An excellent card of racing has been assembled for Warwick Farm on Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is good and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One: Australian Turf Club Handicap 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Pink Perfection (Best Odds: $2.25) was a short priced favourite at Gosford a couple of weeks back, and after finding the lead, she kicked hard on the turn and looked home, only to be gunned down in the final few strides. She would have come on from that because that was her first run since mid October. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Shaftesbury (Best Odds: $4.00) is a first starter for Gai Waterhouse who didn’t trial too bad behind stablemate Fighting Sun, who was most impressive last Saturday. Strikes a thin race, so he can be in the finish.
Roughie: Stratalena (Best Odds: $13.00) hasn’t had much luck since finishing second (relegated to third on protest) behind Memorial. Caught wide with no cover behind that same horse at the next start, then last time out was caught wide on the speed and weakened late behind Invisible, a leading chance for the Magic Millions. With cover, she can improve.
$250 Pink Perfection Free Bet
Race Two: Tab Rewards Handicap (76) 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Loved the way Celtic Prince (Best Odds: $4.20) attacked the line to win two back over the 1900m at Canterbury, sustaining a long run from about the 700m mark and powering clear late. He came back in distance and was okay behind Koroibete, then stepped up to this distance and was tough on the line, holding off his rivals. The key to him is not hitting the front too soon. If he can be held up a touch longer, he’ll be hard to beat.
Big Danger: Inclined to put in Pentometer (Best Odds: $3.00) , due to the fact he has the Waller polish and steps up to the perfect distance. My only query is the weight. He is yet to carry a weight more than 55.5kg to victory in town, so that’s the worry for me, but if he can overcome that, then he’ll look the winner at some stage.
Roughie: Mr Scary (Best Odds: $6.00) is a perfect name for this horse, because he can get quite scared of the finish line. 23 starts for 3 wins and nine placings back that up. But he did breakthrough for a well deserved victory over 2000m at Randwick on New Years Day, so now that he has got another win on board, he could go on with it.
$250 Celtic Prince Free Bet
Race Three: Vinery Yearlings Handicap (75) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the program for mine here in Agadir (Best Odds: $5.00). Toyed with them on debut back in June at Muswellbrook. Spelled, trialled well, and made his return to the track at Kembla. He reared up in the gates when the loading process was taking place, vetted and passed fit to start. The record of horses who rear in the barriers and are passed fit to run isn’t great, but this bloke ambled around the 1300m of Kembla, and dashed away in the straight like a very good horse. Very confident he can handle the step up to city company.
Big Danger: I think bookies have got enough from the punters courtesy of Amovatio (Best Odds: $4.20) to an erect a bronze statue of the horse. I’ll give him one more chance here, because he draws beautifully and Christian Reith can get the best out of enigmatic horses.
Roughie: Centre Pivot (Best Odds: $6.00) probably found the 1600m a bit too much too soon on Boxing Day at Randwick. He loomed to win, but just couldn’t quite go on with it, so coming back to 1400m looks ideal.
$250 Agadir Free Bet
Race Four: 2014 ATC Membership On Sale Handicap (82) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I’ve Got The Looks (Best Odds: $3.80) bolted in off a freshen up on her home track at Warwick Farm, then was luckless at her next two at Kensington before making amends at Canterbury. Kayla Cross, who knows the mare so well, takes the ride, drawn to get a beaut sit off the pace and does have a sharp turn of foot. Looks the one.
Big Danger: I liked Recoinage (Best Odds: $5.50) at Kensington a fortnight back and she was ok after doing some work early, then went down narrowly in a close finish to I’ve Got The Looks. Meets the top tip worse off at the weights, but does appear to have some upside while the other mare is closer to the end of her prep rather than the beginning.
Roughie: Kristy Lee (Best Odds: $6.50) wasn’t given the best ride by Oliver at Canterbury. She was last on the fence and eventually got clear 200m out and flashed home between runners. She can certainly win this if the breaks go her way.
