The Brisbane Summer Racing Carnival continues this Saturday with the feature race being the $175,000 Group ll Lough Neagh Stakes (1350m) as well as the jockey state of origin series continuing. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (3) and the rail is out half a metre for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:52) : Canadian Club Handicap (75) 2200m:
Back Me: I’ll stick solid with Annaman (Best Odds: $3.30). I thought he was pretty good here last time out when third to Chillin With Dylan, beaten just over two lengths. He was well held, but his effort was still more than satisfactory, and certainly good enough to take care of these. He has been up for a while now, which is the worry, but so long as he continues to race well, I’ll be in his corner.
Big Danger: San Telmo (Best Odds: $3.30) comes to Brisbane and looks well placed here after sticking to the task very strongly a couple of weeks back over this distance at Warwick Farm when a close up second to Caiton. D Browne on from a good gate in a thin race..hard to beat.
Roughie: Tip Rat (Best Odds: $14.00) is on the quick back up from last Saturday over the 1800m at the Gold Coast where he tried hard but couldn’t quite reel in Scotty Be Gotti, who did run well at Doomben the start prior, so there is city form around this horse, and he is another who should appreciate the step up to 2200m. Outside winning chance.
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Race Two (13:30) : Mount Franklin Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: Should be a stack of speed here, so at value I’ll go with Falino (Best Odds: $21.00). He didn’t look entirely happy on the soft track when resuming in the Keith Noud (1200m) here a month back behind Steel Zip. He has a strong record at the trip, he’ll be strong late and will be much better on top of the ground if the rain stays away. Doesn’t want the track soft or worse.
Big Danger: Espiritu (Best Odds: $5.00) had the charmed run behind the tempo last time out and stuck to the task quite gamely when a close up second to Court Martial Miss, who was the best backed runner in the race, so the form isn’t too bad. Gets weight relief here, fitter and the slight drop back in trip should be ideal for this Stephen Lee trained mare.
Roughie: Heart Smart (Best Odds: $8.00) is a talented type that resumes for Steve O’Dea. This bloke was due to run during the Winter, but was spelled again and trialled a couple of weeks back at Deagon where he looked pretty good behind Miss Cover Girl. He handles all conditions and has a lethal first up record, albeit against easier company.
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Race Three (14:05) : Origin Jockey Series Heat 3 (1MW) 1350m:
Back Me: Glendara (Best Odds: $2.70) hasn’t raced in five weeks since running over the mile here when second to Chillin With Dylan, who will go around as a leading contender in the Christmas Cup at Randwick. No qualms for me with him dropping to 1350m and Tye Angland jumps on. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Total Authority (Best Odds: $3.60) is on the back up from last Saturday where she ran in the Just Now (1350m). She had to take off a bit early than what the rider would have liked and she pretty much gifted Slots the race, but she fought on very well. D Browne on, good draw and in ripping form.
Roughie: Walk To The Bar (Best Odds: $10.00) is a handy type that resumes for Natalie McCall. This gelding hasn’t raced since finishing midfield behind More Energy over 2000m here. He can run well when produced fresh and Jim Byrne has ridden this horse to two of its four career wins.
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Race Four (14:40) : H G Retail Phelan Ready Stakes 1050m:
Back Me: I’m going to give Star Of Pompeii (Best Odds: $10.00) another go here. He trialled like a star prior to debuting here where he copped serious pressure on speed and faded out to finish down the track behind Punishing. This colt is beautifully bred and the trial was too good to dismiss, so he gets a forgive for me and I’ll stick solid again.
Big Danger: Sundance (Best Odds: $6.00) sat on speed when debuting here a fortnight back and toughed it out very strongly to run a close up second to Emtevee Queen, nabbed in the last stride. Trial prior was very good and now he draws better, so he is a definite winning chance.
Roughie: Kubis (Best Odds: $8.00) debuted here a fortnight back and wasn’t far off Emtevee Queen, beaten 1.5L. Should take good improvement from that, he is in the right stable, and there looks to be good upside.
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Race Five (15:17) : The Groove Train Calaway Gal Stakes 1050m:
Back Me: Hard to tip against The Lass Kiss (Best Odds: $4.20), who was backed as if unbeatable when debuting here three weeks back, and despite missing the kick and getting held up in the straight, she just let down powerfully to win and win impressively. She looks one of the better youngsters in Brisbane and looks so well placed here.
