Super Saturday arrives at Flemington on Saturday with a nine race card highlighted by a couple of cracking majors, the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and Australian Cup (2000m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:15) : The Melbourne Cup Carnival On Sale Handicap (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Cannyescent (Best Odds: $3.40) is a talented galloper that mad ehis Victorian debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team at Ballarat and though the win was nothing flash, I really liked the way he toughed it out and found when challenged. Got some really good form behind him when trained by Gab Englebrecht, and he looks to have settled into Euroa quite nicely.
Big Danger: 10 Battlecamp (Best Odds: $4.40) is a bit of an enigma with punters, but he got back into the good books somewhat last time out at Sandown when he was a short priced elect against a pretty average field, and he rightfully spanked them. He has performed very well at Flemington previously and now that he has got the win on the board, he can go right on with it.
Long Shot: Wouldn’t be surprised to see improvement come from 6 King’s Command (Best Odds: $26.00). Hasn’t greeted the judge since winning first up, and I think he should be forgiven for last Wednesday at Sandown where he was nearer the inside and off the bit on the turn. Couldn’t really pick up. On his home track now and Callow steers. An improver for sure.
Race Two (12:50) : My Kitchen Rules Handicap (90) 1800m:
Back Me: 10 Hursley (Best Odds: $2.90) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets his chance here. He ran over 2000m here three weeks back where he sat near the tempo in a very slowly run race and fought on strongly but was bloused late by Post D’France, who ran well in the Roy Higgins last week. Back to 1800m really suits and really, this looks his race.
Big Danger: 9 Red Alto (Best Odds: $4.60) is the horse up and about, in ripping form for the Paul Banks yard. He ran over 1500m at Moonee Valley last time out where he was ridden a treat by Currie and the horse clung on to beat Coram. That’s nothing to get excited about, but I think 1600 to 1500 there was a negative. Up to 1800m is ideal.
Long Shot: 1 Aloft (Best Odds: $9.00) is the very interesting runner here. He made his Australian debut for Team Williams in the Spring over 2040m at the Valley when third to Killarney Kid before going to the Bart Cummings where he was no match for subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Almandin. He creates plenty of intrigue here. Big watch.
Race Three (13:25) : Incognitus Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Matty (Best Odds: $4.60) could well develop into a Group l horse in due time. He is a ripper for the Ellerton/Zahra camp who won two from two in the Spring before being tipped out. Resumed at the Valley where he was heavily backed off the back of impressive jump outs and despite doing a bit wrong in the straight, he was too good. Big baby with so much to learn, but once he does, he’ll rise up the sprinting ranks.
Big Danger: 16 Villa Rosa (Best Odds: $13.00) is a very good filly for Ciaron Maher who has had no luck since her sharp debut win at Mornington. Her two defeats have come at the Valley where she has been badly held up behind runners with plenty to offer, the latest in the Typhoon Tracy. She just needs clear running here to give this a shake.
Long Shot: 13 Clockwork Orange (Best Odds: $15.00) is a regally bred mare that won’t live up to mum and dad, but she is talented herself and has come back in super order. Two runs this time in have both been at the Valley and both times she had no luck. Badly held up fresh behind Magnatti before a game second to subsequent Typhoon Tracy winner Brugal Reward after sitting wide. 1100m looks perfect, and third up, she should be ready fitness wise.
Race Four (14:05) : MSS Security Sires Produce Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Groundbreak (Best Odds: $8.50) is a smart looking colt for Team Hawkes who will appreciate the rise in trip after resuming down the straight in the Talindert where he seemed to get a bit lost down the course but once he balanced up and got his mind on the job, he finished off strongly. He’ll love the rise to 1400m here, getting back to a bending track and has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 3 Eshtiraak (PROMO Odds: $3.60) is a smart colt with a bit of promise about him, winning three on the bounce since a narrow second on debut at Geelong in a hot maiden. The latest of those wins came on Feb 22 over 1300m at Sandown where he sat near the speed and fought on strongly to win under Oliver. Maps well here and will appreciate the extra 100m no doubt. Key threat.
Long Shot: 9 Black Sail (Best Odds: $31.00) debuted behind Eshtiraak at Sandown in that Feb 22 race and I thought he was really good late despite doing plenty wrong not really knowing what he was meant to be doing. Would have loved a set of blinkers go on him, but that aside, I think the Flemington 1400m will be perfect with natural improvement.
Race Five (14:40) : TAB Kewney Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: All over 3 Ellicazoom (Best Odds: $6.00) here. She’s a star filly for the Parnham yard who made her Eastern debut in the Angus Armanasco (1400m) a fortnight back where she was ridden perhaps a touch too close to the speed but despite that, she fought on very gamely and was only grabbed right on the peg by Savanna Amour. She’ll be much better when ridden with cover and if that can eventuate here, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 I Am Star (Best Odds: $2.00) is indeed a star and she will love the drop back to her own age/sex after contesting a couple of cracking races to kick off the prep, the latest coming in the Oakleigh Plate where she ran a game seventh to Sheidel. Unbeaten in two runs at Flemington, draws well and Yendall is back on. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 4 Kenedna (Best Odds: $7.00) is an absolute beauty for the Weir camp. Been up for a long time but continues to race so well. Looked outclassed in the Vanity to some, but the blinkers went on and she was given a peach by Lane, having the filly parked off the speed and pushing the button at the right time. More depth here, but likeable and see no reason to ignore her here.
