12/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Scone, Scone Cup day

5 Mazita (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does look the one with the most upside/progression. This colt debuted at Muswellbrook over 1280m where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I loved the way he found the line late in the piece when third to Neddy, beaten a lip in a driving go. On the bigger track, fitter, and with Kia Ora in the ownership, you’d think they would love a flex in the opening race of the Carnival.

7 The Hanger Cat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and should be suited back up in trip. He was 1200m back to 1100m when racing here last time. He was wide no cover on speed throughout and was entitled to somewhat knock up but kept finding and only just got a stitch very late when second to Divine Sinner. With luck from the gate, he’ll be around the mark.

13 Two Aye (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has more upside than most and should appreciate a rise to 1300m. She was kept pretty safe in betting when debuting over 1000m at Wagga. She was off the bit and seemingly struggling in the run but she ran through the pain barrier and was pretty solid to the line without threatening when fourth. Off that, 1300m should be ideal and maps to get a sweet run in transit.

One of the betting pearls is 2YO’s against older horses in maiden races so with that, I am siding with 10 Perigean (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is on debut for Michael Freedman. He has been well educated for start one, having a Summer prep without a run. Spelled and has come back this time with two trials, the latest seeing him third over 1045m at Randwick and I thought moved very well. Good grounding for this and maps to get a sweet trip.

1 Azayaka (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat with better racing manners. She debuted over 1000m at Gosford where she was a touch keen in the run on speed and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second to Mount Warning. T Clark from Innes Jr is a big upgrade and you’d like to think he’ll get her to relax in front. If that’s the case, she’ll tale running down.

4 Afterlight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was scratched from Wednesday in preference for this. Market said she was a good thing when racing over 1100m at Gosford but unfortunately she got caught wide no cover and just couldn’t get involved, beating one runner home in a field of six. Maps to get a much better run in transit and with her best, she can certainly take this out.

Open race with several key chances. Landed the way with 5 Mistress (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for John O’Shea, who seemingly has a strong hand in the race. She can be hit and miss but off last run, she can take this out. That last run was over the mile at Gosford on Anzac Day and I thought she worked home with real purpose when second to surprise winner Street Candi. I do think getting to a big track and firmer footing are two big ticks and maps to get a sweet run in transit.

8 Tequila Nights (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Jack Bruce trains this three year old and makes the trip to NSW after a debut win at Beaudesert. I don’t think he beat much but I was impressed with the way he got better as the race went on and was very strong to and through the line in winning. Should use the inside gate to advantage and the rise to the mile is ideal.

11 Blue Jager (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in pretty good order for Matty Smith and is a sneaky knockout hope. Both runs back from a spell have come at Muswellbrook, Latest run came over 1500m where she got a fair way out of her ground but saved it by staying inside and found the line really well when second to Media Man. Not sure she wins, but more of a first four threat.

Happy to have something each way on 1 Chevron (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Kristen Buchanan trains this colt, who was a short priced favourite when resuming at Muswellbrook where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never really a threat but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off when fifth. Has the potential to settle much closer in the run and overall, his form does read well for a race like this.

14 Snippety Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has race experience/fitness on her side and the right racing pattern will give herself every chance. Her last run came at Wyong on March 25 where she found a bog track and struggled to pick her feet up late in the piece behind Townsend, running fourth. Freshened up, tick over trial at Rosehill was solid enough and gets Blinkers on, so there is real intent.

David Pfieffer has a good record in the race and he saddles up 11 Midnight Affair (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for her debut in this race. She has only had one soft trial to get ready for start one and while she was held, I thought she moved really well when beaten just over two lengths. Jason Collett rode in the trial and he sticks with her for this. Watch the market.

5 Selous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in pretty good order for James Cummings. He has finished runner up in both runs this time in, resuming behind Chief Conductor at Hawkesbury before going to Newcastle where he looked home but had no answers late for the finale produced by Union Army. Hard fit and back to 1100m, quiet steer, he’ll be launching late I am sure.

1 Contemporary (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of Selous that finds firm ground for the first time this prep so I think he is a big improver. He ran two weeks ago at Rosehill on a bottomless deck and struggled to pick his feet up in the conditions behind noted swimmer Cruel Summer. Maps to get a sweet run in transit and back on top of the ground, he’ll take beating.

4 Oakfield Triumph (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Capitalist for Kristen Buchanan that resumes. He had a busy prep in the Summer to start his career, which ended with a down the track effort during the Magic Millions Carnival at the Gold Coast behind Spiritualised. Has trialled up really well leading in and with luck from the gate, he’s good enough to be around the mark.

Happy to have a throw at the stumps in the shape of 3 Tim’s Principal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Jeremy Gask. This guy is rising ten years of age but he still maintains a healthy zest for racing, as seen by his effort at Newcastle just under two weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and made up solid headway without threatening behind a promising three year old, Union Army. Like him up to 1400m onto the bigger track and will be strong at the end.

12 Amicus Curiae (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Mack Griffith. He has placed at his past two runs, both at Eagle Farm. Two back he ran third over 1400m behind National Choice before going to the mile and tried his guts out but was no match late for the in form Kinetic. Is a winner at Scone and do think getting back to 1400m is a big tick. Leading contender.

6 Pepper’s Ghost (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and good upside. Warmed to the task nicely fresh over 1000m here before going to 1350m at Doomben where he got keen in the run and I reckon that took something away from his finale behind Sunfall. That run was April 12 so has been kept on ice with this race in mind so watch the market.

This race has opened up after scratchings. I’m going to have a throw at the stumps in the shape of 5 Bartholomeu Dias (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Annabel Neasham. His sweet spot is 1600m-1800m so the mile here fresh I do like, the form around him, if you break it down, reads well, and his two trials to get ready have been strong to the eye. Likely gets three/four wide cover and be strong at the end.

4 Luncies (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality stayer that resumes for Kris Lees. It’ll be interesting to see where they go with him this prep, whether there is intent to win this race given it’s a Big Dance Qualifier, or is this a prep for something like the Grafton Cup maybe? He’s a good stayer when right and showed good dash from behind the speed to win a recent Wyong trial. He has class and that will carry him a long way.

2 Berdibek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited on the bigger track for John O’Shea. He was unwanted in betting fresh in the Hawkesbury Cup but I thought ran a very credible race in defeat, closing off well from the back behind New Mandate, beaten three lengths. Good second up record and might want another run, but he has the quality, the upside and will be strong at the end.

2 Stylised (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me in the get out. James Cummings trains this three year old, who hasn’t raced since the South Pacific during the Randwick Carnival where he struggled on the bog track behind impressive winner Razeta. Freshened up and back on firmer footing, his recent trial was a lovely piece of work and he showed last prep he is Stakes class. He’s the one to beat.

11 Larrikin Rouge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a horse with good talent for Chris Anderson. He resumed over 1000m at the Sunny Coast where he didn’t quite get the rub of the green but when eventually clear, he warmed to the task nicely, beaten two lengths but clocked some of the better late splits of the meeting. Like him up in trip and drawn soft, think he’ll be dangerous.

5 Commandment (Bet Now:  $SP.00) might want one more but she is a mare that has talent. Formerly in the UK, she made her Australian debut at the midweeks at Warwick Farm and was pretty good in defeat over 1200m behind Look Only. Better for the run under the belt, I think she has the engine under the hood to measure up.

BEST BET: Race One Number 5 Mazita

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Stylised

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 3 Tim’s Principal

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 9

Leg Two: 3, 6, 11, 12, 13

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Four: 2, 5, 9, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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