Racing returns to Moonee Valley this Saturday for a nine race meeting. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:20) Sheamus Mills Bloodstock Hcp 1200m
Leaning towards 1 Jabali Ridge (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) for the in form Price/Kent team. Market said he would need the run when resuming at Caulfield over 1100m two weeks ago but he produced a strong finale from the back, looming to win, but his condition just gave out late when a narrow fourth to Valaquenta. Fitter, up to 1200m, easily likeable.
The horse on the mind of most here will be 3 Crosshaven (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS). Was somewhat unwanted in betting when debuting at Geelong but gee he was trucking in the run and once Nolen pushed the button, it was race over and he spanked them, running good time and the ratings boys and girls are keen on him making the grade, so keen to see how he goes.
5 Marnix (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) up to 1200m I do like. James Cummings trained colt that resumed over 1100m at Rosehill on testing wet ground and was never really a factor behind Anders but did clock good splits between the 800-400m before knocking up late. The state switch should always be respected with these big stables, especially Godolphin.
Race 2. (12:55) Fiorente At Sun Stud Hcp 1600m
3 Librate (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) is a ripper for the Price/Kent stable that should be around the mark. Put together a couple of impressive wins before going to the Caulfield mile two weeks ago when given a lovely ride near the speed by Kah and tried hard, but no match late for stablemate Right You Are. Just has to hold her form to go close again.
The Maher/Eustace stable has 2 La Chevalee (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) going super. Impressive winner at Sandown two back before proving that was fluke at Flemington a few weeks ago when finishing best to get the job done again. Those two wins have come on testing ground so fitness won’t be an issue and chance of affected ground makes her hard to beat.
5 Smoke Bomb (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) can bounce back in a big way here. Not sure what happened at Caulfield last time. He was back near last in the run on a day where being on speed is his usual pattern, so forget he went around I suggest behind Right You Are. Has to go forward here surely and off prior form, he’ll run a much improved race.
Race 3. (13:35) Dynamic Print Group (bm78) 1600m
4 Kaplumpich (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is ready to win now. Ran over 1400m at Caulfield two weeks ago where he was given a lovely ride by Zahra and was there to win. Just found Heptagon too good on the day in a strong effort. That’s three 1400m runs under the belt now and should hold him in good stead for this 1600m assignment. Hard to beat.
2 Sikorsky (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is short enough but concede he’s going well. Not much went right for him at Caulfield last time out when wide early before Olly had to go forward, but unfortunately that was the day where there was a stiff breeze, so the extra work was two fold and he felt the pinch late when nabbed by All Too Huiying. The knock I have is that they went out slow in that race and came home slow, which is always a red alert, but form prior was too good to ignore.
7 Master Shuhood (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) might need one more but back on a firmer track, I’m including. One of many not suited by the tempo when resuming over 1500m at Rosehill a fortnight back. His finale was more than sound and for a horse best suited at 2000m+, it was a definite pass mark. Big tick up in trip…does he need one more though?
Race 4. (14:15) Sweeney Real Estate Agents Hcp 1200m
3 Ashlor (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) has a fab record at the Valley and I think he’ll run well against these. Ran over 1100m at Caulfield two weeks ago when near what looked a soft tempo set by the eventual winner Tavisan, and Ashlor couldn’t run him down, finishing fourth. Was coming back in trip that day, so back up to 1200m, on a track he loves, think he can go close.
2 Tavisan (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) is a Price/Kent trained sprinter that loves racing at the Valley and comes here off the back of a pretty sharp win over 1100m at Caulfield two weeks ago, being the lone horse for the day to lead into the breeze and win, so extra tick for him in that regard. Returning to the Valley, he’s hard to beat.
8 Spirit Of Aquada (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a little while between wins but isn’t far off. Ran over 1100m here down the straight three weeks ago where he sat back in the pack before being presented clear air and surged hard to just miss out on picking up Alfa Oro. Was scratched from an easier race for this, so interesting to see how he goes.
Race 5. (14:55) Ranvet Hcp 1000m
1 Sansom (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Phillip Stokes trained three year old that resumes. This son of Charm Spirit hasn’t raced since scoring a big win on Adelaide Cup Day at Morphettville when wide no cover on speed, and was there to be run down, but showed good ticker late and was too good. Recent Pakenham jumpout was good and gets a sweet run just off the speed from the gate.
If you knew 2 Ms Catherine (Bet Now: $2.00) was screwed down, it would be no betting. Just a little query on whether or not she has bigger fish to fry, but she was the find of the night racing season at the Valley, winning 2/2 including the Typhoon Tracy. Has great early toe so should lead, but she’ll cop pressure out wide so could be left vulnerable hence why she’s a tad too short for my liking. I’d want $3+ before betting.
