The first Sydney race program in 2015 will take place at Royal Randwick, with eight strong races to be run and won, highlighted by the $100,000 Listed Tattersall’s Club Cup (2400m).
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Race One (1:20pm) : Happy New Year From The ATC Maiden Plate 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Very tough race to sort out. Starzel (Best Odds: $8.50) resumes here for Gerald Ryan after having just the one run back in January last year, a maiden at Newcastle when making up ground to run third to Modoc and Exalted Warrior, two pretty good horses when right. Was due to kick off her prep in the Winter, but was tipped out again and comes back now after a really nice trial effort on December 23 at Rosehill when fifth to stablemate Davities, who franked that form with an excellent debut last week. $8 looks a touch overs.
Big Danger: Bayrock (Best Odds: $7.50) did a power of work to lead from the wide gate first up at Canterbury and felt the pinch the final 100m before getting heavily checked near the line, which made the margin from the winner greater than what it should have been. Wide gate again here, but the trial win prior to resumption was too good to ignore.
Roughie: I also think another one who is overs is the Team Hawkes first starter Satya (Best Odds: $12.00), a $1 Million purchase by Redoute’s Choice who worked home very strongly in a December 23 trial at Rosehill when running a close up third. Team Hawkes have taken their time with this filly and they look as though they’ll get some rewards before too long.
Race Two (2:00pm) : TAB Place Multi Maiden Plate 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll be surprised if Chris Waller doesn’t win this. Going with Kipling (Best Odds: $3.00) to finally break his maiden tag after four frustrating seconds in as many runs this time in, the latest coming last week at Warwick Farm when narrowly beaten by a really good type in Hebden. That was a no metro race, he comes back to maiden company now and looks as though the Randwick 1200m should really suit.
Big Danger: Country Warrior (Best Odds: $9.50) has been a very frustrating galloper to follow, and I was quite disappointed with his first up fifth at Kensington behind Redoutable Heart, but his recent Rosehill trial placing was very sharp and he has been gelded, and we know that can make all the difference in the world.
Roughie: A very interesting first starter here is the Taree visitor Ocean Grand (Best Odds: $15.00), trained by Cliff Bashford. The son of Duporth won a trial at Coffs Harbour during their carnival, then was spelled and had another trial on his home track, winning by nearly eight lengths and running fair time. Bashford is an astute horseman, and he could have easily found a local maiden to run in, so the fact he brings the horse to town for its first start could well be a good lead.
Race Three (2:40pm) : More Than Ready Handicap (67) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: I still think Sadler’s Lake (Best Odds: $3.30) is a great chance here, because that Canterbury win was very sharp considering he was held up til the 200m mark and then burst through to win and win well. At Canterbury, it’s hard to have your momentum stopped, then pick up again, so it was impressive. Bigger track looks ideal, as does the rise to the mile. He would be on top, but I just think there is value in Modoc.
Big Danger: Streefragette (Best Odds: $4.20) trialled really well here prior to spanking his rivals first up at Kembla Grange on a heavy track, winning by nearly four lengths. Didn’t beat much, but the manner in which he did it was impressive, plus he now gets back to his home track and has the services of the in form rider in Australia, Hugh Bowman.
Roughie: Elevates (Best Odds: $6.00) was just fair when resuming at Kembla Grange, then went to Hawkesbury and was given a plum ride by Tommy Berry to win his maiden in impressive fashion, and run good time. Looks to have a stack of upside left, so the Randwick mile appeals with Tommy sticking.
Race Four (3:20pm) : Tattersall’s Club Cup 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Lucky Lucky Lucky (Best Odds: $3.80) has had two solid runs over 2400m at his past two starts, firstly behind Terai at Kensington, then here in the Christmas Cup when fourth to Saigon Tea when the horse perhaps didn’t appreciate the give in the ground. He does have the fresh legs in the race and has the minimum.
Big Danger: Permit (Best Odds: $6.00) was really good first up when beaten narrowly by Malice and Midsummer Sun before running midfield behind Malice again in the ATC Cup before running a howler in the Christmas Cup when on a rain affected track, which isn’t his go anymore. Fresh, firm footing, Shinn sticks and looks beautifully in at the weights.