$250 I’ve Got The Looks Free Bet
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Race Five: Western Sydney Handicap 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Oh good old Said Com… (Best Odds: $1.90) he just keeps teasing punters with eye catching runs. He was the best of the beaten brigade at Canterbury behind Messene, which is clearly the best form line for this. But he is a non winner, that’s the risk you take in backing him.
Big Danger: Back to the mile, a drop in weight, a drop in class and returning to a track he has performed well at could spark improvement from Monton (Best Odds: $3.00), who was pretty ordinary in the Summer Cup, but he did do some work in the run there. Draws to get a soft run here, and on his best form, he’d go very close to winning this, but like Said Com, he is a non winner.
Roughie: Sainthood (Best Odds: $13.00) wasn’t too bad behind Emblems first up, coming from a fair way back to finish four lengths away. He could surprise, but it’s been a long time since he has won also.
$250 Said Com Free Bet
Race Six: Ibis Milano Lunch Special Handicap (80) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: The speed map will indicate that Imperil (Best Odds: $4.20) could dominate the race from the front. Problem is that the he is very hard to follow. In saying that, a soft time on the speed at Warwick Farm over 1400m will get you home more often than not, so for that reason, I’ll put him on top. He just raced too keen last week behind Two Blue and had nothing left for the straight. With better manners, he can win.
Big Danger: Rastro (Best Odds: $7.50) has been given a few weeks to get over the torrid run he had last start at Rosehill where he pulled his head off outside a hot speed and was left with nothing in the straight. He still battled on for fifth, so his effort was good, and he does look as if he’ll get a lovely cart over from the barrier thanks to the two horses mentioned above.
Roughie: Territory (Best Odds: $5.00) has been good in a couple of runs since his impressive first up win at Kensington. Drawn the pain, well in at the weights after the claim and is on his home track, which is a distinct advantage here at Warwick Farm.
$250 Imperil Free Bet
Race Seven: Tab.com.au Handicap (75) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: I can only see two winning hopes here- Hunter Jack and Runhardasun (Best Odds: $4.80). Going with the latter here. Loomed to win three back, but didn’t want to beat off Senta Desert. He then ran at Rosehill three weeks back and was gallant behind Pentometer, giving that horse the perfect drag into the race. Back to the mile is a slight concern, but it’s a very thin race.
Big Danger: Hunter Jack (Best Odds: $3.80) has produced three ripping runs from as many starts this preparation. Loved the way he attacked the line late when fourth to Rolston. Up to the mile looks perfect, and the claim for Ichikawa places him so well here.
Roughie: Star Of Helicon (Best Odds: $9.00) was ridden upside down at Kensington last start, but it didn’t matter as he proved too good for his rivals, beating home Our Celladoor, who won at that track during the week. With a more quiet ride, and a cart into the race, he can certainly figure in the finish.
$250 Runhardasun Free Bet
Race Eight: Warwick Farm Handicap (90) 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Let’s Rock’n’roll (Best Odds: $5.50) is a frustrating horse for punters. He trials like a star, but when it comes to raceday, he performs well, but doesn’t win as many races as he probably should. He has trialled superbly twice in preparation for this, so I’ll get sucked in by him again.
Big Danger: Didntcostalot (Best Odds: $4.60) was given a gem ride by Robl to get the bikkies last time out at Kensington, beating several of his rivals here. Rises 4kg in weight, so that’s the steadier, but he is drawn to get a soft run off the pace to hopefully offset the weight.
Roughie: Mighty Obvious (Best Odds: $19.00) has found a new lease on life this preparation. Take away his second up run at Hawkesbury and each of his starts this prep have been full of merit. Loved the way he toughed it out to win at Gosford last start, and he ran fast time. He’ll probably lead these, and cop pressure, but he is a tough customer and is on the minimum.
$250 Let’s Rock’n’roll Free Bet
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Best Bet: Agadir (Best Odds: $5.00)
Next Best: Let’s Rock’n’roll (Best Odds: $5.50)
Best Roughie: Celtic Prince (Best Odds: $4.20)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 2, 3
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10
$50 Investment= 23.14% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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