A handy nine event meeting has been assembled for Belmont on Saturday, where it is Farnley Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:03) Tabtouch W'speed Platinum Mdn 1000m
Looks a race in two to start the meeting. The one with the solid form is 1 At War (Bet Now: $2.00), who returns as a gelding for the Trevor Andrews team. He had three runs as a colt when last racing, and the form around him was pretty good despite not winning. Returns as a gelding and overall, the depth here isn’t as strong.
3 Petite La Femme (Bet Now: $8.00) has the early speed to give a bold sight. Chris Willis trained mare that showed good early toe at this track/distance last time out and gave a strong kick but just felt the pinch the last 75m. If she can come across from the wide gate without spending too many petrol tickets, could be dangerous.
5 Hariasa (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Bernie Miller trained mare that has promise and I think firmer ground is the thing going for her. That’s what she found on debut and was very good at Bunbury, then in two subsequent runs on wet ground, she failed. Liked the recent trial win and stable should be respected, so watch the market.
Race 2. (14:43) Free Entry To Belmont Park 3yo 1600m
2 Off Wego (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to be the one with the most upside and progression. Adam Durrant trained three year old that was 1500m back to 1400m when coming with a well timed run from the back to win impressively. Back up in trip I do like for him and despite this being a Saturday race, the depth isn’t overly strong.
1 Surveillance (Bet Now: $2.50) is starting to find some positive form and I think they may have unlocked something with this guy last start. They rode him cold when racing over 1400m here two weeks ago and he found the line quite strongly to run third. Off that, 1600m here should be fine and finds a very winnable race.
3 It’s A Lance (Bet Now: $8.00) is one at big odds that could surprise. Debuted in the 1400m race mentioned above that Surveillance contested, the race won by Chili Is Hot. The gelding was wide no cover for the trip and that early burn just told late. Draws much better this time around and an improved showing is on the cards.
Race 3. (15:19) Old Mate's Sports Bar (bm72+) 1600m
Not eight runners, so think it’s only a small each way play, but think this is a very winnable race for 3 Red Publisher (Bet Now: $9.50). Resumed over 1400m and just ran out of condition late fresh when down the track behind War God. Then came back to 1300m in the Idyllic Prince and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Free Trade. Severely back in depth and up to the mile, he’ll run a beauty, especially after the claim.
6 Leading Girl (Bet Now: $1.24) can win, but as a betting proposition, it is for thrill seekers only. Ran over this track/distance last Saturday and 300m out, she looked to be going like Winx, but as soon as pressure was applied, she didn’t fire a shot at all and was really disappointing in the straight. She can win, but for me, she’s purely a watch only.
It’s interesting that 1 Noir De Rue (Bet Now: $15.00) comes back to the mile after racing over 2200m last Saturday. He got complete control in front and looked to be going very well but just didn’t have the speed in the legs to put them away when third to Montelena. Likely leads this field up and will give a sight. Just not sure he has the speed in the legs.
Race 4. (15:59) Farnley Stakes 1400m
2 Massimo (Bet Now: $1.30) can win, obviously, and is the only other winning chance, but he’s too short at $1.60, and I dare say he’ll get to $2+ come Saturday. He is three weeks between runs since finishing best in a fast run mile to take out the Blue Spec. Interesting he comes back to 1400m, but have to like the way he’s going at the moment.
5 Snowchino (Bet Now: $10.00) is going okay for David Harrison but in the small field does map to get a soft run outside Great Shot. Comes through the Zero Demerits race from last Saturday where she paraded like she would improve for the run and that’s how it panned out, running fourth. Doubt she wins, but think she can fill a minor spot.
1 Great Shot (Bet Now: $10.00) isn’t well treated at the weights, but he does have class. In saying that, not sure what to make of his first up run in the Idyllic Prince when just off the speed and he didn’t really fire a shot in a disappointing effort behind Free Trade. Has a fab second up record and got credits in the bank to bounce back.
Race 5. (16:38) Amelia Park Plate 1000m
6 Just A Pinch (Bet Now: $10.00) has a good engine under the hood for the Casey team and does look a proper 1000m horse. Resumed over 1000m when ridden cold and I liked the way she found the line late when third to Madam Torio. Off that effort, think she has returned really well and from the gate can sit much closer in the run.
