Flemington is where Melbourne racing takes place this Saturday, and it will be the first of a few twilight meetings coming up. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (15:00) #lovethehorse Hcp 1100m
I’ll go with 4 Jabali Ridge (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) for the Price/Kent team. This colt is a son of Blue Diamond winner Jabali that is on debut. Trialled last Tuesday at Caulfield over 650m where he sat on speed under Olly and looked to move very well, winning the jumpout with plenty in hand. Draws the right part of the track and keen to see how he goes.
2 Conceited (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is likeable here. On debut for James Cummings, this son of Brazen Beau has had several trials/jumpouts in readiness for start one, the latest seeing him with the Blinkers on and it appeared to do the trick as he looked pretty sharp in going through his gears. Trained on the track, Lane on, he’s hard to beat.
8 The Pres (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is an All American colt for the Busuttin/Young stable that is on debut. He had a Cranbourne jumpout a couple of weeks ago where he was back near last before saving ground nearer the inside and moved through nicely, going on to win the jumpout impressively. Interesting to see how he measures up here.
Race 2. (15:40) Off The Track Program (84) 1100m
Want to give 3 Bam’s On Fire (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS) another chance for the in form Maher/Eustace team. This mare was heavily backed when resuming over 1100m at Ballarat three weeks ago and I think if she runs straight, she wins. Just threw it away when wanting to lay in under pressure when a close up third to Titan Blinders, who was specked in betting. If she brings her best racing manners, I think she wins.
Olly does get on very well with 2 Causeway Girl (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) and he is back on the mare for this. Resumed two weeks ago at the Valley when getting a good run just off the speed and loomed to win but her condition gave out late. Draws wide, so she gets clear air from the outset, and can see her stalking and finishing hard.
6 Atlantica (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a Henry Dwyer trained mare that had been trialling well leading into her resumption at Warrnambool where she was wide throughout with 61kg yet despite that hard run, she kept finding and was really good in defeat when a close up fifth to Damascus Moment. Tumbles in weight and draws the right part of the track.
Race 3. (16:20) Christmas Giving Tree (70) 1720m
3 Living The Dream (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction for Mitch Freedman. Admittedly, he got the pace on in front to suit last start over the mile at the Valley but he still had to take advantage of it, and he did, spanking his rivals in a visually impressive win. Off that, 1800m should be fine for him and stable is flying at the moment.
11 Westbrook Park (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) has the right form around him and he’s looking like he will eat up 1700m here. Had form around Russian Camelot, Banquo and co before winning the maiden at Cranbourne. Then raced over the mile two weeks ago at Nolen where it was a race to get to the home turn first it seemed, and Nolen just sat back and watched it all unfold before getting splits and dashing clear. He can go on with it.
Back up to the 1700m looks a good set up for 10 Imperial Dawn (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS), who plugged somewhat two back over 1700m during Cup Week before racing over 1500m last time out at Sandown when near the speed from a wide gate and tried hard but Kardashing led all the way and absolutely bolted in. Imperial Dawn is suited up to 1700m and in a tricky race, she’s worth something each way.
Race 4. (17:00) December Twilight (70) 1400m
Have to give 5 Somals (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) another chance. Impressive winner first up at the Valley prior to racing there again two weeks ago and I thought it was a pretty ordinary ride by Yendall. Tardy away yet pressed forward with venom to land on speed and the race just set up perfect for Rubisaki, who was far too good. From the gate, hope they ride her cold and she can launch late.
7 Briseur De Coeur (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Nicconi for Mitch Freedman that was well backed when racing over 1300m at Sandown in a maiden where he had a good run in transit just off the speed before Melham eased him wider on the turn and he surged the last 50-100m for an impressive win. Progressive, stable flying and 1400m at Flemington looks ideal.
12 Hi Stranger (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) interests me. Shane Fliedner trains this handy gelding, who was well backed when breaking the maiden status first up on her home track on Bendigo Cup Day. Then went to the 3&4YO Magic Millions race at Ballarat on a shifty track and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Hawker Hurricane. Back to Flemington I like and if this race sets up for swoopers, he’s in the mix at good odds.
Race 5. (17:40) Living Legends Trophy 1100m
7 Halvorsen (Bet Now: $3.50 SPECIAL ODDS) is a talented animal for Robbie Griffiths who had trialled up well prior to resuming down the Flemington straight several weeks ago where he would have been a good thing beaten had he not got clear but the run came for him, he dashed and he was too good. Was somewhat unwanted in betting there, so you’d like to think there is improvement to come.
5 Superhard (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a key chance. The John Sadler stable is flying at the moment and this guy can continue that theme. He resumed over 1200m at Ballarat and had no luck at all in the straight when wanting clear air to burst through. Got out, but it was all too late. Loves racing down the straight and gets the perfect set up with the wide gate.
