12/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Newcastle, The Hunter day

A bumper ten race program has been set down for Newcastle on Saturday, headlined by The Hunter (1300m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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The Hunter 🏆: View the Field and Odds for The Hunter

Kris Lees would love to win this race for obvious reasons and I think 7 Bangetta (Bet Now: $6.00) can win it for him. This girl is on debut, winning her trial here when leading throughout and what I liked is that when Bullock asked for an effort, the response was instant. Happy to be in her corner.

1 Cylinder (Bet Now: $3.70) is on debut for James Cummings and I think has talent. Two trials to get ready for start one, placing in the first trial at Randwick when off speed and asked for an effort, which he responded. He then led throughout to win his next trial at Wyong, and moved well. Hard to beat I’d suggest.

11 Naked Eye (Bet Now: $51.00) is a Star Turn filly for Stephen Jones that is on debut. She’s only had one soft 900m trial to get ready, which came at Scone where she seemed to move well near the speed when second to Shine Your Light, who has run well in town after the trial, so this filly is in with a shout.

5 The Dramatist (Bet Now: $3.40) is a coming Highway winner for Rod Northam and it could well come here. He resumed two weeks ago in a Highway at Rosehill and was very good from the back behind Pokerjack, finishing second. He’s always looked a Highway horse and he gets his chance here.

It’s been a long time since 2 Jalmari (Bet Now: $8.50) has had a decent rider steering and here he gets Hugh Bowman. I couldn’t back him to win because he has burned too many holes in my pocket but I do think he can win a Highway, especially with a gun like Bowman aboard.

16 Unzaga (Bet Now: $13.00) has only won the one race but he’s a gelding with talent for Paul Messara. Both runs this time in have come over 1450m at Muswellbrook, each run coming on wet ground, where I think he’s a far better horse on firmer footing. Right down in the weights, he’s a knockout hope.

1 French Bonnet (Bet Now: $4.80) is unbeaten second up and is hard to beat back to Mares grade. Sat on a moderate speed at Rosehill two weeks ago and she tried hard but couldn’t match it with all the way winner Cotehele, but stuck on for third. 3/3 second up, likes Newcastle…all points to her running well.

4 Thalassophile (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Chris Waller trained mare that resumes. She hasn’t raced since August 13 at Caulfield when producing and end of prep run when down the track behind Barbie’s Fox. Just one soft trial to get ready for her return but 1400m fresh tells me she’s ready to go. Watch the market.

5 Mayrose (Bet Now: $13.00) is capable with her best. Ran in a Midway three weeks back at Randwick where she got back in the run and made up some headway without really threatening behind Liberty Sun. Gets good weight relief after the claim and she does have the talent to measure up.

6 Gin Martini (Bet Now: $7.50) has to rate highly as one of the hardest to beat. Can easily make a case to say she should have won at Rosehill two weeks ago. She was slaughtered by Hennessy and had she got clear air on the turn, no doubt the mare would have won. 2300m looks fine and stable is flying.

8 King Frankel (Bet Now: $2.80) looks an out and out stayer that will just keep on. He won over this trip at Warwick Farm last time, leading throughout and despite looking gone on a few occasions, he found under pressure to win. Lands near the front and will only run well I’d suggest.

7 Outlandos (Bet Now: $11.00) looks to be ticking along beautifully for a race like this. Far from disgraced two back in the St Leger behind Stockman before going to the Pale King race from a fortnight back where he was very good from the back behind the Team Hawkes galloper, who won again last Saturday. Back up in trip, he appeals big time.

I’ll go with the class, which clearly is with 1 Casino Mondial (Bet Now: $26.00). This is the first run this prep where he has been placed to win and not a throw at the stumps. Outclassed two back in the Big Dance Wild Card before going to the Four Pillars where he was back and wide, and never a factor. Back to a very winnable Midway, Gibbons aboard, he’ll take beating with luck from the draw.

3 Sebrenco (Bet Now: $4.40) is racing really well for Tracey Bartley and is hard to beat. Dominant win at Kembla two back before going to the Four Pillars where she was a little unlucky and should have finished a touch closer behind Oakfield Arrow. 1600m is the query but inside gate and a claim for Lloyd helps.

5 Ripped (Bet Now: $14.00) has good upside and is dangerous. This five year old resumed at the midweeks at Randwick-Kensington and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Pandano. The rise to the mile looks ideal and clearly has more upside than most.

4 Bonny Ezra (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to be flying for Chris Waller. This mare resumed three weeks ago at Randwick where she was given absolutely no chance with the ride but she rocketed late behind Diamil in an excellent return. If you can trust that return, which I think you can, she’s clearly the one to beat despite a likely firm deck, whereas she’s much better when getting give in the ground.

