11/7/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Sir John Monash Stakes day

Feature racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday, with the Sir John Monash (1100m) the highlight across nine races. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Have to be with 1 The Felon (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) for the Maher/Eustace team. Was down to run last Saturday at Flemington but was scratched and saved for this softer option. Debuted on the Pakenham Synthetic and he was very sharp in putting them away, with Rodd easing him down the final 50m. He’s got more to come and up to 1400m should be fine.

I’m interested in 3 Efflorescence (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) for Anthony Freedman. Had good market support when racing in a 1400m maiden on the Ballarat Synthetic las time out where Egan rode her positively from the outset to find the front and she booted some six lengths clear early on in the straight, eventually winning by 2.5L. Hard to beat I think.

5 Confrontational (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a Jason Warren trained colt that was good on debut at Mornington when leading and fighting on well to run second to Twain’s Express. Then stepped up to the mile at Bendigo where he seemed to have his chance but battled away really well to run third. Back to 1400m I don’t mind and can race on speed.

1 All Over Bosanova (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) has a bit on these in terms of class and recent form and I think she can bounce back. I think she’s been poorly placed this prep in all three runs, contesting open sprints. Has run okay, but they haven’t been races she can win. Drops to benchmark company and back against Mares, she’s very likeable even with the weight.

6 Propelle (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) can improve big time second up. Ellerton/Zahra trained mare that resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago where she paraded like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind the in form Alfa Oro. Has a really good second up record and is suited back against the Mares.

5 She’s A Thief (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a Mike Moroney trained mare that has found winning form after getting the job done over 1200m here two weeks ago, fending off the challengers all the way up the straight to kick on strongly and get the job done in what I thought was a much easier race than this. But she does get a good run on speed here, hard fit now and back to 1100m I do like.

2 Strategic Phil (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a few weeks between runs for David Briedoake after racing over the mile last time out at the Valley. Looked to get a sweet run under Billy Egan and loomed large to win, but just found one better in Holbein, who has now found some good form and is a quality animal when right. Back to 1400m I like and finds a winnable race.

1 Sonaree (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) tries his heart out every time he steps out for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he got the bias in his corner and took advantage of it on speed, beating all bar an in form Morrissy. The 84 back to 78 set up I do like, he’ll put himself on speed and get every chance.

Not dropping off 13 I Could Do Better (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) for Chris Waller. Former UK galloper that has had a couple of runs in Australia for Waller. Wide no cover fresh at Flemington behind Honey Esprit in a total forgive before going to the mile here where he was back against the bias. Very forgiving of both runs, so giving him a chance here.

I think 3 Reflectivity (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is one of the better bets on the card. Team Hawkes trained gelding who is yet to win first up but off his jumpouts, notably without blinkers (on raceday), he looks to be flying. Won the latest jumpout last Friday at Flemington when under a hold in front and won with something in hand. Think he leads these up and is hard to beat.

5 Morrissy (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is starting to get back to near his best. Had late market support when racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where Williams put him into the sweet spot on speed and from the home turn onwards, it was a painless watch if you were on. Harder here, but he’s found form and can continue on.

Fascinating runner is 1 Never No More (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS), trained by Simon Morrish. Had a couple of runs in the Autumn and I think safe to say they were just prep runs. Resumes with the Blinkers on first time and he has looked pretty good in a couple of jumpouts to get ready. Off his overseas form, he beats these. Just want to see what the market does.

See no reason to jump off 2 Mystery Shot (Bet Now: $3.60), a very much progressive three year old for Lindsey Smith that is 3/3 to start his career. Loved the way he toughed it out and finished best to win fresh at Ballarat before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where he was put into a lovely spot by Rodd and 400m out, it was race over and he won in a race where they ran good overall time. He can go on with it.

4 Wicklow Town (Bet Now: $9.50) still looks like he’s got a bit to learn but he’s got a decent engine under the hood. Has won three on end, the latest against the older horses at Geelong where he had to really knuckle down late to get the win but Olly lifted him the final couple of strides to get there. Eats up 1400m and I think can measure up.

Up to 1400m I see as a positive for the Peter Moody trained filly 10 Paris (Bet Now: $31.00). Was very good late at Sale two back over 1000m behind Flostar before going to 1200m here two weeks ago and was okay in a leader dominated race won by Felicia. Up to 1400m looks the go for this girl and if the track is playing more fairly, she can run a big race at odds.

