and he can measure up for sure with the rise in grade.
Roughie: 4 Lonrockstar (Best Odds: $8.50) has been given a freshen up since running over 1000m at Sandown five weeks back where he finished midfield behind Bullpit, beaten 2.5L, and that horse has run well several times since to frank the form. Not sure if he has had a jump out, but he runs very well on the fresh side and can produce a brilliant sectional.
Race Nine (16:50) : Tile Importer City Timber Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Lord Durante (Best Odds: $7.00) looks ready to win now. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight back and was met with good support when just failing to pick up Charmed Harmony. He has upside, saves his best for Caulfield and does look the leader. If he can get there without too much trouble, he’ll take some stopping. Also a big watch on 13 Minnie Downs, who looks ready to fire now.
Big Danger: 12 Every Faith (Best Odds: $6.50) ran on Anzac Day at Flemington and was given an absolute peach of a steer from Bossy to get the job done and get past the tough on speed mare Written. Fourth up now, so she should be at peak fitness now and prove tough to beat back on her home track despite the poor record here.
Roughie: 13 Minnie Downs (Best Odds: $26.00) is my best knockout hope right across Australia for the afternoon. She was a hidden run first up behind She’s Miss Devine before going to Flemington where she looked to travel and looked a hope, but her fitness just gave way. Third up now at the mile at Caulfield, where she has performed well at previously and she does tumble down to 52kg after the claim.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 8 Lord Durante
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Unbreakable
VALUE: Race Five Number 19 Leonforte
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 13, 15
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Three: 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 17
Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15
$50 Investment= 4.62% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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