2 Yiyi (Bet Now: $11.00) looks on track. Was heading down The Metropolitan path but couldn’t quite measure up in the lead ups so was freshened up. He went to Randwick behind Diamil and I didn’t mind the way he stuck to the task behind the O’Shea import. Fitter and up in trip, he’s hard to beat.

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 5 Mirann (Bet Now: $31.00). Didn’t think he trialled too bad prior to resuming in the Diamil race mentioned above. 1600m was a tad sharp for him and he couldn’t dash when need be. Much better set up this time around and the firmer deck also helps his cause.

3 Saveadateforme (Bet Now: $2.90) is a very promising colt. John O’Shea trained three year old that has won his past two, winning the maiden at Kembla two back before being quite dynamic on Goulburn Cup Day over the mile, spanking them and running the clear fastest mile race across the three 1600m races for the meeting. Heading in the right direction and confident he wins again.

1 Basquiat (Bet Now: $9.50) is a hard horse to follow/trust with confidence but I think he has the talent under the hood to give this a shake. Did a good job in horrendous conditions two back behind Opal Ridge before contesting the Callander-Presnell when back and just fair late behind Golden Mile. He can win…backing him with confidene to do it is another matter.

2 Robusto (Bet Now: $4.60) is a three year old with good talent for Chris Waller. He was big odds at Randwick on Cup Day but nobody told the horse that as he unleashed a strong finale from the back to win and win impressively. He’s racing like he will eat up the mile, he’s got the Waller polish and the overall depth isn’t strong.

I think the each way bet here is 4 Gem Song (Bet Now: $15.00). Been a ripper for Kris Lees for a number of seasons and the stable did have a stack nominated for the race, so the fact they have a sole rep in this guy, to me, says intent. Far from disgraced in the Sydney Stakes in a race not run to suit. Home track advantage and with Bowman aboard, ideal gate, I don’t think you can go wrong backing him each way.

6 Vilana (Bet Now: $5.00) has the potential to blow these away. Resumed with a bang when taking out the Silver Eagle before going to the Golden Eagle where he drew the widest barrier and his fate was sealed before the gates opened. Much better set up this time around and maps ideally. Hard to beat.

3 Eleven Eleven (Bet Now: $9.00) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. Greg Hickman trained gelding that resumed in the Manikato at The Valley where the wet track brought him undone but he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Bella Nipotina. Fitter, firmer deck and up to 1300m, he appeals big time.

1 Waihaha Falls (Bet Now: $2.80) is a horse with really good talent for John O’Shea. He resumed in the Sydney Stakes and should have won. He wanted clear air in the straight and it just didn’t eventuate for him when a fast finishing fourth to Rocketing By. Saves his best for Randwick, but the return was too good to ignore.

Looking at this race with Waihaha Falls out but if he runs here, he’ll go on top. 12 Loch Eagle (Bet Now: $16.00) can easily bounce back here. He produced an electric finale to win fresh at the midweeks at Canterbury before going to the Silver Eagle where he was nearer the inside, which was the no go zone, and he failed to finish the race off. Back on the home deck and back miles in grade/depth, he appeals.

4 Acquitted (Bet Now: $31.00) is the interesting runner. Kris Lees trains this import, who won like a star at Eagle Farm to end last prep on a high. He then resumed at Randwick three weeks ago and was just fair I thought behind Titanium Power, but he looks clearly set for this meeting and I think he has the talent to measure up.

6 One Aye (Bet Now: $11.00) is a ripping mare for the Joseph/Jones camp that drops miles in grade/depth. She ran in the Big Dance at Randwick on Cup Day and I thought she was very good from near last on the turn when far from disgraced behind Rustic Steel. Back to 78 grade, surely she appeals in a race like this.

You’d assume there is going to be a market push towards 11 Adjourn (Bet Now: $4.40) given he is an import making his Australian debut on the new home track and they’ve found J Mac to steer. His form, as a whole, isn’t great, but the recent runs have substance of form, enough to win a race like this. Market will tell you if this is a prep run or a kill.

13 Redwood Shadow (Bet Now: $6.50) has found winning form…can he go on with it? Few weeks between runs since winning at the midweeks at Warwick Farm, beating Sindacato…how strong is that? Not sure, but he’s a horse who can finish off his race strong and liked the tick over trial.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Saveadateforme

NEXT BEST: Race Six Numer 4 Bonny Ezra

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Gem Song

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 10, 11

Leg Three: 1, 4, 12, 18

Leg Four: 6, 11, 12, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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