14/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Natasha Stakes day

A nine race meeting has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday, where it is Natasha Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Dom To Shoot (Bet Now: $2.05) gets the nod for me in the opener. Three weeks between runs for Sean Casey since racing over 1100m here where he sat off a good speed before angling clear and finishing off strongly, just missing out on the win when second to Watch Me Dance in a bob of the head finish. Up to 1200m looks perfect and should prove a leading chance.

3 Champagne Diva (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Luke Fernie trained filly that steps up to 1200m after breaking through for win number one over 1000m here back Feb 26, leading throughout and though got the staggers late, was able to cling on. If she can stretch that speed out to 1200m, with Azzopardi to steer, she’ll take some beating for sure.

8 Queen Brown (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Patronize filly for Dan Morton that is on debut. This girl has had two trials in readiness for her first start, the latest coming over 1000m at Belmont last week and didn’t mind the way she went about her business. Stable is having a good run at the moment, so I’d watch the market with her.

Want to give 2 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $2.70) another chance. This Team Williams trained mare was somewhat unwanted late in betting when resuming over 1400m here two weeks ago and the market got it right. She was in the right spot but couldn’t finish it off and have to mark her down as disappointing when fifth to Yeah Dardy. Up to the mile, fitter, giving her another chance.

1 Media Baron (Bet Now: $2.60) is flying for David Harrison. Put together an impressive sequence of wins prior to racing in the Esperance Cup last start over 2000m and really, he should have won. Just had no luck in the straight and when he did get clear, the race was over. Still managed to savage the line and just miss. Back to the mile a negative, but he’s the form horse here.

3 Bella’s Idol (Bet Now: $11.00) is going to win races I’m sure. This mare ran at this track/distance last Saturday where she was second up off a long break and tried very hard, but didn’t have the turn of foot to put them away and just grinded to the line in fifth. Think a rise in trip would be perfect, so remaining at 1600m is the knock.

Banking on sustained speed getting 6 Mervyn (Bet Now: $6.00) home. Luke Fernie trains this speed demon, who resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago where he ran some sizzling splits in front and really, gave nothing else a look in, winning impressively and running good time. Little query at 1200m, but he’ll look the winner for the most part. Hopefully he holds on.

3 Chix Pic (Bet Now: $3.20) is the one I’m most wary of. This mare ran behind Mervyn over 1000m here two weeks ago and just got too far back, plus was held up for the most part in the straight and didn’t get the clearest of paths. Up to 1200m looks perfect and with better luck this time around, she’ll go close to knocking off Mervyn.

4 Floyd (Bet Now: $3.80) hasn’t won in nearly two years but to be fair to him, he is racing well. He ran third to Mervyn over 1000m here two weeks ago and his run had merit to it given he was back near last in the run and just spotted the leader/winner too much head start. Can sit much closer in the run and his best is clearly good enough.

Good little test here for 5 Sherpa Lass (Bet Now: $1.95) but all you can do is win and that is what she has done in her short career to date, winning 3/3. Latest of those wins came over 1100m here two weeks ago and loved the way she knuckled down off a slow speed to wear them down. Like her up to 1200m and is the only other winning chance IMO.

8 Bee Quick (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Dion Luciani trained mare that is racing in really good form at the moment. This mare hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing at this track/distance when off the speed and tried hard when a close up third to a very progressive galloper in Long Beach. Think that form reads okay for this.

4 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Trade Fair mare for Alan Matthews that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since September 7 at Belmont when off the speed and tried hard when a close up fourth to Zero Demerits. She is a mare who can pull out a decent run fresh so despite no public trials leading in, I’d be watching the market with her.

Straight to 1600m looks ideal for 2 Dark Choice (Bet Now: $4.40). This Team Williams mare resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago and really liked the way she finished her race off over an unsuitable trip behind Regal Counsel. Lone second up run came in the 1000 Guineas and she was very good here at this trip. Hard to beat for sure against these.

4 Mr Kunafa (Bet Now: $11.00) has done little wrong in his short career to date for Bruce Watkins. He ran over this track/distance at the midweeks back on Feb 19 where he got the A1 run in transit just off the pace and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when second to Deputano. Has that run under the belt at 1600m and senior jock goes back on.

