Nine races will be run and won at Belmont on Saturday where it is Farnley Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:43) Glenroy Chaff Plate 1200m
I’m with 7 Harmika (Bet Now: $1.95) for Adam Durrant. Debuted over 1000m here two weeks ago when back off the speed and new to the caper, understandably so, but she closed off with real purpose late in a good effort. Draws soft, gets a rise in trip and has more upside than most. Likeable for sure.
4 Red Fifty Three (Bet Now: $3.40) might be a smart one for Team Williams. Hard in the market when debuting here last Wednesday and I thought the win had good merit to it. On speed and there to be run down, but found under pressure, fended them off and was strong. Confident he measures up.
2 Kaymay (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Susan Olive trained filly that resumes. She had a two run prep in the Autumn to start her career, winning on debut before being outclassed in the Sires. Interesting she resumes without a public trial, so watch the market and see what it does.
Race 2. (15:19) Free Entry To Belmont Park Mdn 1400m
The draw is tricky for 3 Hoover (Bet Now: $4.00), but he looks the most progressive. Four year old for Stephen Miller that is second up. Resumed over 1100m at Northam and worked home with real purpose from near last in the run, finishing a narrow second. Fitter, up in trip, he will take a power of beating.
7 Red Hot Hope (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Neville Parnham trained four year old that resumes. He had a two run prep in the Autumn, the second run being a down the track effort in the Lex Piper, a lead up for the Derby. Has trialled well leading in and should land in a plum spot from the draw.
12 Ocean Aura (Bet Now: $5.50) should be suited up in trip for Paul Roberts. This mare debuted over 1300m here where she was back, wide with cover, and though took a while to get into her work, she was good late. Think if she can show a bit more dash, she’ll be around the mark.
Race 3. (15:59) Amelia Park (bm72+) 1000m
I think 4 This’ll Testya (Bet Now: $2.30) can resume a winner for Adam Durrant. Talented mare that resumes, having not raced since June 12 here when wide no cover and tiring late but far from disgraced in defeat. Bolted up in a recent Lark Hill trial and is a bomb when produced fresh. She’ll do me.
6 Policiere (Bet Now: $2.30) is a fascinating runner. Three year old filly that takes on the older horses, but comes here as a first up winner having won impressively at this track/distance two weeks ago. Gets good weight relief, lands on speed and with upside to come, is likeable.
1 State Attorney (Bet Now: $7.50) has been solid since joining Michael Grantham and is certainly capable if he brings somewhere near his best. Ran over this track/distance a few weeks back and was solid late without being a winning threat behind Iseered Iseered. Small field helps and a win wouldn’t shock.
Race 4. (16:38) Tabtouch-wspeed Platinum-rs0mw 1400m
3 Ginger Flyer (Bet Now: $2.45) gets the nod for me. Simon Miller trained mare that resumed at this track/distance last Wednesday. Was keen in front and looked home when Parnham kicked her into gear but got the staggers late when second to Smashing. With improvement to come from that, she appeals.
1 Speedy Miss (Bet Now: $7.00) has been around the mark this prep for Team Pearce and isn’t far off a win I feel. Ran over 1400m here four weeks back and kept finding the line from off the speed in a solid effort when third to Beat The Bell. Gets in well after the claim and is a definite winning threat.
Interesting that 2 Beat The Bell (Bet Now: $5.50) comes back to 1400m, the track/distance which saw a win two back. Then stepped up to the mile two weeks back and was solid in defeat behind Brave Dream. If 1600m back to 1400m is okay for her, she’ll take beating here.
Race 5. (17:20) Ascend Sales Trophies (rs1mw) 1000m
8 Come Magic (Bet Now: $2.40) is a maiden but she looks to have a bit of quality about her and she does strike what looks a thin race, as a whole. Resumed at this track/distance when on speed throughout and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Wilchino. Hard to beat.
7 Type Won (Bet Now: $5.50) looks a progressive mare for Kieran McDonagh that comes here off the back of a dominant last start win at this track/distance. On speed throughout and when asked for the big effort by Pike, she kicked into gear and was impressive. She will look the winner for a fair chunk.
