Caulfield racecourse will host the first of it’s three meeting carnival on Saturday in which the feature race being the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas for three year old colts. The ten race meeting will also feature two other Group 1’s which are the Caulfield Stakes and Toorak Handicap and two Group 2’s those being the Herbert Power Stakes and Schillaci Stakes.
The current track condition at Caulfield is a Dead 4 and despite there being forecast for showers leading up to race day i expect it to be a dead track on Saturday.
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Race One: Inglis Debutant Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Stingray won a relatively quick trial on a heavy track beating a few of the runners in this race. She will have to overcome a wide barrier but the early toe she has shown should allow her to go to the front and dictate.
Don’t Back Me: All two year olds are having their first start and all form is unknown hence why there is no do not back me in this race.
Big Danger: Piacenza is a $200k daughter of Denman who won a trial by a good margin last start. Denman showed he will be throwing a lot of two year old winners and with the two trials under her belt i think she will be firing on Saturday.
Roughie: Hawking is a well bred $200k Street Cry colt who has had just the one trial over 800m. Glen Boss rode him in that trial and had decided to stick with him. He will be better over the 1000m but may only just be warming up. At $13 he is one to watch.
$500 Stingray Free Bet
Race Two: Thoroughbred Club Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The Huntress i thought didn’t have much luck at Moonee Valley last start in which she should have finished closer. That form has been franked since and she goes into the race having won well at Caulfield before. She is a promising filly and from the barrier she will be very hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Anatina won on Saturday at Flemington down the straight over 1000m although im not sure if she can replicate that over the 1200m here seeings she was well beaten at her only start over the distance.
Big Danger: Missy Longstocking’s wasn’t suited first up over the 1000m last start at Eagle Farm although her class prevailed and she won quite easily. Second up over 1200m will see her at her best and i think she will be very hard to beat on Saturday.
Roughie: Montsegur has contested some very good races in which she probably hasn’t had the best of luck in she finds a winnable race on Saturday and from barrier 6 she should get every chance. This will be D day for her.
$500 The Huntress Free Bet
Race Three: Catanach’s Blue Sapphire 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Miracles Of Life did a lot of work last start when racing wide and she still came on well around the bend in which the leader had already gotten a winning break. She draws barrier 1 on Saturday and this will give her all the favours and she will be racing under very similar conditions as she did when winning the Blue Diamond Stakes so i think the $7.50 on offer is very good value.
Don’t Back Me: Lion Of Belfort won impressively last start although that was a Friday night Moonee Valley race and he will find himself against some very good group class gallopers so at $5 i will be betting around him.
Big Danger: Safeguard suffered his first career loss last start in the Danehill Stakes and for not really handling the straight track he was very good in running fourth. He races better around the turn and he won his only try at the track and he will be very hard to beat at $5 in betting.
Roughie: Diamond Oasis hit the line well last start behind Barbed who was unlucky in the Roman Consul Stakes when running second. The Sydney form has shown it will be very competitive in Melbourne over the Spring and thus at $12 you have to include Diamond Oasis on Saturday.
$500 Miracles Of Life Free Bet
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Race Four: Schweppes Schillaci Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Kuroshio pinged out of the gates at Moonee Valley last start and went to the lead before being pressured but she showed a lot of fight and was going away from them at the finish. She only goes up 1kg on that run and the field is perhaps easier on Saturday so i think she will make it back to back wins and i was surprised she was paying $2.60 which looks a good bet.
Don’t Back Me: Unpretentious will be returning to the track after almost a year off and will have to carry the 58.5kg. He has drawn barrier 1 and will go back in the run so over the 1000m i think he will need a lot of luck and speed to be in the finish and i can’t see that happening so i wouldn’t be touching the $4 on offer.
Big Danger: Snitzem was a bit disappointing last start at Moonee Valley although he did race wide during the run so taking that into account i am willing to give him another chance. He draws barrier 2 here so he will get an easy run throughout and he will go very close at decent odds of $8.50.
Roughie: Pago Rock has proving himself at weight for age conditions and i think he will have the speed to be competitive over the 1000m. He has the fitness edge and from barrier 3 he will have all the favours in the run. Currently a $12 chance which looks good each way value.
$500 Kuroshio Free Bet
Race Five: Sportingbet Series Final 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Our Miss Jones returned from a long break last start and i thought she put in a good run after starting slowly and finding traffic heading into the straight. She will be better for that run and on top of the ground she will be very hard to beat at $10 in betting.
Don’t Back Me: Shamal Wind was good in winning first up but she goes up 6kg here and she finds a tougher field. He second up record isn’t as good and she has only won once from five tries over the distance so i wouldn’t be backing her at $3.
Big Danger: Hazard was well backed last start but didn’t show much in the run which could have been due to the slow track. Glen Boss retains the ride here and im willing to forgive the first up run so if you put a line through it she will be hard to beat on Saturday.
Roughie: You’re So Good has had three runs in this preparation and she has been good without showing her best. She has all the favours on Saturday and this looks an easier task so i think she will be very competitive at double figure odds.
