14/12/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Villiers Stakes day

The Sydney Summer Carnival reaches its peak at Randwick this Saturday with a strong nine race card, headlined by the Villiers Stakes (1600m), with the winner getting a golden ticket into the Doncaster. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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8 Misteed (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) clearly for me. Team Snowden trains this mare, who had trialled up absolutely enormous prior to resuming over 1200m at Kembla three weeks ago where she was one of many who were out wide and just couldn’t get involved, finishing midfield behind Kylease. That form was franked last Saturday via Jen Rules and despite the form guide saying she’s 0/3 second up, looking at the runs, they have each been very good in strong races.

I want to be forgiving of 4 Seasons (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) and her first up run over 1000m at Kembla three weeks back. She was four and five for the entire trip and given it was her first run in a year, her condition gave out late. Only had one soft trial leading into that, so she was always going to be vulnerable fresh. Has the run under the belt, she should be better for that.

2 Insensata (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a handy mare for Jason Coyle that resumes. This mare had a pretty solid Autumn prep in some handy races, with her lone win coming at Eagle Farm in a Class 6 thanks to a 12/10 steer by Ron Stewart. Her best is good enough to run well here fresh and she’s had two trials leading, so for mine, I think she’s had a decent grounding.

I think all things being equal, 2 Zardoro (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is the best horse in the race. This bloke hasn’t raced since November 2 in a Rosehill Highway when finishing off strongly to run second to Plonka in a very good effort, but was found to be 5/5 lame, so has been given a break and he’s a proven Highway performer that will be strong at the end.

The gate makes it tricky for 1 Feel The Knight (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) but the Longmire sisters have this gelding flying. Impressive winner of a Highway over 1100m here two back before racing under the lights at Canterbury where he got back on a night where on speed was the spot to be and he found the line strongly against the pattern. He’ll be strong at the end, and potentially tags Zardoro.

5 Magnarock (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) is a Stephen Jones trained son of Magnus that comes to this Highway in winning form after winning over 900m at Muswellbrook when getting the suck run in behind the speed before getting splits late and under a heavy ride from Greg Ryan, he surged hard late to get the win. If he can get a suck run just off the speed with cover, he’ll be dangerous.

Have to stick with 3 High Bridge (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). Only had the one trial leading into his resumption in the ATC Cup two weeks ago when back near last on the fence and Jay Ford stayed there to save ground and loved the way he picked up late when a close up fifth to stablemate Alward. Stack of upside, eats up 2400m and he’ll do me each way here.

2 Emperor’s Way (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a query at 2400m, but he’s teasing, like he always does, to threaten and win. Thought he was solid in the Rosehill Cup behind Tally before having a four week break and racing in the ATC Cup when back off the speed and finished off okay late in the piece behind Alward. Fitter now…could I back him to win? No, but one for multiples.

Different form should always be looked at and I think 6 Capital Gain (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is worth a look here at odds. Looked in need of the run fresh behind The Candy Man prior to stepping up to 2000m two weeks ago when back in the run and finishing off pretty well late in the piece behind A Man To Match. He can be hit and miss, but off his last run, with upside to come, he’s a knockout chance.

Think it’ll take a good one to beat 1 Encountabull (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). Looks a smart colt for John Sargent who comes here off the back of a debut in the Inglis Banner on Cox Plate Day where he should have won but bombed the start, back near last, forced wide on the turn and was outstanding late when a close up fourth. Interesting to note that in the week leading in, J Mac said that was his best ride on Cox Plate Day. A 2YO at start one. Good lead up that, he remained on in the trial and the colt looked great there in winning. Bad luck the only thing beating him IMO.

10 Wild Ruler (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a Team Snowden trained colt having start and easy to see why he’s been popular in early betting. His recent trial win at Gosford was very good, leading throughout and doing it quite nicely, but he did shy out at the winning post, like the majority of horses do at that track. Gate one is such a huge advantage.

15 September Run (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller trained filly that is on debut. This girl has had just the one trial in readiness for start one, coming at Warwick Farm when leading all the way and while the time wasn’t the quickest of the morning, the tick for her is that she was pushed out and responded nicely. Off that trial, I think she needs to improve a touch, but she’s bred to be a good one.

The market will be the guide to 11 Superium (Bet Now: $3.50). if he remains solid in betting the last 10-15 minutes before jump time, that’s enough for me. I think ability wise, he’s got these covered. Was going down the Golden Rose path in the Spring but it was all just too much too soon for him. Given a break, liked the way he found the line in a recent trial and a fast run 1100m looks perfect.

15 Edison… (Bet Now: $10.00) not sure what to make of him. On form, he’s right up to winning this after his efforts during the Spring. But his trial leading into this prep was just fair and was beaten as an odds on pop at Gosford, albeit not sure he was 100% happy on the tight track. Has the run under the belt, on the bigger track, he appeals…but I wouldn’t be taking anything short.

