A really strong nine race card has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday with some serious horse flesh on display across several blacktype races. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:10) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1400m
10 Autumn Ridge (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) had been testing my patience for a while but Mel O’Gorman has done a fab job with him in recent times, with the gelding winning his past two in impressive fashion. Put them away impressively two back over 1400m at Gunnedah before stepping back to 1200m at Tamworth and he was even more impressive again, albeit in a weak race, but he was coming back in trip, and the fact he won tells me he’s going really well and is worth a throw at the stumps here.
The other horse I want to have something on is 1 Equal Balance (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS), on the seven day back up after racing over 1200m in the Highway last Saturday at Taree, his first run in a month and his late splits from the back against the pattern of the day was good behind Lady Demi. Off that, 1400m should be fine and his Highway form overall does read very well.
6 Haames (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) has a decent record in Highway races and has plenty of upside. Had one soft trial leading into his resumption over 1250m at Taree when a total forgive behind Casino Mondial due to him being hampered by the riderless galloper. Picked up and was good late. Think 1600m at Randwick will be when he comes into his own, perhaps 1500m here too, but he’s got the Highway runs on the board.
Race 2. (12:50) Everest Carnival Handicap (78) 1800m
7 Humbolt Current (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets a great chance here. Beat all bar Royal Ace two back at Flemington before going to the 2000m here where he got back and was never a factor on the wet track but found the line really well late when fourth to Mrs Madrid. Like him back to 1800m and the big key for mine is getting back on top of the ground.
10 Le Lude (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a John Thompson trained mare who looks suited up to 1800m. She had specking when racing over 1500m here two weeks ago and closed off strongly, producing the best late splits of the race when second to the hard fit/in form Wimlah. Her form suggests wet tracks are her go in life, but like the way she’s going at the moment and is a definite threat.
2 Cogliere (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t won in a little while for Marc Quinn but he isn’t going too bad this prep. He comes through the Taree Cup where he had a reasonable run just off the speed and found the line well enough when third to the then in form Hogmanay. I reckon 2000m sees him right out, so like him back to 1800m and is one to include in multiples I’d suggest.
Race 3. (13:25) Hyland Race Colours Handicap (78) 1500m
He’s got a pretty lean strike rate but convinced that 5 Irukandji (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is going well. His first up run behind Prime Candidate was a ripper, with that form being well and truly franked. He then raced on the bog here two weeks ago and couldn’t pick his feet up behind Adana. Gets back on top of the ground, which he is clearly looking for, and he’ll do me here.
7 Adana… (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) good lord. Been on him both runs to start the prep, had enough, dropped off, and of course he comes out and wins next start, but it was a slog to get past Shock Alert here two weeks ago but he got there. I think that well and truly confirmed he’s a better horse with give in the track, which I doubt he’ll get here, but now he has the win on the board, his confidence could go up.
3 Mapmaker (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is an absolute beauty for Tim Martin and he finds his A1 track/distance, the Rosehill 1500m. Took a sit last Wednesday on the Kenso track and was there to be gunned down late but Hippo got the best out of him and in a driving go just got the win. That showed he can win whilst taking a sit, but I think he’s much better when leading and rolling.
Race 4. (14:00) Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (78) 2400m
11 Castel Sant’Angelo (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a tough, tough campaigner for the WaterBott stable who slogged it out best to win two back at Warwick Farm before racing on the Kenso track last Wednesday when having an epic battle with Terwilliker, with that horse just getting the verdict in an extremely close photo finish. He’ll put himself on speed and give his all and prove hard to get past.
Good little test for 3 Dabiyr (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) but Chris Waller does look to have a progressive stayer on his hands. He is three weeks between runs since racing over 2400m at the Valley where Walker always had him in the sweet spot just off the speed. It was a matter of pushing the button and once he did, he put them away and was impressive. I think with hard race fitness, he can run well.
7 Desert Path (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) isn’t far off doing something positive I think. He’s teased in a few runs this prep, the latest run coming three weeks ago over 2400m at Randwick when okay in defeat behind the in form Our Candidate, but in saying that was well held. Gets onto his home track now, hard fit…it’s almost D-Day for him. If he can’t do anything positive here, back to the midweeks.
Race 5. (14:35) Dulcify Stakes 1500m
1 Castelvecchio (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a good thing IMO. High class three year old who returns to racing for Richard Litt. Has had two trials in readiness for his resumption. Loved the way he found the line late in the trial behind Redzel, then trialled last week without the blinkers and looked very good. If they can run on from the back and the track is playing fair, he’s too good for these.
6 Just Thinkin’ (Bet Now: $8.50) looks a near spitting image of his older Thinkin’ Big so keen to see how he goes en route to a Spring Champion/Derby. He broke the maiden tag last time out at Warwick Farm, leading throughout and giving a really good kick when asked. In the right stable, has the right racing pattern and I’m sure he’ll be in it for a long way. Hard to beat.
