A bumper card has been assembled for Flemington this Saturday, where it is Finals Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:50am) : Taj Rossi Series Final 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Ma Raison (Best Odds: $13.00) on top for me here. The filly debuted over 1400m here a couple of weeks back and worked home very strongly from near last to run fourth to Bengal Cat, beaten just over three lengths. She started huge odds there, so I am not sure the stable rated her as a prospect there, but given the way she ran there, the mile now looks perfect at start number two, has a stack of upside and looms as one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: El Greco (Best Odds: $3.80) was smashed in betting to win that race mentioned above last time out, and seemingly had his chance I thought. He did sit wide, but he had cover for the entire trip and was let down at the right time by Nolen, but the horse didn’t quite finish off, so there is a doubt about him running 1600m, but he is the class runner.
Roughie: Royal Rumble (Best Odds: $6.50) comes to this race on the quick back up after racing last weekend at Morphettville Parks, where he hit the line powerfully from off the pace to get the job done, albeit in a race which didn’t carry much depth. Despite that, I do like the stable confidence of sending this gelding to Melbourne to tackle a much harder race, and one thing with this horse is that he is a winner and knows where the post is.
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Race Two (12:20pm) : A.R. Creswick Series Final 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Don’t see any reason to jump off Husson Eagle (Best Odds: $3.50). He stormed home from near last to run fourth at Stakes level during the Adelaide Carnival before coming to a heat of this series over 1000m here, and aided by a lovely ride from Jordan Childs, the gelding sprinted hard and then clung on to win. He and Rough Justice do appear the pair to beat, but I’ll lean with Husson Eagle.
Big Danger: Rough Justice (Best Odds: $3.80) ran a close second to Husson Eagle in that race mentioned above before coming back here again over 1100m and after some good support in betting, the son of Wanted kicked clear halfway down the straight after a good trip to get the job done, albeit narrowly, but impressively. He loves racing at his home track and looks the logical threat.
Roughie: Valderrama (Best Odds: $8.50) scored a strong debut win on the Geelong Synthetic before going to the Valley and looking home, but was grabbed near home by Raposo, who franked the form by running a beauty without much luck last weekend at Caulfield. This galloper does have a fair bit of upside, and the Raposo form is probably the strongest leading into this race.
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Race Three (12:55pm) : Leilani Series Final 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really tough race to sort out here. I’ll give Nautical (Best Odds: $10.00) the nod here. She ran alright over this track/distance last start when fifth to Jessy Belle, beaten just over two lengths. She has proven costly to follow in recent times, but she draws well and senior rider in Steve Arnold takes over now. In a tricky race, I’ll go with her here.
Big Danger: Miss Rose De Lago (Best Odds: $3.90) was enormous in defeat when contesting that race mentioned above. She dragged the field up to the two leaders, then had the audacity to almost come back and beat Jessy Belle, but that mare had a soft run behind and pounced at the right time. James Winks goes back on, and he rides the mare very well. Draws well, and with a better run here, she can certainly win.
Roughie: Written (Best Odds: $15.00) comes back to Melbourne after a run at Randwick late last month, where she just didn’t appear 100% happy in the conditions when fifth to Electric Power. Returns to Melbourne and she does tend to save her best for Flemington. Jackie Beriman rides the mare better than anyone else, and the lead does look to be hers, and comfortably.
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Race Four (1:30pm) : VRC-CRV Cup Tour Trophy 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really don’t know what to do here. Refulgent (Best Odds: $6.50) is just bursting to win a race, but he can’t quite crack it and greet the judge first. He was in restricted room last time out here, but he did eventually get clear and make up ok ground without going overboard. Senior rider takes over now, draws well and looks ready for 2000m.
Big Danger: Shikarpour (Best Odds: $4.20) comes to Flemington off the back of a dominant display over this display at Ballarat in a weaker, yet handy race. He settled off the speed before going right around the field approaching the turn and under hard riding from Mick Dee, the import just blew his rivals away. Now that his confidence is up, he could go on with it, and I like that Dee has retained the ride.
Roughie: Tristram’s Sun (Best Odds: $11.00) wasn’t too bad I thought last time out at the Valley when fifth to Alcohol after getting a long way back in the run and making up good ground late. That was when ridden cold and the two starts prior he was ridden on speed, so I think we have figured out that riding him with a sit is his go, and if that eventuates here, with the rise to a more ideal trip, he can threaten.
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Race Five (2:10pm) : Slickpix Silver Bowl Series Final 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’ve got it between two runners, Duke Of Brunswick (Best Odds: $4.80) and Raposo. I’m going to lean towards Duke Of Brunswick, who has been excellent at his past two outings, resulting in a narrow Valley win over Raposo before going to Sale, and thanks to a peach ride from Mick Dee, the gelding proved far too good for his rivals. Continues to rise in weight, but he is a winner and just knows where the post is.