5 My Blueboy (Bet Now: $17.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but is an honest customer and should be thereabouts. Ran over 1000m at Northam last time out when near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well in defeat when third. Not sure he wins, but a must for exotics.
Race 6. (17:55) Crown Towers (rs1mw) 1600m
I want to give 1 Giant Leap (Bet Now: $2.45) another chance. I was with him when he raced at this track/distance two weeks ago and I thought Pike gave him every chance, only nabbed late out wide by Bad Wolf. He was 1300m to the mile, three weeks between runs, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement and is hard to beat, especially with the claim.
3 Karijini Aurora (Bet Now: $3.90) gets Pike steering and that is a decent lead. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back when just off the speed and tried very hard. Just couldn’t quite finish it off behind Brave Dream. Draws soft and with the jockey upgrade, she’s very likeable.
2 Ouqba Ted (Bet Now: $27.00) is third up now and should just about be at peak fitness. Looked in need of the run first up before stepping up to the mile behind Bad Wolf in the race mentioned above and was okay without setting the world on fire. He’s getting hard fit now and his best is good enough.
Race 7. (18:30) Farnley Stakes 1400m
7 Notorious One (Bet Now: $2.00) has really put it together this time in and a win here might well see his rating go up and potentially be a Railway contender. He has won three of four this time, with the 1400m at Belmont really being his sweet spot. Clearly a harder assignment here, but is well weighted and will be strong at the end.
6 Media Baron (Bet Now: $13.00) might need one more but he looks to have returned in good order. Resumed in the Idyllic Prince two weeks ago and was good late from the back behind Too Close The Sun in running fourth. Reckon he might need one more before reaching a peak, but the resumption was too encouraging to ignore.
Despite a plain first up record, 1 Trap For Fools (Bet Now: $10.00) has class and that will carry him a long way. He resumes for Lindsey Smith, having not raced since the Diggers Cup at Ascot back in April when game in defeat after being on speed. Trialled well leading so wouldn’t shock to see him run a positive race.
Race 8. (19:05) Schweppes (bm66+) 1400m
3 Downforce (Bet Now: $4.20) gets the nod for me. Neville Parnham trained gelding that is on the seven day back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday when back near last in the run before peeling wider and making up good ground late when third to Fangio. That form looks strong enough for this.
4 Skinnen Tins (Bet Now: $6.50) should be suited back to 1400m for Ashley Maley. Ran over the mile here last time out when on speed and gave a decent kick but couldn’t quite see it out behind Bad Wolf. Much better suited here I feel and back in trip with Chris Parnham steering, he’s a leading contender.
1 Miracle Man (Bet Now: $9.00) is one that easily win with somewhere near his best. First run for Jordan Rolfe came here at this trip three weeks back when far from disgraced in defeat behind a handy horse in Notorious One. He’ll take improvement from that and good lead that Pike sticks.
Race 9. (19:35) Seacorp (bm66+) 1200m
3 Cliffs Of Comfort (Bet Now: $5.50) on top in what looks a tricky race. He hasn’t set the world on fire in two runs back from a break, but they have been in races far stronger than this, the latest run being two weeks ago here when close up behind Kaptain Kaos. Third up, hard fit now and gets in pretty well after the claim.
11 Dunbar (Bet Now: $3.20) is close to a win for Team Williams but from a betting perspective, I couldn’t back him to win with confidence. Ran over 1200m here last Saturday and was given a 12/10 ride from Pike. There to win in the straight but couldn’t get past Sassy Trader. He can, but I’d rather watch him do it than back him to do it.
6 Power Of St George (Bet Now: $15.00) is an interesting runner. David Harrison trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since Feb 27 at Ascot when down the track behind Trump This. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and has trialled pretty well leading in. Market watch for sure.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 7 Notorious One
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Hoover
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 3 Cliffs Of Comfort
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Two: 7
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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