11/9/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Kembla Grange, Run To The Rose day

Blacktype racing continues this Saturday at Kembla Grange, where it is Run To The Rose Day, the 1200m feature the key lead up to the Group l Golden Rose (1400m) in two weeks time. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres from the 1100m-Winning Post; Out two metres for the remainder.

Run To The Rose 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Run To The Rose

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I want to give 6 Phillipsburg (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) another chance. James Ponsonby trained gelding that ran in a Highway here four weeks ago. If you were on him, like I was, gee it was an ugly watch. He was trucking in behind the speed but when it came to getting clear, it just didn’t happen and it was ugly. He’s flying and should take a power of beating.

15 Princess De Roca (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a mare with talent for Joe Cleary. This mare hasn’t raced since August 15 when winning at Moruya, her second win on the bounce, and liked the way she dug in when required. Had a tick over trial at Moruya last week and looked sharp, so keen to see how she goes.

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 3 Brother Bessy (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS). Cameron Crockett trained gelding that resumed at Mudgee on a shifty track and I don’t think he was 100% happy in the conditions, so want to be forgiving. I reckon he’s a better horse on firmer footing, he gets that here and gets Bowman steering.

This just looks a perfect race for 1 Mankayan (Bet Now: $1.75 TOP ODDS). Maher/Eustace trained import for Australian Bloodstock that was having start two in Australia two weeks ago over 2000m here. He was left very flat footed when the sprint went on but picked up late and attacked the line with purpose. He’ll eat up 2400m, got upside…I think he’s a good thing.

7 Accountability (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) has found winning form and can go right on with it. There had to be a reason why J Mac was sticking with him because he was racing poorly, but the believers were rewarded last Wednesday on the Kenso track with a strong win. Now he has found winning form, he can go on with it.

If 5 Master Shuhood (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) runs up to his effort last Friday in the Wyong Cup, he should be a $4 chance, not double figures. Just not sure what to make of the run because even though he ran so well, he was $101. Hard to know which way he’ll go but purely off form, he’s hard to beat.

9 Yiyi (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is racing very well at the moment for Chris Waller and is knocking on the door to win at Saturday metro level. Looked like it would come here two weeks ago, but had to settle for a narrow second to Kordia in a blanket finish. The only query being the track being firm because he clearly likes getting his toe in.

The genius of Chris Waller was on display a fortnight back with 3 Our Intrigue (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) winning at $30+ at this track/distance. She was dreadful the start prior but she was taken back home, a smile was put on her face and away she went, winning impressively. If she can at least hold that, she’ll take beating again.

Now that 11 Bazooka (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) has won a race, can he go on with it? David Payne trained four year old that broke a long run of outs when getting the job done at Hawkesbury. He fell in, getting the staggers late, but he got the win on the board. Proven city performer that should run well.

I’ll cop the tip with 6 Cobia (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS). Brad Widdup has this gelding and he did have last start metro winner Calgary Queen nominated so the fact he goes with this guy as his sole rep, combined with J Mac booked, is good enough for me. Wide no cover at Hawkesbury last time and battled on well when a close up fourth. Should get a soft trip from the draw and is hard to beat.

I think back to 1200m is a big tick for 2 Exceltic (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS). Gary Portelli trained gelding that ran in the Midway here two weeks ago over 1300m. He got back but came with strong momentum out wide, looking the winner, but just couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Royalzel. Like him back to 1200m and is hard to beat.

1 Oxford Tycoon (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) deserves a Midway win. If you were on him two weeks back here, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. It was quite clearly the sickest beat of the meeting, the week, the month…maybe even the year. He should have won comfortably but had no luck in the straight. Normal luck here and he’ll go close.

7 Silent Impact (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a high quality colt for the WaterBott camp that should take beating here and measure up. Class got him home on debut at Goulburn. He then went to Rosehill and the class was there to see again, winning and winning quite well. He’s blacktype for sure and confident he can confirm that here.

See no reason why 1 Tiger Of Malay (Bet Now: $3.50) can’t win. Lovely rail hugging steer from J Mac saw him win the Up And Coming four weeks ago, his first run since the JJ Atkins. Got upside to come, extra ground suits, has class and really, just has to show natural improvement to go close again IMO.

I’m giving respect to the Queenslander, 11 Hinged (Bet Now: $10.00). Formerly with Mick Nolan at Toowoomba, she now finds herself with Chris Waller thanks to Brae Sokolski opening up the wallet to buy her. She was dominant against her own age in Queensland and has been purchased as a potential Flight Stakes filly. She’ll be on speed and one thing she loves to do is dig in when challenged, so keen to see how she goes.