Big Danger: Zelady’s Night Out (Best Odds: $2.60) is a well bred filly who bolted home when debuting over this track/distance a month back, and on times, she was better than The Last Kiss. She is a professional who will do everything right while The Last Kiss is a bit raw and green. That could be the difference between winning and losing.
Roughie: I’m prepared to forgive Spot The Diff (Best Odds: $14.00) and her failure a fortnight back. I think I’ll put the defeat down to the fact she had to make ground between runners and seemed hesitant. Looking at the replay, when she was clear of runners, her last 50m was pretty good. If she can sit on speed and out of trouble, she is a winning chance.
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Race Six (15:57) : Coca-Cola Handicap (2MW) 1200m:
Back Me: Taking a chance on Napayshini (Best Odds: $7.50). This gelding was touted as the Golden Slipper winner by his former trainer Grant Allard after his first start, and while he hasn’t reached those heights, he performed well when transferred to the Danny Williams yard. Now under the care of Stephen Lee, and he was due to run last Saturday, but was scratched. Interesting to note he was supported in the market prior to being scratched.
Big Danger: Belanoro (Best Odds: $26.00) ran over 1350m here last start and stuck on alright in a pretty good race when fourth to Saluter. Back to 1200m should suit this mare perfectly, stable is in form and this is a pretty thin race.
Roughie: The clear class runner engaged here is Typhoon Red (Best Odds: $26.00). He performed mainly at Stakes level during the Winter Carnival, with his best effort being a seventh in the BRC Sprint (1350m) to Charlie Boy. No trials, but he runs well fresh and class will carry him a long way.
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Race Seven (16:37) : Star Liquor Gold Edition Plate 1200m:
Back Me: Secret Saga (Best Odds: $4.40) was huge in winning the Mode Plate at this track/distance a couple of weeks ago, missing the start before being hustled forward to lead and really, she had no right to win, and though she was helped by the track bias, it was a massive win. If she jumps cleanly, she’ll lead and take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Given her racing pattern, Madotti (Best Odds: $8.50) will receive more bad luck than good luck, and she copped some bad luck behind Secret Saga, getting well back and wide before really savaging the line the last 150m to run a close up third. If she can somehow sit closer, she’ll go very close to knocking off Secret Saga in what looks a quality race.
Roughie: Pepperano (Best Odds: $21.00) is a talented filly who resumes for Liam Birchley. Didn’t really fire a shot during the Winter Carnival, but she was taking on the best of the best. Wasn’t asked to do much in a recent Deagon trial, she runs well fresh and did bolt up when produced fresh last prep.
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Race Eight (17:17) : Jones Retail Lough Neagh Stakes 1350m:
Back Me: I’m going to give Miss Cover Girl (Best Odds: $12.00) another chance here. The track was just too hard for her I thought last start in the George Moore, along with the fact she did a stack of work near the speed and eventually tired out. The forecast is for rain, and if there is any cushion in the track, she’ll take some beating, because the trial prior was outstanding.
Big Danger: Steel Zip (Best Odds: $7.00) is a greybeard who is racing in career best form. He produced a powerful finishing burst to win the Keith Noud (1200m) a month back, aided by a peach from Jeff Lloyd. Recent Deagon trial was strong and he will be better at 1350m compared to 1200m.
Roughie: I’m going to keep Temple Of Boom (Best Odds: $11.00) very safe here. He wasn’t suited by the bias and tempo when resuming in the George Moore behind stablemate Didntcostalot, but the big key is getting Tegan Harrison on board and she rides the horse better than anyone.
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Race Nine (18:00) : Origin Jockey Series Heat 4 (85) 1600m:
Back Me: Feltre (Best Odds: $7.50) was a real eye catcher in the George Moore (1200m), making up solid ground against the bias when fifth to Didntcostalot, beaten seven lengths, but the run was excellent. Should be at peak fitness now and loves give in the track, so the weather forecast will determine how strong his winning claims are.
Big Danger: Bentles (Best Odds: $5.00) is too good for a thin race when resuming at Ipswich, then didn’t have the best amount of luck when finishing sixth to Sea Red at this track/distance, beaten just under five lengths. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise will prove hard to beat, especially if he can lead.
Roughie: Glorious Red (Best Odds: $12.00) got the confidence boosting win last time out at Ipswich where she slogged it out best to get the job done, and though she didn’t appear to handle the heavy track, the win was strong. Looks well placed here in a tricky race and I’ll be happy to back her each-way all day.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 3 Feltre
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Glendara
VALUE: Race Nine Number 12 Glorious Red
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7, 12
Leg Two: 1, 7, 8, 9, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12
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