The Adelaide Autumn Carnival swings into action this Saturday at Morphettville where we see lead ups to the Derby and Oaks, as well as Goodwood and Robert Sangster hopefuls. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out four metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (13:06) Dequetteville Stakes 1050m
Tricky race for the babies. Leaning the way of 11 Holy Dancer (Bet Now: $7.50) for the Stokes team. Debuted four weeks back on the Parks track when showing good speed to lead the field up and gave a good kick but just found Biscara too good on the day. The break between runs should have done her the world of good and on the bigger track, perhaps with cover, she can get the job done.
2 Li’l Kontra (Bet Now: $6.00) is on the seven day back up for the Ryan Balfour stable after racing on the Parks track last Saturday where she was wide no cover throughout but despite that, I thought she had her chance to win when third to Hearty Lass. Potentially beaten by a good one, have to wait and see. But the form prior does read well for a race of this nature.
6 Rose Tiara (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Peter Hardacre trained filly who is five weeks between runs, having not raced since March 9 over 1000m on the Parks track when comfortably held into third spot behind Mayan, who has since run well in Melbourne to frank the form. Break between runs a little query with her, but looks to have been kept on ice for this and the debut win at the Bool was impressive.
Race 2. (13:41) Happy 25th Wedding Anniversary Lynne-Marie & Nick Handicap (82) 1050m
9 Gytrash (Bet Now: $2.80) is a talented Lope De Vega gelding for the Gordon Richards stable that resumes. The stable every season usually have a decent up and coming youngster and this bloke fits the criteria. Hasn’t raced since October 20 when running a close up third over 1200m here after sitting back off a slow tempo. Good fresh record and recent Morphettville jumpout was encouraging.
3 Rewarding Laughter (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Reward For Effort mare for Eric Musgrove resuming. This mare has had good success when coming to Adelaide, winning a couple of races in good style. Fresh record and recent Cranbourne trial tells me there’s intent to run well and despite carrying the weight, she has got a touch of class on her side when she’s right. Interesting to see what the market does and how she parades because she can get flighty.
5 Domination (Bet Now: $14.00) has really turned his career around since joining the Grant Young stable, formerly with Tony McEvoy. Thought he ran an enormous race in defeat last time out at Penola after copping pressure in front. Just got caught late. Back to 1050m with weight relief suits and think his best chance of winning will be if allowed to roll along at a good speed, giving them something to chase.
Race 3. (14:16) Holdfast Insurance Handicap (82) 1200m
10 Private Lounge (Bet Now: $5.00) is an Andrew Payne trained mare who can be really hard to trust and follow, especially this time in, but at her best, she’s better than these. Ran last Wednesday at Sandown where she sat back off a slow tempo and had no chance of winning given they walked, but she did a great job to get as close as she did. Has to be respected.
2 Arkham Knight (Bet Now: $10.00) is a handy son of Reaan for the John Macmillan stable resuming. Somewhat frustrating Spring/Summer prep for this galloper, who had showed potential previously as being one of the leading contenders for the Goodwood, but the form had tapered right off. Resumes in a winnable race if he’s right and looked very sharp in a Starthalbyn trial win a couple of weeks back.
5 Chapel City (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Gordon Richards trained gelding resuming. This bloke hasn’t raced since January 12 when beating one runner home in a field of five at Gawler (Metro) behind Table Of Wisdom. Has a really good first up record and did look pretty good in a jumpout here last week. Market will be the guide, but stable is having an okay run at the moment.
Race 4. (14:56) Ro's Golf Trip Handicap (90) 1600m
Think each way could be a decent option here via 6 Brown Ben (Bet Now: $10.00). Was on him each way when he resumed on the Parks track three weeks ago where he wasn’t suited by the slow tempo and couldn’t show the necessary dash when behind Amberdi, a talented mare in her own right. Fitter and up to the mile on the bigger track should help his cause. He’ll do me each way.
5 A Shin Rook (Bet Now: $3.30) at his best, has lengths on these…just not sure where he is at. Hasn’t raced since Adelaide Cup Day here when contesting the CS Hayes Memorial when a close up third to Mantastic in a bunched finish in a race which wasn’t exactly franked as a form reference in the Golden Mile at Bendigo. Still, a drop in grade/depth here and stable is on fire.
12 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $31.00) could be one to include in multiples. He’s been a ripper for John Hickmott for a while now and comes here in really good form. Strung together two sharp wins at Naracoorte before going to Penola where he was beaten narrowly by Pass The Glass. Proven city performer and down in the weights from the soft draw, definite place chance.