1 Brooklyn Pier (Bet Now: $3.30) has a touch of class/quality and that will carry him a long way here. Neville Parnham trained three year old that returns to racing as a gelding after a two run Autumn prep where he didn’t quite measure up as a Karrakatta horse. Has looked very good in the trials, but obviously watch the market and see what it does.
3 Our Danni (Bet Now: $12.00) is a daughter of All American that resumes for the Luke Fernie camp. This filly was similar to Brooklyn Pier in the sense that she was being aimed as a Karrakatta horse, but couldn’t quite measure up. Resumes without a trial but stable can get them ready for a resumption, so keen to see what the market does.
Race 6. (17:20) Ascend Sales Trophies (bm72+) 1200m
5 Nerodio (Bet Now: $2.15) is flying this time in and I think he can continue his winning ways. Has won his past two, winning at this track/distance two back before going back to 1000m here two weeks ago and gee he produced a sharp turn of foot from the back to win well. Now back up to 1200m, he’s really likeable against these.
1 Flower Of Scotland (Bet Now: $7.50) is a beauty and should always be respected in these kind of races. Had to lump 62kg here last time out but she had class on her side and that got her home in a driving go, and an impressive win too given she did do work in the run. Up to 1200m again is fine and gets in well after the claim.
2 Little Fish (Bet Now: $27.00) has now had nine career wins and eight of them have come at 1200m, so now he steps up to the trip for the first time this campaign, he commands respect here I feel. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1000m here when back and making up ground late without threatening. The claim helps and certainly has the quality to win.
Race 7. (17:55) Glenroy Chaff (rs1mw) 1300m
Don’t think you can go wrong backing 5 Super Teroitoa (Bet Now: $7.50) each way. He’s flying this time in for Colin Webster. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a really good kick, only going down narrowly to Ration Aly. Draws wide, but has the early toe to lead and give a sight.
Back to 1300m is interesting with 8 Ration Aly (Bet Now: $3.70), but she does look one of the more promising gallopers in this field. Nearly threw it away in the race mentioned above but kicked on strongly and was too good late in the run to the line. Think she’s short enough in betting, but concede she’s going super and is one of the hardest to beat.
12 Misty Lad (Bet Now: $23.00) is three weeks between runs for the David Harrison team since racing over 1200m here where I don’t think the rub of the green went his way and should have finished a bit closer when sixth to Point Taken. Senior jock takes over and from the gate can sit much closer in the run. Knockout chance.
Race 8. (18:30) Budget Car &truck Rental-bm66+ 1000m
They could go potentially silly in front, so looking for something to sit off it and be strong late, which I think 2 Long Beach (Bet Now: $3.60) will be. Very promising animal for Team Williams that hasn’t raced in two months since producing an electric turn of foot to get the job done over this track/distance. Banking on him holding that form and proving strong late here.
5 This’ll Testya (Bet Now: $1.95) is the boom sprinter and it was hard not to be impressed by the way she bolted up fresh at this track/distance two weeks ago, showing sustained speed from the front and giving her rivals a galloping lesson. Good test here against some likely types, but she has the right racing pattern to go on with it.
6 Wanna Be Good (Bet Now: $34.00) is a bludger in the sense that he doesn’t win out of turn, but he is one who will love a fast tempo in front. Lindsey Smith trained gelding that teased to break the run of outs last time in, but couldn’t quite go on with it. Resumes without a trial but has the Lindsey Smith polish so watch the market.
Race 9. (19:10) Crown Towers (rs1mw) 1600m
13 Street Fair (Bet Now: $7.00) on top in the get out. Was on him last Saturday when he raced over 2000m and I thought he was really good from the back when fifth to Sugar Cain. Has that 2000m run under the belt, so that should toughen him up for this assignment and senior jock on, worth an each way ticket in the last.
2 Big Shot Paddy (Bet Now: $6.00) should be suited up to the mile. Resumed over 1400m here two weeks ago and I thought he was more than a pass mark in defeat, albeit a blanket finish, behind Ration Aly. The depth here isn’t as strong IMO, he’s suited up to 1600m, fitter, with upside, there is plenty to like about him here.
10 Artie’s Jewels (Bet Now: $13.00) is going well for Karen Kersley. Ran over this track/distance last time out and was a little unlucky not to finish closer, but at the same time, thought she had her chance when fourth to the in form Moderator. Not the strongest race this so I think if she holds her form, she’s in the mix, despite looking like she wants further.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 3 Red Publisher
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Red Publisher
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 13 Street Fair
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg Four: 2, 6, 10, 13
$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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