Always have to respect Kris Lees when he comes to Melbourne and I dare say this will be somewhat of a trial for 3 Iconic Star (Bet Now: $8.00) to see how she handles the Valley because she’s all speed and she looks a perfect candidate for those 955m races. Stable finds Olly to steer and she looks ready to go off a sharp trial win.
Race 6. (15:35) Drummond Golf (bm78) 1200m
If 6 It’s Kind Of Magic (Bet Now: $4.00) brings her best, she wins. Simple as that. Had been jumping out like a star prior to the resumption at Caulfield, where she was awful, but clearly didn’t handle the bottomless track and Olly said so post race. Gets back to firmer footing and is proven at the Valley. She’s better than these and hopefully can produce that.
9 Felicia (Bet Now: $4.80) looks ready to win. Just found the 1200m on testing ground a bit much two back behind Barbie’s Dox before coming back to 1100m when leading into the breeze and fought on strongly when third to Broadwayandforth. She’s nearing a win I suspect and IMO she’s a short course horse, so the Valley 1200m suits.
1 Lankan Star (Bet Now: $14.00) is a talented filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team that was good against the Mares two back down the Flemington straight six when third to Jamaican Hurry before coming back to 1100m at Caulfield and she was nearer the inside, ahich was quicksand for the meeting, so want to be forgiving of her effort behind Broadwayandforth. Back up in trip, can bounce back for sure.
Race 7. (16:15) Keogh Homes T Harrison Cup 1600m
9 Biometric (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Hayes/Dabernig import that made his Australian debut over 1400m at Caulfield in the Heptagon race. Good sign that he was well supported to win given imports making their Australian debut are usually left for the keeper, but his run was very good without a great deal of luck. He’ll eat up 1600m here and is a leading chance.
Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 2 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $6.00). Resumed over 1400m at Flemington four weeks ago and really liked the way he found the line late in a blanket finish won by Iconoclasm. Traditionally, he’s been trained as a 2000m horse, but his best form has come at 1600m, so will be interesting to see how he goes here.
8 Sir Pippin (Bet Now: $21.00) might need one more, but certainly has the ability to fill a first four spot. Comes through the Heptagon race mentioned above at Caulfield where he was back in the run and didn’t really make up any ground, but that form does read very well and his second up record does appeal. Not the worst here.
Race 8. (16:50) Inglis July Sales Series Hcp 2040m
Provided there is no second up syndrome, 2 Django Freeman (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the pony to bet on. Long awaited Australian debut came at Flemington three weeks ago on a vert testing track and his effort was a huge pass mark, sticking on strongly to run third to impressive winner Reykjavik. Up in trip looks idea, fitter, more upside than most…just depends if he races flat after that testing first up run on wet ground.
4 So You Win (Bet Now: $14.00) is knocking on the door to win one and I think he gets his chance here. Plagued by wet tracks this prep but found firmer footing at Caulfield two weeks ago and liked the way he found the line nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be, behind Mahamedeis. He’s nearing a win I feel and this is a winnable race.
5 Double You Tee (Bet Now: $16.00) is working up to something positive I think. Patrick Payne trained galloper that is already a winner here at the track which is a tick for him. His two runs back from a break have come on really wet ground, the second run coming at Flemington behind Reykjavik. Getting onto firmer footing suits and did win third up last prep.
Race 9. (17:20) Ladbrokes Switch (bm84) 1200m
2 La Tigeresa (Bet Now: $6.00) looks a great bet here. Jason Warren trained mare that resumed in the Straight Six at Flemington and despite finishing three lengths off Great Again, she should have finished much closer. Got badly held up at a vital stage when bolting in a total forgive I think. Back to this level, she’s very likeable and am keen on her.
Team Yargi have 6 Jamaican Hurry (Bet Now: $8.00) flying this time in. Loved the way she let down to win down the Flemington straight two back before going to Caulfield where she got back and tracked up quite well, looming to beat Great Duchess, but that mare kicked on too well. Jamaican Hurry is going super and can go one better.
5 Call Me Royal (Bet Now: $16.00) has a very good first up record and the Waterhouse/Bott team will have her rock hard fit to run well. She will likely roll forward and make her own luck and if they are winning on speed at The Valley she is a good each way bet in the race at odds.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 La Tigeresa
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Kaplumpich
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 3 Ashlor
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 6, 8, 9
Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 9
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 8, 9
Leg Four: 2
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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