Race Six (15:15) : Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m:
Back Me: 14 Pure Pride (Best Odds: $5.00) is a classy mare who wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Coolmore. She resumed over 1400m here three weeks ago and looked a risk from the gate and in the end, that’s what probably beat her when a close up third to Ample On Offa. Last time she was at the mile here, she arguably should have won the Myer. Big player here.
Big Danger: 7 Domino Vitale (Best Odds: $13.00) strung together two wins during the Summer, including a dominant win over this track/distance, before being freshened up. Resumed in the Mannerism where she sat outside Silent Sedition and tried hard but just gave out condition wise late. Has the run under the belt now, and is on the minimum now.
Long Shot: 16 Smart As You Think (Best Odds: $15.00) is a filly who I have got a lot of time for and I think she will take some beating in either the Australian Oaks or SA Oaks. Resumed in the Armanasco and closed off very strongly late in the piece behind Savanna Amour after getting held up a touch early on. Draws a lovely gate here, Bayliss steers and she has enormous upside. One of many great each way hopes here.
Race Seven (15:55) : Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Sticking fat with 2 Spieth (Best Odds: $3.80). I am convinced he should have won the Lightning (1000m) first up but pilot error from Bowman, IMHO, cost him the win. Chose to go between runners when there was clearly a chance to go inside and dash, where most winners had been for the day. Still, his run was enormous. Extra furlong looks perfect, and really he ticks every box. The worry I have is that he is poorly weighted. Still, happy to be with him.
Big Danger: 7 Illustrious Lad (Best Odds: $8.50) was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Lightning but despite the market drifter, he ran an absolute beauty on speed and fought on so well. Only picked off the final couple of strides when fifth to Terravista, beaten 0.8L. 1000m is too short for him. 1200m is his go and he has fab stats at the track/distance, and gets right down in the weights, one of the key weight drop runners from the Lightning to here. Big threat.
Long Shot: I reckon the big improver here could be 11 Counterattack (Best Odds: $34.00). The Lightning looked like a barrier trial for him to my eye. Dropped out to last, trucked up, peeled out to the inferior ground and despite that, I thought he hit the line okay. He is one the better winners in terms of the weights, and he is very good when racing down the straight.
Race Eight (16:35) : TAB Australian Cup 2000m:
Back Me: Just have to go with 10 Humidor (Best Odds: $3.80) here. He’s absolutely bursting to win a Group l race and I think he gets his chance here. Three runs for Weir have been high class in defeat, the latest in the Peter Young (1800m) when running a close up second to stablemate Stratum Star. I don’t think anything from the Peter Young will beat Humidor here, and that’s the key form race.
Big Danger: 11 Jameka (Best Odds: $4.00) was very brave I thought in the Peter Young. Just did far too much work up the hill and was left gassed when it mattered the most. Really good record at the track and last time she was here, she ran second to Hartnell before winning the Caulfield Cup. Expect her to bounce back hard.
Long Shot: 2 Awesome Rock (Best Odds: $15.00) just looks to be getting the miles in the legs for this. Was okay in the Orr (1400m) then not much went right in the Peter Young (1800m). Won the Emirates at this track/distance in the Spring, beating key rival The United States. Right in this at a price for sure on his best form.
Race Nine (17:20) : James Boags Premium Handicap (90) 1000m:
Back Me: I am giving 6 Bullpit (Best Odds: $13.00) a chance here at a price. I thought he was game in defeat last time out under the lights of the Valley over 955m when setting a very fast tempo and just tiring late when fifth to Beau Rada. He does race well down the straight but the one thing that is definitely in his favour is that Glen Boss steers and he rode the horse to its last win.
Big Danger: 7 Orujo (Best Odds: $9.50) was down to resume in the Lightning but was a late scratching. Instead, he resumed in a 955m race at the Valley a couple of Friday nights back where I thought he was really game in defeat given he sat on a hot speed and had every right to drop out but he kicked strongly, only to be nabbed late by Beau Rada. Really good second up record, and off that fresh effort, he’s right in this.
Long Shot: 14 Lonrockstar (Best Odds: $21.00) hasn’t raced for over a month since racing in the Sale Quality where he sat near last in a very slowly run race and couldn’t come on at all behind Rock ‘N’ Gold, who ran a beauty in the Apache Cat, so the form has been okay. Good record down the straight and back to 1000m is a big tick.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Humidor
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Matty
VALUE: Race Nine Number 6 Bullpit
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 10, 11
Leg Four: 6, 7, 10, 13, 14
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