A heat of the Winter Championship highlights the nine race program set to be run and won at Flemington this Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:45) : Eugene Gorman Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Coroebus (Bet Now: $19.00) is a regally bred colt by Choisir out of Circles Of Gold, making him a relation to champion gallopers Elvstroem and Haradasun. Jump outs have been impressive, trained on the track and draws to be out of trouble.
Big Danger: 13 Linguist (Bet Now: $14.00) is a well bred filly making her debut for the Ellerton/Zahra team. Another that has looked the part at the jump outs and the family bloodline suggest she’ll be performing well early.
Roughie: 2 Eminent Son (Bet Now: $20.00) debuted on the Pakenham Synthetic a couple of weeks back where he sat on speed and fought on strongly when a close up third to Bay Harmony. Draws to be in the clear and is well weighted after the claim.
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Race Two (12:15) : Trevor Clarke Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Payroll (Bet Now: $6.00) looks one of the better bets on the program. Her first up run here three weeks back was a beauty given she had to stick to nearer the inside, which wasn’t the place to be. Draws well, senior rider engaged, fitter, class…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 12 Avenue Whisper (Bet Now: $8.50) was far too good for her rivals last time out under the lights at Cranbourne, and though she didn’t beat much, she was just simply dominant. The thing with Darren Weir runners is that when they break their maiden, they usually follow on and win again, so respect this filly enormously.
Roughie: 11 Stormsabrewing (Bet Now: $16.00) has been given a good freshen up since scoring a very impressive debut win at Wangaratta on April 21. She did plenty wrong in the straight, but she was super and there just looked to be upside, upside, upside. Hasn’t caught my eye at the jump outs, but on that win first up, I’m confident she’ll measure up.
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Race Three (12:50) : L.V. Lachal Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 7 Runson (Bet Now: $4.00) was well backed to win first up at Pakenham and was superb in winning given that was the first time he had been ridden quiet, and he really reacted to it. Has always promised to perform at this level and beyond. This looks a nice race.
Big Danger: 8 Lord Von Costa (Bet Now: $26.00) creates plenty of interest here. This three year old is a real talent who resumes after running in the Wagga Country Championships Qualifier. No trials, but he has talent and class, and first up at 1000m is ideal.
Roughie: Big watch on 2 Sempre Libera (Bet Now: $31.00), who didn’t really fire much when with Gai Waterhouse. Now with Robert Smerdon, and a recent Cranbourne trial was very good. If she is anywhere near right, she would just about take care of this lot.
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Race Four (13:23) : Ken Cox Handicap (90) 1800m:
Back Me: 3 Mihany (Bet Now: $6.00) ran over the mile here three weeks ago and was enormous in getting the job done, sitting outside a hot speed and fighting on like a tiger to eventually draw clear and won impressively. That was a real gutbuster, so how much harm he took off that is the query, but the extra week off should have really helped with that.
Big Danger: 7 Holy Cow (Bet Now: $3.10) looks the one to beat on form after a slashing third to Gabella in a Stakes race during the Adelaide Carnival. She’s hard to find and trust, but she seems to be a bit more consistent now and is a definite threat.
Roughie: 5 Time To Test (Bet Now: $4.20) ran over this track/distance three weeks back and tried hard but was no match for the booming finish of the handy mare Amarela. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise, draws well and has upside.
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Race Five (14:02) : Young Members Ball Handicap 2500m:
Back Me: 3 Second Bullet, (Bet Now: $2.05) though rising sharply in trip, looks the one now after scratchings. He was super over 2000m here three weeks back when chasing hard but couldn’t quite hold out Turnitaround, who had a big weight swing in his favour. Up to 2500m isn’t easy, but he has upside and the claim for Ben Thompson helps.
Big Danger: 9 Golden Mane (Bet Now: $13.00) was an alarming drifter in betting a fortnight back at Sandown on the bog track and though he didn’t appear to handle the conditions, he did take ground off stablemate Bold Sniper. A firmer surface will really help him and the weight relief is a big tick.
