Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday where the feature race is the Winter Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:35) ATC Handicap 1400m
3 Laburnum (Bet Now: $4.40) should take some beating. James Cummings trains this filly, who resumed at the Canterbury midweeks and tried hard but was no match for a potential Group l winner in Smart Melody. She should have no trouble with the 1400m and generally, the stable runners improve sharply second up given they are usually big in condition fresh.
1 The Fire Trap (Bet Now: $3.70) creates interest here. Desleigh Forster train this youngster, who ran in the B J McLachlan two weeks back at the Sunny Coast and he did a really good job to get the win given he was on speed and had to dig in late when challenged by an above average type in Unconditional. 1400m a query, but have to respect the stable when they come to Sydney.
7 Rock Zone (Bet Now: $14.00) is on the quick back up for David Payne after running over 1200m last Saturday at Randwick where he got back to near last in a fast run race so he had his chance to run on and he did despite being not 100% happy on the surface behind Helaku. He’ll eat up 1400m on firmer footing and is on his home track.
Race 2. (12:10) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1100m
Have to give 7 Roman Typhoon (Bet Now: $5.00) another chance. Ran in the Highway Sixtysix Highway race last Saturday at Randwick where JVO dropped the whip halfway down the straight, and given this horse is a thinker, I think that potentially cost him the win. Back to 1100m is the query, but he’s got the talent to overcome that.
2 Rekindled Force (Bet Now: $2.60) is a well bred son of Redoute’s Choice resuming for Paul Messara. This bloke created a really good impression in his first prep, winning his first two before running fourth to Unforgotten, who of course is one of the best fillies/mares in Australia. Two trials leading in have been and there looks to be intent to win first up.
9 Dragoneight (Bet Now: $17.00) is a horse I doubt wins but for exotics I could include him. He ran over 1000m last start at Taree on a day where those on speed were advantaged yet he worked home quite well I thought behind Lobban Hood. Should park off a hot speed here and is right down in the weights.
Race 3. (12:45) #theraces Handicap (75) 1800m
Leaning the way of 2 Jolly Honour (Bet Now: $6.20). This bloke is five weeks between runs since winning an absolute slog over 2000m at Randwick, proving too good for Laussel, who franked the form by winning at Canterbury last Wednesday. He does look a real stayer, so if this turns into last man standing, he’ll be right in contention.
I like 1 Asterius (Bet Now: $4.20) as a horse and the 1800m looks perfect for this three year old. Was run off his legs early a fortnight back over 1500m here but once the leaders stopped, he built up the revs, poked his way through the field and finished best in a pretty good win. Only third up here, so he should have upside and 1800m no issue for mine.
4 Laussel (Bet Now: $6.20) looks to be going quite well at the moment for James Cummings. This filly was good two back over 2000m behind Jolly Honour before stepping back to 1550m at Canterbury and aided by a Angland peach, she won. I like her back up to 1800m and she should do no work from the gate with Blake Shinn steering.
Race 4. (13:20) Spring On Sale Sprint (81) 1100m
6 Alassio (Bet Now: $2.60) on top. Glad they pulled her out of the 1400m race at Randwick a couple of weeks ago because the set up was just awful for her, but this looks better. She’s unbeaten in three outings, the latest on Kensington when controlling things from the front and finding plenty late when challenged. Should lead here and take some beating.
2 In Times Of War (Bet Now: $8.00) is a bit of a bludger but she should have confidence off the back of a win at the Gold Coast where McNab rode her aggressively, finding the front and kicking on strongly in the straight to score. Back in Sydney and she looks to get a lovely sit of Alassio. Definite chance for mine.
A dry track and a cold ride could see 12 Moccasin Miss (Bet Now: $23.00) run a race at odds. She resumed over 1100m last Wednesday at Canterbury where she was worse than midfield and pulling a touch, which left her without many petrol tickets late behind Unwise. She showed last prep that on dry ground she can be city competitive.
Race 5. (13:55) TAB Rewards Handicap (80) 1200m
He’s a bit of a tease, but I’ll lean the way of 5 Smartedge (Bet Now: $4.60). Takes on the older horses for Team Snowden but his three runs this time in have been quite good, the latest coming at this track/distance six weeks ago when working home well behind Dawn Dawn. Been given the little break and the tick over trial at Randwick a couple of weeks ago looked pretty good to the eye.
4 Star Of Monsoon (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented son of Lonhro that resumes for the Gerald Ryan team. This bloke returned as a gelding last prep and it’s clearly turned the corner for him, winning two and placing in another three from five outings. Has had a couple of solid trials for his resumption and stable has a good strike rate when producing them fresh.