Race 5. (15:41) Port Adelaide Guineas 1800m
Really keen on the Tony McEvoy trained 2 Classic Weiwei (Bet Now: $8.00). 2/2 this time in, starting with an impressive maiden win first up at Balaklava before going to Gawler last Wednesday where the margin really flattered his rivals given he hit the front far too early and is just a big dumbo. No idea how to go on with it as of yet. With a bunny to chase, he’ll be much better off.
1 Tongsai Boss (Bet Now: $3.80) is a hard fit/in form three year old John Hyam who has won his past two. 12/10 steer from Jamie Kah helped him win two back at the Valley before racing over the mile here where he looked in trouble but once Toeroek switched the whip to the left hand, the horse found and got the verdict. Not sure about him at the trip, but only one way to find out.
3 Ice Ghost (Bet Now: $9.50) is racing really well this time in for Gordon Richards, but he can’t quite crack it for a win. He comes through the Tongsai Boss race from two weeks ago where he was laying all over the eventual winner and probably cost himself the win when beaten narrowly. I think the trip will be okay for him…not sure he has the class, but has to be respected all the same.
Race 6. (16:21) R N Irwin Stakes 1100m
If 8 I’ll Have A Bit (Bet Now: $7.00) is going to be a proper Sangster/Goodwood contender, she has to put this field and now Cool Passion is out, she gets a golden opportunity for a win and blacktype. Has contested the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket in both runs back from a spell and has been good each time without being disgraced. She’s the best horse in this race. Hoping she can show that.
6 Hard Empire (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Hard Spun gelding for the Jolly stable that resumes. This gelding had a busy Winter/Spring prep, but it was a successful one, with three wins on the board and his rating going up to just about assure himself a start in the Goodwood. Resumes here and looked very sharp in a jumpout here last week. Think he’s ready to go first up.
10 Mica Lil (Bet Now: $7.00) is a mare more than likely heading towards the Sangster who got conditions to suit first up in the Manihi, sitting back off a brutal speed and finishing off quite strongly to run third to Everyday Lady. Second up off a decent break, perhaps second up syndrome is on the cards for her, but if not, she’ll sit back off a good speed again and be strong at the end.
Race 7. (17:01) Schweppervescence Stakes 1800m
If she’s come through the last run in good order, I’m keen that 2 Mirette (Bet Now: $3.20) can get the job done. She was wide no cover in the Alexandra last time where she had every right to drop out but she kept finding and was only caught the last few strides. The two wins prior to start the prep were dominant and on breeding, especially on the mares side, the trip should be fine, and stable is flying.
11 Vanuatu (Bet Now: $11.00) is a good filly for Grahame Begg who should prove hard to beat. Loved the way she found the line first up behind subsequent Bendigo Guineas winner Mystery Love before going to Cranbourne where she did everything wrong but class got her home. Up to 1800m on the bigger track should help her cause and third up, she should have upside.
14 Amanikan (Bet Now: $19.00) clearly a threat for me. This daughter of Sebring produced an electric win from the break to win her maiden first up at Sandown. Was given nearly two months off before contesting the Autumn Classic at Caulfield when back and making ground late behind Global Exchange, who franked that form in the Alister Clark. Looks a clear SA Oaks type and will be very strong late. Closed off very well in a recent Cranbourne jumpout on and appears to be on track.
Race 8. (17:40) Redelva Stakes 1100m
You’d think only bad luck beats 7 Anjana (Bet Now: $2.45). She’s been really impressive in two runs back from a spell. Lovely steer from Olly got her the win first up down the Flemington straight before going to the Valley where she looked in a bit of trouble on the turn but once she got clear, it was a pretty painless watch. Just has to hold that form and I think she’ll be too good.
9 Humma Mumma (Bet Now: $5.50) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates for John McArdle but she’s rarely far away and does bust her gut each start, which is all you want from a horse. Hasn’t raced for five weeks since contesting the Fireball at Randwick where she ran a close up fourth to Prophet’s Thumb. She seems to be a really good horse when produced with fresh legs and think she can only run well.
It’s almost last chance territory when it comes to 8 Beauty (Bet Now: $17.00) and Tony McEvoy is going deep into the well for a positive sign of improvement by whacking the blinkers on. Thought she was given a sweet steer at Bendigo last time but didn’t fire at all and was very disappointing behind Tassie galloper Mandela Effect. Clearly up to these if she’s right. Just have to watch her at this stage, but $20+, she’s almost worth something small each way.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Anjana
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 9 Gytrash
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 6 Brown Ben
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 19
Leg Two: 1, 6, 8, 10
Leg Three: 2, 10, 11, 14, 16
Leg Four: 7
$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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