Roughie: 8 Araldo Junior (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over 2000m here three weeks ago and stuck to the task quite gamely when running fourth to Turnitaround, who franked the form by winning last Saturday. He has won up to 2800m so the distance will be no issue and he does look to have good upside.
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Race Six (14:42) : Craftsman Handicap (78) 2000m:
Back Me: 2 Torelli (Bet Now: $3.80) was smashed in betting last time out at Bendigo and was given a lovely on speed steer from Mark Zahra to win quite impressively. He has the Weir polish, and the way he ran through the line at Bendigo, the 2000m here will be no issue.
Big Danger: 16 Vanilla Gold (Bet Now: $14.00) won her maiden at Ballarat last time out, and though she beat nothing, I really liked the way she attacked the line and put the race away quickly. Her run prior during the Warrnambool Carnival was a ripper, and she has upside, so I think she can measure up here.
Roughie: 11 Sadia (Bet Now: $34.00) won his maiden under the Cranbourne lights last time out and he took an absolute eternity to get the job done, but the photo finish went his way. Has always looked a city class horse since his debut, and now he’s here. Massive threat I think.
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Race Seven (15:22) : VRC-CRV Winter Championship Heat 3 1400m:
Back Me: 14 The New Boy (Bet Now: $6.50) looks the one to beat here. He ran over this track/distance three weeks back and tried his heart out but had to settle for second to impressive winner Jimando. Looks the leader here, and though he rises in grade, he is a tough and gritty customer who will prove hard to run down.
Big Danger: 5 She’s Clean (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the back up after running a shocker last weekend at Rosehill behind stablemate Marenostro. I was really thinking she’d run well there after a luckless Dark Jewel effort at Scone, but she let me down. On a slightly firmer surface here, and the trip away, could sharpen her up.
Roughie: 10 Freshwater Storm (Bet Now: $31.00) has been given a month freshen up since running sixth to Petrology in a messy race at Caulfield, beaten under two lengths. Form out of the race looks suspect, but he has good upside and the little break between runs and the last time he was a month between runs, he ran a game second in the Pakenham Cup.
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Race Eight (16:02) : Jezzabeel Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 10 Olivier (Bet Now: $4.20) is in ripping form at the moment for Darren Weir. He was wide no cover last start at Caulfield yet cruised up to them at the top of the straight and put the race away. No reason why he can’t continue the picket fence.
Big Danger: 4 Hard Romp (Bet Now: $9.00) is a consistent performer for Ciaron Maher who hasn’t raced since running a close up fifth at this track/distance behind the subsequent Group l performer Supido. Recent Cranbourne trial was encouraging and he does save his best for the straight.
Roughie: Tony Vasil returns to the racing game courtesy of 3 General Truce (Bet Now: $71.00), who is getting on in years, but he does tend to save his best for Flemington, and he wasn’t far off Nautical first up. Drawn to be out of trouble and is an exotic player.
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Race Nine (16:38) : Comic Court Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Aurum Spirit (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over the Flemington mile three weeks back and closed off very strongly in the race won by Mihany, and he was one of only a couple to make significant ground on the leaders in that race. Back in trip looks ideal and he shapes up to be one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 1 Volcanic Ash (Bet Now: $12.00) resumed behind Show A Star at Caulfield and made up good ground from the back to run fourth. He has more upside and hopefully won’t get as far as what he did that afternoon, and I think the bigger surroundings of Flemington will suit him perfectly.
Roughie: 10 Bradman (Bet Now: $13.00) is on the back up after racing over 1400m at Morphettville Parks a fortnight ago where he tried hard but just got bogged down by the hefty impost when third to Brinkley Bliss, who was well backed in betting. Getting weight relief is the positive. The negative is that he hasn’t won for a long time.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Olivier
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 14 The New Boy
VALUE: Race Nine Number 5 Aurum Spirit
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 16
Leg Two: 3, 5, 10, 12, 14
Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 10
Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 10, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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