3 Tollman (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a very progressive gelding for Paul Roberts that should measure up here. Led throughout to win over 1400m here first up before going to Bunbury over 1675m and loved the way he finished his race off from the back to win impressively again. Back to 1600m a little knock but he’s flying this time in.

8 Cryptic Love (Bet Now: $2.70) is a quality mare for David Harrison that should prove hard to beat. Resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago and was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting. Loved the way she found the line from near last in the run, charging home to run second to Regal Counsel. Can sit nearer the speed from the good draw and up to 1400m, she looks really hard to hold out.

Back on dry ground, think 4 Danny George (Bet Now: $13.00) can improve. Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago on soft ground and while he was held up for a few strides, for the most part, he had his chance when fifth to Regal Counsel. Interesting he comes up to 1400m but back on a firmer deck suits and if this is a sit/sprint, the turn of foot will come into play.

7 Festival Miss (Bet Now: $5.50) has been somewhat disappointing this time in for Team Williams. Had a three week freshen up and raced over 1400m here a fortnight ago when getting back in the run and finishing off strongly when fourth to Yeah Dardy. Little while between wins, but if she can reproduce what she did last start, she’s in the mix.

2 Kelvin (Bet Now: $5.50) is the one I’m watching closely. This Fred Kersley three year old resumed in the Lex Piper where he was very keen in the run behind the speed and didn’t have much left for the straight when fifth to Money Matters, beaten a length. He’ll take good improvement from that you would assume and big tick up to 1800m.

3 Talladega (Bet Now: $1.90) is hard to beat and hard to knock a horse who is yet to taste defeat, but gee he’s getting short enough at around even money. But what I like is that the stable are backing him up after winning over 1400m here last Saturday where he led throughout and was strong to the line in getting the job done. With the scratchings, this race is wide open.

9 Criminal Code (Bet Now: $10.00) is one for exotics. Not sure he has the class to beat these but up to 1800m third up should suit. Comes through the Money Matters race where he was tucked away nearer the inside but the sit/sprint set up wasn’t his go at all. If he can sit box seat from gate one, think he’ll run a positive race.

Have to be with 1 Tuscan Queen (Bet Now: $4.20) again. Looked very flat behind Superstorm in the Challenge first up before going to the 1000 Guineas two weeks ago and really, it was an absolute nightmare if you were on. Should have finished much closer and when clear, she was very good. She’ll eat up 2200m and with clear air, she wins.

4 Naughty By Nature (Bet Now: $3.40) also comes through the 1000 Guineas and I thought she was very good in defeat after sitting wide throughout yet still hit the line and was very good when third to Lonsdale Lady. Unknown at 2200m but off last start, she should be okay with it, and better luck in running will see her go close.

3 Pambella (Bet Now: $17.00) should be okay at 2200m. She ran in the 1000 Guineas where she was back near last in the run and keen but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off. If she can sit that little bit closer in the run and produce better racing manners, mainly harness her energy, I think she’s right in the mix.

13 Snippy Miss (Bet Now: $8.50) looks like she’s crying out for more ground and she gets it here. Her last three runs have come over 1100m and each time she has got back off the speed and finished her race off with real purpose. Strikes a winnable race here I feel and up to 1200m with weight relief, think she only runs well.

1 M’Lady (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Martin Allan trained mare that was a drifter in betting when resuming over 1100m here a fortnight ago when doing work to land on speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Sherpa Lass, an above average filly. That form reads okay for this and up to 1200m with the run under the belt, she should be stronger at the end.

12 On The Turps (Bet Now: $23.00) isn’t the most reliable horse going around but he can pull out a decent run. The resumption over 1100m here two weeks back was an eye catcher I thought. Got back in the run and worked home well through the field behind Sherpa Lass. Hasn’t won in over a year, but off the first up run, certainly including him in multiples.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Sherpa Lass

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Tuscan Queen

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 13 Snippy Miss

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 7, 8

Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 9

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 8, 10, 12, 13

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