13/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Bel Esprit Stakes day

1 Hightail (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Written Tycoon for the Snowden camp who resumed in the Pago Pago on a bottomless Rosehill surface and struggled in the conditions behind stablemate Cosmic Force. Been kept on ice since that run, dodging the wet tracks in Sydney and finds a very winnable race here. The negative with him is the wide gate, but does have class.

4 Super Seth (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS) does look the obvious to beat but IMO, he’s well found at $1.85 for a horse who comes to town off a Ballarat maiden win. Visually, very sharp, and had more to give, but the overall time relative to the day was just fair and so far, three horses from that event have raced again and done nothing, so there’s knocks to watch rather than take $1.85/thereabouts but concede he might be above average. This will give us a good guide as to whether he steps up to better company or not.

9 Fiorente’s Girl (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) looks a nice upcoming filly for the Hayes/Dabernig stable who debuted over 1200m at Sandown when getting back from the wide gate and having to make a sustained run. Loomed to win but just petered on the run late when a close up third. Can sit closer in the run from the draw and though may want further, gets the inside gate.

I think 2 Renewal (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) might be the way to go but not with a great deal of confidence. Team Hawkes trains this gelding, who was given a peach steer from Avdulla to win first up at Randwick before going to Bendigo (Metro) when a mile off them in an on pace dominated race and was never likely but did make up good ground. The key to him is the start. If he jumps clean, horse to beat, clearly. If he continues the bad habit of being tardy away, then he’s in trouble.

Really interesting runner is 8 Mount Kilcoy (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) for Patrick Payne. Had a couple of runs for the stable after being sent from Darren Weir and didn’t really do a great deal. Been given a break, haven’t seen a recent jumpout for him, so I think market will be the guide but on his three year old form, he’s a borderline Stakes class animal, so really keen to see what he does here.

10 Call It A Day (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a Wez Hunter trained galloper on the quick back up after racing last Thursday night at Pakenham when attempting to lead all the way and he gave a good kick but couldn’t quite go on with it but kept on well when third to Zoutori and Montaser, both city class animals, so I think that form reads alright and he does get weight relief this time around.

Giving 5 Temple Of Bel (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) one more chance. On first look, I was really disappointed with her effort last time at Sandown but when those on speed are running a tick over 33 for their final 600m, those out the back just had no hope, including this girl, who was carrying 60kg. Gets really good weight relief this time around and the tempo should be more genuine.

7 Ocean Deep (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained mare who ran a couple of Wednesdays back at Sandown when on speed all the way and giving a really good kick but just got the pinch late and was grabbed on the peg by I Remember You. She’ll do no work from the inside gate, Meech gets the ride and she does have an okay record at Caulfield. Winning chance for sure.

Fascinating runner is 3 Clearly (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS), who makes her Australian debut for the Archie Alexander stable. This mare did her racing across Europe, mainly in Germany where she was far from disgraced in some high quality races. 1400m is short of her best, but a recent jumpout was encouraging and looked to move. Happy to just watch her, but including her in the quaddie and a win wouldn’t surprise at all.

He’s going about it the right way is 3 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) and happy to be with him. Loved the way he knuckled down to win first up at Sandown before racing over 2000m at Mornington where he took a little while to get going but wound up strongly and got the bob in. 2400m third up, it does look a good set up and am confident he can measure up against these.

1 Bondeiger (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is over a month between runs since contesting the Adelaide Cup where I was really keen on him but he just didn’t run the two miles out strong enough when fourth to Surprise Baby. Fresh and back in trip, on paper, doesn’t read too great, but he did produce a good piece of work a couple of weeks back at Horsham, so he’s in good order to the eye.

5 O’Lonera (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) looks the value in the race. I reckon Cindy Alderson has got him going well. On the quick back up after racing over 2000m here last Saturday where he came off the bit when the sprint went on but stuck on well in defeat behind Our Libretto. Last time he was on the quick turnaround, which was early 2018, he did win impressively, so he can handle it.

Not the strongest race going around but always an intriguing one. The WaterBott stable won this race last year and they can repeat the dose in 2019 with 3 Transact (Bet Now: $8.00). Just went too keen two back over the mile at Canberra before stepping up to 2200m at Bendigo when on speed and fighting hard when a solid third to Secret Blaze. He should lead this field up for fun and if left alone, no doubt he will take some running down.

I think 1 Secret Blaze (Bet Now: $2.50) is the best horse in the race, by some distance. Just depends if he can run a strong 2400m. He ran over 2200m at Bendigo two weeks ago and probably didn’t run it out strongly, but class got him home. 2400m will be a different pain barrier for him, but he has class on his side. Just doesn’t want to get too far back in the run.