3 Level Eight (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Team Snowden trained gelding resuming. He’s only won the three from 23, so he doesn’t fill you with much confidence but last prep he did place behind the likes of Malaise, Peacock and Flow, which should be good enough to be competitive here. Good fresh horse and his two trials have been encouraging.
Race 6. (14:30) Sydney West App Handicap (80) 2000m
4 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $4.00) is an Irish import for Ciaron Maher who was so dynamic when making his Australian debut with a Sandown win prior to racing at Caulfield where he looked to have the second up syndrome somewhat. Wasn’t as brilliant but ground away pretty well behind Haripour. That form looks really good and third up at 2000m, it’s an ideal recipe.
9 Raqeeq (Bet Now: $6.00) had good market support when resuming over 1500m here two weeks ago and given the way the race was run, I thought he closed off really well late in the piece behind Coonawarra. First time at 2000m+ since coming to Australia, so I’m pretty keen to see what he does given the amount of upside he has.
Look out for an improved showing from 6 Monasterio (Bet Now: $14.50). First two runs this time in, both on good ground, were very good, but he has done little to nothing since in three subsequent wet track runs, the latest coming last Saturday behind Just Shine. Should be put to sleep on the fence, and back on top of the ground, I reckon he can run well up to 2000m.
Race 7. (15:10) Winter Stakes 1400m
If he ticks the racing clockwise box, I think 5 Chamois Road (Bet Now: $9.50) is a near good thing to run top three. He’s an absolute beauty for Patrick Payne and the horse could have easily gone to the Winter Championship Final last week, but the stable elects to run here. 1400m is perfect, gate is perfect and Billy Egan has all the options in the world. Great each way bet for mine.
3 Dreamforce (Bet Now: $3.00) is racing superbly this prep. Outstanding winner first up over 1100m at Randwick before going to the Civic a fortnight back where he looked all over a winner but was nailed on the peg by Liapari. Third up at 1400m, and perhaps with a more conservative ride, he’ll be much better off.
12 Danish Twist (Bet Now: $23.00) is the one that interests me at odds. At her best, she can certainly beat these, but does need things to go her way. She needs a dry track and cover, and I think she’ll get both of those things. Didn’t get that in the Civic and dropped out behind Liapari. Probably couldn’t back her to win, but she’s in the quaddie.
Race 8. (15:50) Tab.com.au Handicap (92) 1200m
Leaning the way of 13 Albumin (Bet Now: $3.90) because he has returned a different horse this time in. Talent has been there for all to see, but the endeavour and want to win hasn’t. That’s all changed, winning his past two at Rosehill in impressive fashion. Hasn’t raced for just under a month, but a fast run 1200m on a good track, gee he looks well placed.
8 Easy Eddie (Bet Now: $7.00) put in an absolute shocker on the Randwick bog two back before backing up a week later at Rosehill against the older horses where he got weight relief and a lovely ride near the speed from Adkins to prove too good. He’ll be much better on top of the ground, but just creeping up in the weights.
Giving 5 Suspense (Bet Now: $19.00) a look. He hasn’t won for a little while but I think the set up is here for him to run well and perhaps even threaten to win after working home well in a strong sprint race at Rosehill behind Easy Eddie. Firmer footing will help, 1200m, big track…he gets his chance to get back into the winners list.
Race 9. (16:30) ATC Owners Benefit Card Handicap (85) 1500m
Takes on the older horses but I like 14 Nicci’s Gold (Bet Now: $7.50). She ran against her own age at this track/distance two weeks ago and did a pretty good job in defeat I thought after getting a mile back in the off a hot speed to close off and run fourth to Asterius. She’s got a really good finale on her and isn’t badly treated at the weights.
9 Impavido…(Bet Now: $8.50) gee he’s a nightmare. Has only won the one race from 14 starts, but the talent is clearly there for all to see. Just needs to produce it on race day. Stuck on well last time at Randwick on the wet surface behind High Mist in running fourth. I think firmer footing will help his cause and third up, he should be at peak fitness.
6 Cosmic Engine (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Chris Waller trained gelding who had trialled up well prior to resuming at this track/distance a fortnight back where he got back in an on pace dominated affair and couldn’t come on at all behind Coonawarra. He’s becoming a bit costly to follow, but I think you have to give him another chance.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 13 Albumin
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Laburnum
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 14 Nicci’s Gold
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 9, 11
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 11, 12
Leg Three: 5, 6, 8, 13
Leg Four: 6, 9, 14, 15
$50 Investment=12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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