Roughie: Chucking in Ghost Protocol (Best Odds: $14.00) as the roughie. He who stormed home from the back to win on the Warwick Farm mud on December 10, powering home out wide to win in a race which was quite inferior to what he faces here. He then ran on at Rosehill and that run should completely be ignored given the leader and eventual winner absolutely walked them in front and Ghost Protocol wasn’t suited at all by that. He then lobbed out the back in the Summer Cup and worked home steadily to finish five lengths of the winner. Would need to improve a bit to win, but perhaps a place with a good tempo.
Race Five (4:00pm) : TAB Rewards Handicap (70) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tumult (Best Odds: $6.50) worked home strongly two back behind Religify, running sixth, then had no luck at all behind Craftiness. Those two formlines are two of the strongest in Sydney at the moment, so I think Tumult is a safe way to go here in what looks to be a thin race depth wise.
Big Danger: Idance (Best Odds: $7.00) is a former Rockhampton galloper who has had a couple of preps in Sydney now for Team Hawkes, and has been quite hot and cold. One run he looks very impressive, the next he drops out and runs last, so he is hard to trust, but his recent Rosehill trial was really encouraging and Tommy Berry has won on the horse before.
Roughie: Rock Temple (Best Odds: $7.50) is a bit of a non winner, but he tries his guts out every time he steps out, like he did last time out over 1250m at Canterbury when third to Grunderzeit, beaten two lengths. I’d like to see him ridden cold, and I think from the middle draw that can eventuate. Different tactics could spark improvement.
Race Six (4:40pm) : Thoroughbred Breeders NSW Handicap (70) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Lifesaver Lady (Best Odds: $13.00). The Newcastle mare produced some barnstorming finishes when last in work, winning during the Coffs Harbour Carnival before a fast finishing second to Sultry Feeling at Canterbury. Resumes without a trial but is a good horse when produced fresh and only carries 54kg thanks to the claim for James Innes. $13 looks great overs IMO.
Big Danger: Vivid (Best Odds: $7.00) is the interesting runner here. Hasn’t been seen since March. She was due to have a Winter prep, but got injured and was tipped out again. Her two trials leading up to her return here have been outstanding and does fly fresh, so watch market moves with her here.
Roughie: Snow Lion (Best Odds: $9.00) sat wide throughout at Canterbury but still worked home well late when a narrow sixth to Cleanse, beaten just over a length. Good lead that Shinn sticks, better barrier and bigger track. Big chance.
Race Seven (5:20pm) : Drummond Golf Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: There was plenty to like about the win of His Majesty (Best Odds: $3.50) at Wyong on Magic Millions Day, coming off the speed and letting down very sharply when produced by Sam Clipperton to win and win well. There looks to be a stack of upside left with this horse, up to the mile and Bowman takes the ride. Ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: Shengli (Best Odds: $5.00) produced a sharp debut win back in August when with Paul Messara and has since run four straight seconds since being trained by Gary Moore, the latest of those seconds coming on December 17 when just failing to pick up Gossamer. Gets down to the limit, Tommy sticks, draws well and looks better suited on the bigger surroundings.
Roughie: Fuerza (Best Odds: $10.00) worked home well two back at Canterbury behind Craftiness, then went to Rosehill and just failed to pick up Saintly Lad on a bog surface. His record here is very good, Clenton retains the ride, drawn well and does get in pretty well at the weights, so perhaps the $13 on offer is a touch overs.
Race Eight (6:00pm) : TAB.com.au (70) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to put the Team Snowden runner Supreme (Best Odds: $8.50) on top. She resumed on Saturday at Kembla and was excellent there, closing off hard late for a narrow second to Diamondrocker in a thrilling finish. She came off the bit a fair way from home, but really found when asked and was surging late. She is bred in the purple and despite being still a maiden, Team Snowden aren’t afraid to test her in harder races.
Big Danger: God’s In Him (Best Odds: $5.00) was given every chance in front over this distance at Warwick Farm last time out, but the gelding just couldn’t quite hold off the two swoopers in Ghost Protocol and Bardiya. He is probably better ridden with cover, and I think from barrier one that should eventuate. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Largo Da Barra (Best Odds: $18.00) has worked home strongly in his opening two runs this time in, both of which in easier company. First up was over 1400m at Kembla Grange and the last start was over the Goulburn mile. He is trained on the track, third up now and does get some weight relief, as well as an inside gate.
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BEST BET: Race Two Number 4 Kipling
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Lucky Lucky Lucky
VALUE: Race One Number 13 Starzel
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 7, 9, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12, 14, 17
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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