5 Nicco Lad (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Nicconi gelding for the Snowden camp that resumes, having not raced since May 25 over 1500m here when down the track in a 3&4YO race won by some nag called Kolding, who has claims to being the best horse in Australia as it stands. Nicco Lad is a bit of a non winner, but his trial was good and was scratched last week for this.

Going with 8 Signore Fox (Bet Now: $2.60) for Team Snowden. He’s flying this guy. Outstanding first up winner at Randwick before being freshened up and racing in the Recognition at Doomben three weeks ago here when back off the pace and loomed to win the race but couldn’t quite get there when a close up fifth to Tambo’s Mate. Should be better for that run and back to a bigger track, he’s really hard to beat.

5 Multaja (Bet Now: $3.90) is back to 1200m but she’s racing as if she will suit it. Several weeks between runs for James Cummings since contesting the Hot Danish over 1400m at Rosehill where she was somewhat held up at a crucial stage but eventually got clear and finished off strongly to run fourth to Reelem In Ruby. Fast run 1200m looks ideal for her and tick over trial at Hawkesbury was solid enough.

I think up to 1200m will really suit 2 Bon Amis (Bet Now: $9.50) for Jason Deamer. On face value, his run in the Starlight was disappointing, but he had 59kg, was doing work in the run and keep in mind he was trained to win the Hunter first up over 1300m so back to 1100m was never a good set up. Like him back up in trip and third up, should be hard fit.

1 Invincible Gem (Bet Now: $16.00) could be back on track. Total forgive first up in the Hunter behind Savatiano before going to the Festival Stakes when part of a solid speed battle and was the lone survivor of it when fourth to Ranier in a gutsy effort. Her best is clearly good enough to beat these, and that last run indicates a win is near IMO.

7 Live And Free… (Bet Now: $9.50) I’ve only just gotten over the Festival Stakes and how he didn’t win. It was a 12/10 ride by Avdulla. Took advantage of the gate and settled near the speed, got the inside split, dashed, looked home…but bloody Ranier dug in and got the stride in to win. Strong Randwick mile looks perfect for this horse and is a leading chance.

4 Sambro (Bet Now: $21.00) looks the one at silly odds here. Chris Waller trains this talented gelding, who resumed in the Festival where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out. Just raced a touch fresh and had nothing left for the straight. Has gate one so J Mac will do no work with him and up to the mile on the big track suits.

11 Matowi… (Bet Now: $7.00) I’ll keep buttering up with him. Convinced he’s going well. No luck first up behind Sausedge before stepping up to 1500m two weeks ago and held up at times before getting clear, working home but last 75m, he just seemed to run out of puff. Like him at the mile here and if he gets a soft run off the pace, he’ll be strong at the end I’m sure.

3 Turnberry (Bet Now: $4.60) isn’t far off a win for Kris Lees and it could well come here. Ran over the mile at Kembla three weeks ago when near the speed and doing work but showed pretty good ticker late and looked the winner, but Aqua D’Ivina got the split nearer the inside and nabbed her near the peg. If he can keep at that level, he’ll go close to winning.

13 Our Winnie (Bet Now: $21.00) is flying for Greg McFarlane. She’s just bursting for a drop of rain, but even on dry ground, she’s hard to beat. Ran in the Orcein race from two weeks ago over 1500m at Rosehill when back near last in the run and finishing off hard late, producing the best late splits of the race. Randwick mile, fitter…all points to her running well. Just wants give in the track.

With the scratchings, the race just looks to set up perfect for 17 Petronius (Bet Now: $4.80). I’ve got something small on him for the Magic Millions Guineas but in warranting a trip North, he has to be winning this. He resumed at Warwick Farm and ran second to Embracer in an excellent run given he was wide, doing work, and really, 200m out he looked like he would drop out, but he found and closed off to run second. Draws wide, but should get over comfortably and prove very hard to beat.

2 Phaistos (Bet Now: $4.20) is worthy of another chance. Plenty, including myself, were keen on him when he resumed on Cup Day but he just didn’t have the turn of foot to finish it off and win but wasn’t beaten far by Bravo Tango in what was a pretty solid resumption. You’d like to think he’ll take improvement off that run and he is one of the hardest to beat off the back of a good trial.

I think there is a win in store for 15 Zavance (Bet Now: $20.00) this prep. Not sure it’s here, but I’ll be keeping tabs on her. Resumed over 1400m at Rosehill a fortnight ago and worked home well from last to finish a few lengths off stablemate Jen Rules. Reckon she wants further, and definitely wants a drop of rain, but convinced she’s going well.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Encountabull

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 8 Misteed

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Invincible Gem

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4, 7, 9, 14

Leg Three: 3, 6, 11, 13

Leg Four: 2, 9, 10, 15, 17

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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