13 My Sweet Fish (Bet Now: $126.00) deserves a crack at this kind of race. She’s really turned the corner in recent times for the John Sargent stable. Finished with real purpose to break the maiden two back at Wyong before going to Nowra where she got back to near last in the run but produced a brilliant finale to get the job done again. 1500m should be fine and stable is having a decent run.
Race 6. (15:10) Run To The Rose 1200m
4 Exceedance (Bet Now: $2.15) is the boom colt and will need to back up what he did here two weeks ago when spanking them in the San Domenico. Visually and on the clock, he was super. I’m just questioning the depth of the field he beat. Yes, Bivouac was dynamic at Caulfield, but that form hasn’t really stood up and he was made to look ordinary by Exceedance. I want to see Exceedance do it again before jumping on the bandwagon.
Is 5 Dawn Passage (Bet Now: $5.50) a Golden Rose contender? I think we’ll get a good guide after this race. He was an impressive winner of the Rosebud first up at Rosehill a few weeks ago, but the race was set up for him due to the strong tempo set by Cardiff and he finished right over the top. 1200m second up looks a perfect set up and should take some beating.
I reckon enough work has gone into 1 Prince Fawaz (Bet Now: $19.00) to run well first up despite the colt likely being better over further. The JJ Atkins winner has had a couple of decent exhibition gallops between races along with a fast trial behind Evening Slippers, so he’s got the grounding to run well first up. The query obviously is will they be too sharp for him?
Race 7. (15:50) Theo Marks Stakes 1300m
The potential is here that we could see something very special in the shape of 6 Arcadia Queen (Bet Now: $1.90). I know this isn’t her GF, but she could easily be in talks as the best in Australia given what she did during the Perth Carnival last year. Now with Chris Waller with eyes towards the Everest and Golden Eagle, she’s looked great in a couple of trials and like her at 1300m fresh.
11 Trope (Bet Now: $4.80) has to be one of the hardest to beat. Team Hawkes trains this four year old, who produced an outstanding finale from the back to get within a lip of beating Deprive in the Show County three weeks ago at Randwick. He’s got the motor of a Group l horse, but his racing pattern is just awful and if he is to reach that level, he’s got to improve it. If he can here, he’ll take some beating.
I think this will be a good test to see if 12 Baller (Bet Now: $7.00) could head down the Everest path because a win here and I’m sure Anthony Cummings will have eyes on the Schillaci, the win and you’re in race for the Everest via the MRC. He’s on the seven day back up after bolting in last Saturday at Randwick. Really good depth to this field, but he’s above average and is hard fit.
Race 8. (16:30) Sheraco Stakes 1200m
She isn’t one of mine and can be hard to trust but the race just sets up so well for 4 Champagne Cuddles (Bet Now: $3.60). Bjorn Baker thinks she’s an outside chance for a spot in the Everest so if that’s the case, I’m going to assume she’s wound up to perhaps make a statement, her two trials have been good and the way I’m reading it, she’ll land box seat behind Ready To Prophet and run very well.
9 Mizzy (Bet Now: $4.60) looks to have returned in excellent order for the in form Anthony Cummings team. Trialled like a bomb prior to resuming in the Toy Show three weeks back at Randwick and she was dominant in winning, with help from a good gate and a lovely steer from Tommy Berry. Harder here, but looked to work very well between races last Saturday and appears ready to go.
11 Dyslexic (Bet Now: $9.00) is a knockout chance. Team Hawkes trains this mare, who had just one soft trial leading into her resumption in the Toy Show and I thought she was quite good from the back behind Mizzy, with her condition and coat not 100%, so she’ll take really good improvement from that run, and trained on the track, I think she’ll run a beauty at decent odds.
Race 9. (17:10) Fugen Constructions Sprint (88) 1100m
The gelding operation has been the track for 14 God Of Thunder (Bet Now: $2.20). Outstanding resumption on the Kenso track behind subsequent winner Royal Witness before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where he had the beaut sit off the speed, wide and out of trouble, and it was just a matter of how far. He’s come back really well and confident he can measure up.
1 All Too Royal (Bet Now: $4.80) is an absolute beauty for the Maher/Eustace team. Has had six runs in Sydney and has run very well bar one, which was last run last prep where he was a tired horse. Bolted up on the Kenso track a month ago and while the overall form of that race might be a tad suspect, he loves Rosehill and Robbie Dolan remains on, so ticks a few boxes.
Firmer footing should really help 6 Beau Ideal (Bet Now: $9.50). Import for James Cummings who resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back where he didn’t appear 100% happy on the bog track and the race shape set up by You Make Me Smile was against him. Forgive and forget he went around I think and now on top of the ground, I think he’ll run a much improved race.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 4 Exceedance
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Castelvecchio
LONG SHOT: Race One Number 10 Autumn Ridge
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4
Leg Two: 6
Leg Three: 3, 4, 9, 11, 13
Leg Four: 1, 6, 14, 16
$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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