Long Shot: I think 10 Alaskan Honey (Bet Now: $18.00) can get the job done though. Tragedy beaten first up at Pakenham before racing there again when pipped on the peg. She then went to Sale where she was given a sweet steer from Thornton and surged hard late to grab the win on the peg. Confident she can measure up and trip will be no issue. Just depends on whether she has the class.

Gee this looks a perfect assignment for the Archie Alexander trained 4 Saccharo (Bet Now: $3.90). He’s been excellent in two runs back from a break. Resumed with a grinding third at Ballarat before going to the Bendigo Guieas where he got back in the run, peeled out and took a while to get going again but was launching late when third to the above average Mystery Love. May want a mile, but this does look his race.

12 Tarwin (Bet Now: $3.90) looks another heading down the SA Derby path and should be respected, especially given he’s trained by Mick Kent. Resumed at the Sandown midweeks where he was very unlucky not to win when beaten narrowly by Nasaayim. The 1440m should be perfect for him but being by Americain, he looks as if he wants 2000m+. Still, above average and a chance, and bear in mind has had a good jumpout at Cranbourne after the first up run.

2 Phoneme (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Choisir gelding for the Chris Waller stable that resumes. This three year old really turned his career around when switched to the Flemington stable, where he won a couple of races in really impressive fashion. Has a decent fresh record and though given just a quiet jumpout, he does have a Stakes class finale on him and can work in the run and still win.

I think you have to believe what you see when it comes to 15 Leiter (Bet Now: $3.00) and what he did on debut at Bendigo in November. He absolutely bolted in, winning by a space and smashing the clock without really being extended by Pat Moloney. Has been kept on ice and looked to trial brilliantly earlier in the week at Werribee. Think he’ll be beating these if he’s right fitness wise.

2 Yulong Yuheng (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Team Snowden trained colt who looked to trial up really well prior to making his Australian debut down the Flemington straight where he was on speed and looked to travel well, but I reckon condition just gave out late when fifth to Anjana. Think he’ll take good improvement from that and if that’s the case, he’ll take some beating.

7 Ollivander (Bet Now: $15.00) is a son of Charge Forward for the Ellerton/Zahra stable who hasn’t raced for over a month since racing over the five furlongs at the Valley where he was a tad unlucky but overall, I thought he had his chance when second to Algadon Miss. That form does read a tad suspect for this harder assignment, but gets good weight relief and perhaps produced on the fresh side could see him bounce back. Recent Flemington jumpout was encouraging.

Does look an ideal race for 3 Eduardo (Bet Now: $1.90) to bounce back into the winners list. Had a two run Group l Autumn assault, starting with an unbelievable effort here in the Oakleigh Plate behind Booker before going to the Newmarket where he clearly looked a tired horse after the gutbuster. Been given a freshen up and looked very sharp in a jumpout on Monday.

2 Bons Away (Bet Now: $5.00) is three weeks between runs for the Maher/Eustace after contesting the Hareeba at Mornington where he really had no chance of winning given where he was but worked home with real purpose late to run second to Streets Of Avalon. Good record on his home track and with a stack of speed engaged, he’ll be charging at them late.

1 Malibu Style (Bet Now: $27.00) is a Neville Parnham trained sprinter second up. He hasn’t raced since contesting the Abell at the Valley where he was far from disgraced behind Mystyko. I think Listed/Group lll is his level, so he finds a winnable race to win IMO and the trial win at Lark Hill prior was sharp and the clock agreed. Can sprint well on his day and is a good traveller.

10 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $3.50) finds a very winnable race. He comes through the Golden Mile at Bendigo where he had no luck at all in the straight when seemingly having plenty up the sleeve and should have finished much closer when fourth to Haripour. May want to be looking for 2000m now, but hard to ignore what he did last time and is a clear threat for mine.

4 Call Me Handsome (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Peter Gelagotis trained six year old who has had a little break between runs since contesting the Yarra Valley Cup where he was given every chance and tried hard when a narrow third to Self Sense, and that form was well and truly franked in the Chairmans at Randwick. Fresh legs and back to the Caulfield mile, he does appeal.

I reckon 9 Liapari (Bet Now: $51.00) is going well for Lisa Enright and a win wouldn’t totally shock. Ran over 1400m at Bendigo last time in an on pace dominated race and he had no hope given he was back near last in the run but I thought very late, he was okay to the line and through it. Getting out to a suitable trip now and gets good weight relief, especially with the claim. Has to go in the quaddie.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Eduardo

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 15 Leiter

LONG SHOT: Race Race Five Number 3 Transact

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 10, 12

Leg Two: 15

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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