$500 Our Miss Jones Free Bet
Race Six: Cathay Pacific Caulfield Stks 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Atlantic Jewel suffered her first career loss last start in the Underwood Stakes but she definitely wasn’t disgraced getting beaten by It’s A Dundeel. She went to the front which isn’t her usual racing pattern and i think that cost her the race, i highly doubt she will do that again and she will be much better running down horses. She will return to the winners stall on Saturday and cement her Cox Plate favouritism. I think she might drift from the $1.50 so it might be worthwhile holding out betting on her.
Don’t Back Me: Foreteller doesn’t have the best record over the 2000m and he finds a very classy small field here. He will go back in the field and there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed so i won’t be backing him at $7.
Big Danger: Super Cool had absolutely no luck in the Turnbull Stakes last start which is why they will be backing him up on Saturday. He has drawn well in barrier 3 and will get an easy run in transit and his record over the distance and the track is very good. If Atlantic Jewel can’t stay then expect him to be winning.
Roughie: The two outsiders of the field can’t win so on that note there is no roughie for this race.
$500 Atlantic Jewel Free Bet
Race Seven: Bmw Weekend Hussler Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: British General couldn’t have done anymore on Saturday when he was run down in the final strides. He went to the lead and was pressured throughout before showing a lot of heart to stick on to only just miss in what was a fast paced race. There doesn’t look to be as much speed in this race and if he can get over without spending too much petrol he will be very hard to run down at good odds of $8.50.
Don’t Back Me: Richie’s Vibe hit the line well last start although the speed in the race set it up for the back markers and he got a good run through on the winners back. He will go back again and from an inside barrier he will need a lot of luck and there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed so it may be hard to run on so the $3.80 isn’t very good value.
Big Danger: Eximius carried big weights in Queensland in some good races over the winter and was very competitive. He is weighted well on Saturday and should be very hard to beat in this class of race.
Roughie: Bello will appreciate the drop in grade here, she will have to carry a big weight in the race although she is used to it. She will need some luck from the wide barrier but if McEvoy can get her in i think she will be right in the finish at double figure odds.
$500 British General Free Bet
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Race Eight: Sportingbet Herbert Power Stks 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Tanby was disappointing last start at Flemington when getting a good run then weakening late. Happy to forgive the one run and on the form before that he would be half the quote. His record at the distance is very good and the drop in weight will suit. I think they will ride him back on Saturday and i think he races a lot better doing so and at $13 he looks good value if he can regain his form here.
Don’t Back Me: Kesampour has had two starts at Caulfield those being his only starts in Australia and has only placed on one occasion in which he had every chance. He has had two tries at the distance overseas without placing so i will be happy to risk him at the odds of $3.75.
Big Danger: Sea Moon lost the Bart Cummings on Saturday in a protest but the run showed that he is continuing to get better each run. He hit the line well in that race and he tended to lay in a lot which cost him a few lengths. If he can put things together i think he will be winning on Saturday.
Roughie: Moudre run really well at his first two starts this preparation although he disappointing in the Bart Cummings, again i am happy to forgive the one run and with the drop in weight here i think the $15 on offer is very good value.
$500 Tanby Free Bet
Race Nine: David Jones Nbcf Toorak Hcp 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Speediness put in a huge run last start in the Rupert Clarke Stakes and his form over the mile is better than that of the 1400m. He went back from a wide barrier and they didn’t put much speed into the race so for him to make up the ground he did it was very good. He will go back again here and there looks to be more speed allowing him to sweep over the top of them and the $9 on offer looks very good value.
Don’t Back Me: Solzhenitsyn won this race last year and Rob Heathote has come out to say he is going better this year although he will have to carry 6kg extra this year and the field is perhaps better than he faced last year. $4.50 is way too short for him on Saturday so i will be betting around him.
Big Danger: Linton showed he had returned perhaps better than ever in the Rupert Clarke Stakes after winning the Stradbroke in the Winter. He is coming out of the form race heading into this race and he has drawn well so he wont have to do much work throughout and will be hitting the line hard late at $8.
Roughie: December Draw put in a very good run in the Rupert Clarke Stakes and he has shown that he will be competitive in the Spring in some good races. He hasn’t won in over two years although i think he will put in a big run on Saturday at $21.
$500 Speediness Free Bet
Race Ten: Beck Caulfield Guineas 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Prince Harada had no luck in the Golden Rose last start after being held up basically the whole way down the straight. I think the Sydney three year old form is better than Melbourne’s and he would have finished close to Zoustar with some luck and he i feel is the benchmark 3yo. $5.50 is on offer although if you shop around i think you may get better. he will go back from the barrier and with what i think to be a good tempo’d race he will be running on late.
Don’t Back Me: El Roca went to the front in the prelude and dictated the race before tiring late. I have my doubts he will get the mile and there looks to be more pressure in this race so at the odds i will be leaving him out.
Big Danger: Long John didn’t lose any admirers when being beaten last start at Caulfield by Eclair Big Bang. He went back to mid field and swooped around them late taking lengths off the winner. He is likely to start as favourite around the $3.80 mark and he looks hard to beat.
Roughie: Dissident is yet to win this preparation although he has been in the finish basically in all of them against the older horses last start. The barrier is a worry for his racing pattern although if he can slot in he will be on the speed and will make his own luck. A must include horse for your multiples or an each way bet at $10 in the market.
$500 Prince Harada Free Bet
Best Bet: Prince Harada
Next Best: Kuroshio
Best Roughie: Tanby
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