Think this race sets up perfect for 3 Grand De Flora (Bet Now: $2.40). Regally bred filly for Danny O’Brien who has done little wrong since coming to Australia. Albeit in easier races over shorter trips, she has shown that she can be effective off a slow speed, a good speed, can sit near a slow/good speed and still finish off, so she’s pretty versatile. I can see Thought Of That coming across and giving this filly the perfect drag over. If that eventuates, think she wins.

7 Carnamah (Bet Now: $13.00) looks to have some good upside for Matt Cumani. Both career outings have come on the Synthetic at Ballarat, the second start seeing him win his maiden and despite doing a bit wrong in the straight, he was strong late. Hopefully gate one is used to advantage and overall, this race is thin.

5 Translator (Bet Now: $13.00) should be suited here. Ran in the Persan race from three weeks back at Flemington over 2000m where he was back near last in the run and was never really a factor in a total forgive and forget run behind the Maher/Eustace runner. He’s got the staying form to be around the mark here and can improve at odds.

Certain horses just specifically excel at certain trips and that applies with 9 Grey Shadow (Bet Now: $11.00). She saves her best for 1100m, notably the Caulfield 1100m, where she’s won four of her five attempts, with the lone failure being a close up fifth in the Alinghi behind From Within. Had a campaign in Brisbane. Arguably should have won the Hinkler over 1100m, then went to 1200m, was wide and couldn’t come on. She parks off the good speed here and I think will run a big race.

2 Viridine (Bet Now: $2.40) is a James Cummings trained sprinter that had a long run of outs prior to racing at Randwick three weeks ago where he got a beaut run off a good speed, getting the perfect set up to finish over the top and that he did with Bowman getting the best out of him late to score. Form out of it looks suspect, but he’s got class when right and again gets a fast tempo in front to finish off strong.

3 Ashlor (Bet Now: $12.00) is just so reliable. Dan McCarthy trains this ripper, who got a beaut run in transit four weeks ago at the Valley and duly saluted under a lovely ride from Tahlia Hope. He’s suited at WFA, at this level IMO, and he’ll put himself on speed and give his all, plus any hint in the track certainly won’t be an issue for him.

Class will carry 1 Sizzlefly (Bet Now: $4.00) a long way. Phillip Stokes trained filly that resumes, having not raced since the Euclase during the Adelaide Carnival when far from disgraced in defeat behind Xilong. 3/3 when produced fresh and she produced an outstanding jumpout win on the Pakenham Synthetic so really keen to see how she goes.

12 High Risk (Bet Now: $20.00) looks to have her share of talent for Sharyn Trolove. Debuted with an impressive win at Sale before going to what looked a tidy race at Sandown and loved the way she found the line behind Beatrix. That horse is around $10 while this girl is $25+, which seems crazy, so at the odds, definitely having something on.

9 Marine Belle (Bet Now: $23.00) was accepted for an easier race, but I like the fact the stable are tackling the Saturday race, perhaps a sign of confidence. 2/2 this time in. Showed good ticker to win first up at Echuca on wet ground before going to the Ballarat Synthetic where she led throughout in a good effort. Harder here, but hard to knock the way she’s returned.

Tricky race to close out the card, but the upside clearly lies with 11 Dogmatic (Bet Now: $5.50) and it was hard to miss his resumption over 1400m here two weeks ago. He was back on a day where those on speed were seriously advantaged. He was a real eye catcher, working home strongly behind Morrissy. Up to 1700m, can sit much closer in the run and prove hard to beat.

14 Triple Strip (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Patrick Payne trained mare who should be suited up to 1700m after racing over 1400m at Flemington three weeks ago and working home strongly in a heat of the Leilani Series behind Great Duchess. Up to 1700m does look a positive for her and loved the way she went in a Tatura jumpout on Monday.

5 France’s Boy (Bet Now: $9.00) has been doing some nice things in Adelaide for John Hickmott and I do find this interesting placement. He got a picnic in front last start at Morphettville on the Parks track and dashed away late to win well, beating not a great deal but still winning. Teo has the 2kg claim, so that helps, he lands on speed here and could give a sight at a price.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Reflectivity

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 The Felon

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 11 Dogmatic

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9

Leg Three: 1, 12

Leg Four: 5, 10, 11, 14

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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