Fascinating runner is 2 Illustrious Lad (Bet Now: $15.00), formerly with the Gelagotis team but is now under the care of Matty Williams. He has performed on the world stage with a couple of attempts in the Al Quoz at Meydan, both editions won by world class animals in Blue Point and Jungle Cat. Saves his best for straight track racing and this is a winnable race if he’s right.
Race 6. (18:15) Flemington Family Lawn (84) 1800m
I reckon back to 1800m is perfect for the Chris Waller trained 7 Sir Pippin (Bet Now: $10.00). I was keen on him two weeks ago over 2040m at the Valley where he looked to be bolting in behind them and on the turn, it looked no betting, but he couldn’t finish it off behind Secret Blaze. Back to 1800m on the bigger track, he should take some beating here.
13 Talenti (Bet Now: $2.80) is likely going to Hong Kong in the not too distant future which is a shame because he does look above average. Two runs in Australia have resulted in impressive wins at the Valley, the latest coming two weeks ago when making a searching run from the back and finishing best to win well. Harder here, but bigger track I think will suit and Olly takes over.
5 Etana (Bet Now: $15.00) is potentially back on track. She comes through the Secret Blaze race mentioned above where she was going well behind runners but got held up at a vital stage and by the time she got clear, the bird had flown. Like her back at Flemington on a bigger track and she’s getting towards peak fitness now. Knockout chance.
Race 7. (18:50) Summer On The Roof Garden (78) 2530m
7 Pour Vous (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Lindsey Smith trained stayer who has come back in really good order. Impressive winner two back on the Lakeside course at Sandown before going to the Hillside track where he chased hard with the big weight but couldn’t quite finish it off. Hard fit, gets weight relief, Yendall remains on, he’s likeable here.
Giving respect to 2 Defibrillate (Bet Now: $3.10) for Patrick Payne. Former Kiwi who won his first two starts in Australia prior to racing over 2600m at Ballarat three weeks ago where he got into a decent tussle with Creedence and didn’t turn it up, running a narrow second to the Hayes/Dabernig stayer. Big track, 2400m+, stable flying…looks a nice race.
I think 4 Yulong Rising (Bet Now: $8.00) is flying for the Hayes/Dabernig stable. Not much went his way two back at Morphettville, getting badly held up when wanting to build the revs. He then raced over the 2040m at the Valley and was left flat footed when the sprint went on, but picked up the bit and savaged the line to just miss out on the win. He should eat up 2500m and clearly looks a big track horse.
Race 8. (19:25) Say Hello To Summer (70) 1200m
6 King Of Hastings (Bet Now: $3.10) is worth a look here. Anthony Freedman trains this three year old, who ran in the 3&4YO Magic Millions at Ballarat where he was tardy away but Willow elected to save ground nearer the inside and was working into the race, but had too much ground to make up and battled late behind Hawker Hurricane. Better than that, so giving him another chance.
2 Titan Blinders (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Busuttin/Young trained galloper that was well specked at odds three weeks ago at Ballarat and the bets were landed as he landed on speed comfortably, gave a really good kick when asked and was too strong on the line, albeit Bam’s On Fire would have won had she run straight, but this guy did everything right and that form does read well.
Back to 1200m looks a big tick for 13 Lianne (Bet Now: $7.00) for the Ellerton/Zahra camp, who ran over 1400m at the midweeks at Sandown when given a 12/10 steer by Thornton and 200m out, she was the winner, but just didn’t see out the 1400m when not getting past Thousand Wishes. Like her back home and back in trip, and with the wide gate, she gets good cover and launches late.
Race 9. (20:00) The Lounge Trophy (84) 1400m
9 Bumper Blast (Bet Now: $4.20) with weight relief can be a sharp improver. He ran over the mile at Ballarat three weeks ago when lumping 60kg and he crept into the race on the turn when looking the winner but when Willow asked for the effort, the wheels were spinning and he couldn’t pick up. Gets really good weight relief this time around and is hard to beat.
5 Notio (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Team Hawkes trained gelding that had trialled up okay in Sydney prior to resuming three weeks ago at Ballarat where he was back off a somewhat moderate speed and was never really a winning factor behind Yulong January but closed off well to run third. That horse franked the form last Saturday, and on the home track, fitter, Notio appeals.
6 Over Exposure (Bet Now: $12.00) can improve out of sight. He was kept very safe in betting when resuming over 1400m at Ballarat and he looked a threat on the turn after getting a suck run nearer the inside but as soon as you had that thought, he went backwards and couldn’t come on at all. Better than that surely, so have to give him another chance.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Two Number 3 Bam’s On Fire
NEXT BEST: Race Race Seven Number 7 Pour Vous
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 7 Sir Pippin
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 13
Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7, 13
Leg Four: 5, 6, 9, 10, 11
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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