12/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Night racing returns to the Valley this Friday with eight races set down. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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3 True Marvel (Bet Now: $3.70) for me in the opener. Matty Smith trained gelding that put together a couple of wins over 3000m, including a win here. Freshened up and ran over 1900m at Canterbury, a trip clearly short of his best, but his run had merit behind Zudin. Back up in trip, fitter, he’ll take beating.

4 Budd Fox (Bet Now: $7.50) has upside to come for Henry Dwyer and won’t mind this being a slog if it indeed becomes that. He was second up when racing in a Jericho Qualifier over 3300m at Gawler. He tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second. I don’t think he wants this to be a sit/sprint, so he’ll hope for a true staying test, which it should be.

10 Master Poet (Bet Now: $81.00) can add some value to multiples. This guy isn’t lacking fitness with his last two runs coming at 3000m+, the latest being the Mountaineer Cup over two miles at Wagga when making ground from off the speed without threatening when fourth. He looks a real one batter so 3800m no issue and Aaron Kuru is a strong rider.

I’m really surprised 7 Burning Power (Bet Now: $2.90) isn’t a dominant favourite here. I think she’s a near good thing. Spanked them to win her maiden two back at Echuca. Then went to Oaks Day at Flemington and you could make a case to say she should have placed when fourth to a star, Espiona. That is A1 form for this and she’s racing like she will eat up the mile. Really keen on her chances.

1 From Pantherland (Bet Now: $10.00) looks like he will be suited back to the mile. Impressive maiden win two back at Mornington. Then thrown in the deep end in the Carbine Club and I didn’t think he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Fangirl. Back in depth, he can bounce back.

4 Audrey Girl (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Busuttin/Young trained mare that comes back in trip and returns home after being outclassed in the Wakeful on Derby Day. Not sure 2000m is her go in life, at this stage anyway, so back to 1600m, expect some level of improvement here.

11 Rose Tycoon (Bet Now: $2.90) for me. Team McEvoy filly that was backed with confidence on debut at Murray Bridge and if you were on, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. She should have won but had no luck in the straight when a fast finishing second. Third horse was a strong winner on Cup Day at Morphettville so the form reads well and up to 1200m, she’ll take beating.

12 Seacole (Bet Now: $4.00) is a daughter of Not A Single Doubt resuming for the Maher/Eustace camp. This girl had two runs in the Summer to start her career, the best effort being at start two when third to subsequent Group ll winner Lightsaber. Her recent jumpouts have been encouraging and lands in a good spot from the draw.

13 Indy Rose Warrior (Bet Now: $8.50) creates interest. Former Kiwi that makes her Australian debut for the Busuttin/Young stable. Lone run came over 1000m at Te Rapa back in October last year when an eye catching fourth. Looked strong in a recent jumpout win so watch the market.

He’ll need luck with his racing pattern, but if he gets it, then 6 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $5.00) is the best on the card. With clear air, he goes close to winning here two back when second to Yulong Command. Thrown in the deep end on Stakes Day on Saturday and was far from disgraced. The run behind Yulong Command…that horse would be $1.50 here. I think he should be a clear favourite.

7 Crimosa (Bet Now: $4.20) looks prepped right up for a serious first up assault. Little/Lindsay trained gelding that resumes. Had a three run prep in the Winter to start his career, winning his first two before a down the track effort behind Twist Of Fury. Two jumpout wins suggest he’s ready to go.

Froggy on 9 Rambeau (Bet Now: $11.00) tells me it’ll be handle bars down from the outset. They rode with a sit first up over 1000m here and it didn’t work, finishing down the track behind Marine One. The 955m set up does look idea for him and his best is good enough to cause problems.

12 Sacred Lass (Bet Now: $4.40) is a hard mare to catch but she does look well set up here. Phillip Stokes trained mare that resumed over the mile at Ballarat and was a real eye catcher from the back when third to impressive winner Groovy Kinda Love. Fitter, up in trip, and with only 52kg on her back, she’ll take beating.

9 Rousseau (Bet Now: $7.50) deserves another chance. I was keen on his chances last time out on Bendigo Cup Day but as soon as pressure was applied, he found nothing and was very plain behind Saccharo. The first up run in a hot race at Ballarat was a beauty and off that, he’ll be a winning threat here.

2 Skyt (Bet Now: $17.00) is an interesting runner. Richard Laming trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since August 27 last year when spanking them at Mornington, beating a quality 3000m+ stayer in Wil John. Two jumpouts and a trial to get ready, watch the market with him.

2 Confrontational (Bet Now: $6.00) is flying this prep and he looks hard to beat. Should have gone close to winning first up at Sale. Then went to Geelong and was good behind Derive. Then went to Mornington where it was D-Day for him and he duly bolted up in impressive fashion. He can win again.

6 Galactic Fury (Bet Now: $3.50) can bounce back. Gave them a spanking two back at Benalla. Then went to the VOBIS Gold Star here on Manikato night and didn’t disgrace himself at all behind Wicklow Town. Back to a thin 70 race, if that hasn’t busted him, he’ll be hard to hold out.

7 Brian Epstein (Bet Now: $13.00) hasn’t done much since arriving in Australia from the UK but his best is certainly good enough. Latest run was Geelong Cup Day when on speed but didn’t find much under pressure when down the track behind Vitruvius. This is his D-Day for sure.

13 Sistine Explorer (Bet Now: $3.40) for me. Andrew Noblet trained filly that was well tried first up in a Ballarat maiden and under a confident ride from Johnny Allen, she finished best and was strong late in getting the job done. Even race, but she looks a likely prospect and has more upside than most.

9 Brownie (Bet Now: $4.80) will be out of trouble on speed for the Maher/Eustace camp. Opperman went way too hard on her on the Parks track last time, with the mare getting the staggers late and was bloused late by Hearty Lass. If she can get a more economical run, she can bounce back.

6 Electric Belle (Bet Now: $13.00) is a proven city performer that is first up. This girl hasn’t raced since the Winter when proving herself to be a city class horse, winning at Sandown, ending the prep with a solid effort in the Rivette Final. Think she’ll be okay on wet ground and strikes a winnable race.

I think 12 Ravaged Award (Bet Now: $4.80) is an exciting prospect and can take this out. It was a maiden win at Ballarat, but the way she savaged the line the last 150m when clear was outstanding and big tick is that the overall time was two lengths quicker than the 64 race on the same meeting. Faster time than the seasoned horses, upside to come, winnable race…have to be with her.

7 Jump The Broom (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Team Hawkes trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since her debut at Geelong back in June when a dominant on speed winner in a race where the form out of it has been quite strong. Liked a recent jumpout. Just needs luck from a tricky gate.

5 Thunder Peak (Bet Now: $14.00) is a first four threat. This gelding for Mike Moroney resumed at Ballarat where he paraded like he would need the run and that is how it panned out behind Swamp Vixen. Better for that run, gets an inside gate, an improved showing is on the cards.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 6 The Last Napoleon

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Burning Power

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 13 Sistine Explorer

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 5, 9, 10, 12

Leg Two: 2, 6

Leg Three: 4, 6, 9, 13

Leg Four: 5, 7, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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