If 4 Entriviere (Bet Now: $2.30) is anywhere near right, which I think she is, she just beats this lot. High class mare for Jamie Richards that returns to Australia. Had a one run prep in Sydney during The Championships when enormous in defeat behind Fasika in the Sapphire. Has looked outstanding in two trials back home in NZ to get ready, along with a Randwick trial win, and stable doesn’t get it wrong when they bring them over.

8 Written Beauty (Bet Now: $5.00) has the engine under the hood to give this a shake. Team Hawkes trained mare that was tardy away when resuming in the Toy Show but I thought she closed off pretty well and was a definite pass mark behind Fituese. She has brilliance and can win this for sure. Just needs to jump cleanly.

1 Forbidden Love (Bet Now: $11.00) looks to have returned in good order. Team Freedman trained Group l winning mare that resumed in the Toy Show a few weeks back at Randwick and I thought she was excellent from off the speed, slicing her way through the field and making up good ground. Fitter, up in trip, she appeals big time.

The set up here looks idea for 10 Big Parade (Bet Now: $2.60). Talented sprinter for Mark Newnham that ran a track record when bolting up over 1200m here a month ago, leading throughout and despite carrying 61kg in front, his late splits were some of the best of the meeting. Only has to hold that form, especially down to 53.5kg, gee he’ll take beating.

He’s a beauty 6 Private Eye (Bet Now: $5.50). He’s just a winner. He had to dig in and surge hard to win the Show County three weeks ago and indeed he did, finishing over the top and nailing Embracer near the peg. Heading towards the Doncaster/Golden Eagle and up in trip here, he’s a threat for sure.

7 Chat (Bet Now: $26.00) can fill a first four spot. He ran in the Show County when having the suck run behind the speed and battled on okay, though somewhat outclassed I thought behind Private Eye. All three runs this prep have come at 1100m/1200m, so a rise to 1300m is a positive and he’s a first four threat.

I’m betting on 1 Stay Inside (Bet Now: $7.50) getting firmer footing and making a statement. He resumed in the San Domenico and on face value, he was plain, but it was pretty much a barrier trial run race and his splits, in isolation, were excellent. Fitter, up in trip, firmer deck, I’m confident he can bounce back.

Great to see 2 Anamoe (Bet Now: $2.70) back at the races. Star three year old for James Cummings that resumes. He was the best juvenile from last season, placing in both the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper before spanking them in the Sires, albeit the overall time and rating was nothing flash. He could easily blow this field away. But this isn’t a Grand Final for him, so could I take short-ish odds for him? No.

A good performance from 8 Remarque (Bet Now: $3.80) here and he’s in The Everest. I think most would agree that is due to who is in the ownership more than anything, more so than what he has produced on the track. But in saying that, he was luckless in the Rosebud and that raced rated strongly. He’ll be around the mark, but does need to improve to beat what is a star studded line up.

I’ll take a punt with 8 Count De Rupee (Bet Now: $3.80), resuming for a very much in form Team Price stable. This guy was given a chance to be a Stradbroke horse in the Brisbane Winter via the Fred Best where he was down the track before coming back to Sydney and placing at Rosehill. Resumes without a trial, but stable is flying and trained here, I think he’ll run a beauty.

7 Zakat (Bet Now: $12.00) isn’t far off a win for James Cummings. Two runs back from a break have come at this track/distance, the latest being a fortnight back when a solid third to talented mare Madam Legend. Third up, he should be at peak fitness and is hard to beat I’d suggest.

6 Ventura Ocean (Bet Now: $6.50) is a very interesting runner. Kris Lees trained gelding that hasn’t raced for seven weeks. He resumed at Rosehill when getting the suck run behind the speed and tried hard, but condition just gave way late when fourth to Frosty Rocks. Tick over trial at Gosford behind Victorem was strong. Just want to see what the market does.

6 Kingshier (Bet Now: $2.80) is third up from a break for Team Hawkes and should just about be at peak fitness. Resumed with a strong win at Randwick, then backed that up with a very encouraging third to Kordia, beaten narrowly in a good effort. Only has to hold his form to go close.

3 Night Of Power (Bet Now: $26.00) has returned in good order for Bjorn Baker. Impressive first up win at Randwick before racing at Doomben two weeks back when snagged back from a wide gate and worked home strongly late behind Catesby. He can sit much closer in the run and third up, should be hard fit.

10 Monegal (Bet Now: $81.00) is an interesting runner on home track for Theresa Bateup. Few weeks between runs since contesting a Midway at Randwick where she didn’t get the rub of the green in the straight and should have finished much closer behind Tampering. Trained here, Brock Ryan back on, she can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 4 Entriviere

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Mankayan

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Stay Inside

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Three: 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 9, 10

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