Big Danger: Raposo (Best Odds: $4.60) is on the quick back up here after racing last Saturday at Caulfield, where he was completely luckless in running fourth to Volcanic Ash. He got badly checked behind tired runners and it really was a ride Jess Payne would like to forget. Brad Rawiller takes over now, and his patient hands and style should really suit this horse, and you know that he’ll be very strong at the end of the mile.
Roughie: Plan (Best Odds: $10.00) is a stablemate of the top tip who resumed over the mile at Sale, and he just bolted in, winning by a space, then was later found to have pulled up with the thumps, adding a bit more effort to the win. Significant rise in depth, but he is talented, fit and Froggy takes the ride with only 54.5kg on his back.
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Race Six (2:50pm) : Rivette Series Final 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really tough race to sort out here. I’ll go with Manageress (Best Odds: $7.50) here. All four runs from her this time in have been pretty good I think, in particular last time out over this track/distance when storming home from near last to run third to Dodging Bullets, beaten less than a length. That was her first run at the mile and she loved it, so she should be better suited now the run is under the belt, and represents great value.
Big Danger: Kaizaen (Best Odds: $7.00) finished down the track in the race mentioned above after having seemingly every chance just off the speed. She didn’t let down at all and was a bad disappointment. She is much better than that, as we saw in the start prior when she finished off strongly behind Azeema. I couldn’t back her off that last start effort, but if she repeats her effort from two runs ago, she’s in the mix.
Roughie: Bonnie Belle (Best Odds: $15.00) has had a few runs now down under for Mike Moroney after formerly racing in New Zealand. She worked home well late in the Azeema race that Kaizaen ran second in. Bonnie Belle then went to the Pakenham Synthetic and again worked home well late. Clearly looking for the mile, and she gets that here, plus she returns to a bigger track. She is the definite improver.
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Race Seven (3:30pm) : VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series Final 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mr Utopia (Best Odds: $4.40) has been very good to me this campaign, and I am not going to drop off him in the Final. He has been enormous at his past couple, coming from near last on both occasions to finish within a length or two of the winner. Last time out he was two lengths off Amovatio, and he now meets that horse 2.5kg better, so I am confident he can turn the tables, especially from the better draw and with the likelihood of give in the track.
Big Danger: Returning to Melbourne should suit Good Value (Best Odds: $7.50), who went to Rosehill last time out and I think Bowman got it wrong that day when he scouted too wide on the track and gave up too much ground to the on speed runners. Comes back to Flemington, Callow takes back the ride, and though drawn awkwardly, he will love a fast run mile on a rain affected surface.
Roughie: By The Grace (Best Odds: $31.00) proved too classy for his rivals two back at Morphettville in a small field before coming to the 1800m here and he got stuck wide no cover on speed for the entire trip. He actually didn’t do a bad job to stick on in the end, finishing just over four lengths from the winner. Back to the mile looks ideal, and though this is a harder race, especially from the draw, he represents value.
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Race Eight (4:10pm) : All Victorian Sprint Series Final 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: About Sqaure (Best Odds: $13.00) for me here. He has only had one run this time in, back in Mid June down the straight here when working home well late to finish fifth to Hard Romp. Hasn’t raced since then, but he did look very sharp in a recent jump out here. This looks a deliberate plan from Mike Moroney and I like that Dunn sticks.
Big Danger: I was keen on Lonrockstar (Best Odds: $8.00) at the odds here a couple of weeks back off two luckless runs, and aided by a peach from Craig Williams, he burst through between runners and grabbed victory in the last couple of strides. Harder here, but if cuddled up and then presented, he has a lethal turn of foot and he won’t mind the track having some give in it.
Roughie: Desert Jeuney (Best Odds: $13.00) ran fourth in the Lonrockstar race and he was fantastic considering that was his first run since the Emirates Stakes in the Spring. He sat off them and just launched late, but just missed late. Fitter, extra 100m, Winks sticks and in terms of class, he has these covered. If he is within striking range at the clock tower, he can win for sure.
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Race Nine (4:45pm) : Banjo Patterson Series Final 2600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Giving De Little Engine (Best Odds: $3.80) one more chance here. He has just got too far back at his past two starts, largely due to bad gates, which is what he has got here again. I’m hoping Ollie can position him a touch closer, maybe a pair or two, because he is simply better than these, but he just keeps giving away too much head start. Looks the one.
Big Danger: Cooldini (Best Odds: $4.40) finished second in that Crafty Cruiser race, and he was very good from the back, making up a stack of ground to just miss out in a close photo finish. He had a jump trial prior to that, and that appeared to really sharpen him. Soft draw, Dunn rides and the horse has a great record at Flemington. Definite threat.
Roughie: Cadillac Mountain (Best Odds: $5.50) looked as though he was going to get past Crafty Cruiser, but that horse just packed too many guns and edged him out in a thrilling finish. Meets that horse 4kg better off, so he is the horse to follow from that form reference, draws well and Bossy takes the ride, and we know his fabulous record in staying events, especially at Flemington.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Mr Utopia
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Husson Eagle
VALUE: Race Eight Number 11 About Square
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 11, 12, 15, 17
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 16
Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11
Leg Four: 3, 4, 7, 8
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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