11/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Kensington Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday for Kensington Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Kensington Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Kensington Stakes

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3 Kumicho (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) has race experience under the belt which should hold him in good stead. Debuted two weeks back in the Merson Cooper at Caulfield and while he was never really a winning threat, I didn’t mind his finale. If he handles the straight course, he’ll be around the mark.

5 Stupendo (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is a Danny O’Brien trained colt that is on debut. He’s had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one, both coming here, and each time he has caught the eye in good pieces of work. Draws out to get clear air from the outset and I think has to be respected.

1 Epic Centre (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) comes through what I think was a decent 2YO race on debut, which was the Magic Millions Classic at Ballarat where he was leading at a strong clip and though beaten off late, he stayed on soundly when third. Draws a good gate to showcase the speed, find the fence and give cheek.

2000m back to the mile is interesting with 5 Royal Order (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS), but he looks to be going really well for Mick Kent. Ran last Saturday at Pakenham over 2000m and tried his guts out, just missing out on the win behind The Awesome Son. Gets in really well after the claim and finds a winnable race.

7 Brasada (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is racing like he will be suited here for Team Corstens. Ran over the mile last time out and took an eternity to wind into his work but picked up and surged hard late to just miss out in a blanket finish. Whether he wants further now, not sure, but Olly sticks.

11 Mostly Sunny (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) lacks the class of some of these, but she’s a very honest mare who will put herself on speed and try hard, which was the case at The Valley last time out and fought gamely when a narrow second to Soaring Eagle, pipped on the peg. Williams gets on well with her and she’ll give herself every chance.

12 Chosen Blonde (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) has returned in super order for Chris Bieg. Both runs this time in have come over 1000m on the Parks track at Morphettville, giving them a spanking fresh. Last time out sat wide throughout and that early burn just told late. J Kah on, draws out to get clear air and cover, she’ll take beating.

2 Modear (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but she is talented when right and does like racing down the straight. Hasn’t raced since September 25 at Sandown when far from disgraced behind a Stakes class mare, Esta La Roca. Liked a recent jumpout and gets in well after the claim.

10 Garvoc (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited back to 1100m. They’ve tested her as a 1200m/1300m horse but her best figures have come over the short course so 1100m here I think is ideal. Ran in the Duchess Of Dorset race from three weeks back at Ballarat and I thought she closed off pretty well, helped by the slow tempo. Hard to beat back in trip.

2 Saracen Knight (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) looks ready to win now for Danny O’Brien. Good two back at Flemington behind Alcyone. Then went to Ballarat and was warming to the task late behind Silent Sovereign/Just Benjamin in a good effort. Hard fit now and up to 2500m, he appeals.

5 Seawhatyouthink (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is racing really well at the moment for Beetroot Williams. Unlucky two back in the Ararat Cup before going to Ballarat where he got a fair way out of his ground but picked up and was strong late, just missing out on the win. He’s flying, deserves a metro win and gets a great chance here.

4 Canford (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is racing really well for Ryan Balfour without winning. Ran at Morphettville two weeks back where he got a fair way out of his ground but was good late when third to Wertheimer. Overall, this isn’t a strong 78 and he is a horse that will have no trouble with a true 2500m.

3 Guardian Spirit (Bet Now: $4.80) for me. Team Freedman trains this Godolphin three year old, who is looking to make it three on the bounce, both wins coming over 1200m at Sandown and each time he has attacked the line of a horse wanting further, which he gets here. Hard to beat.

2 Sunfall (Bet Now: $20.00) looks to have returned in good order. Resumed three weeks ago in the Stockade at Ballarat where the race shape was clearly against him but loved the way he found the line late when fourth to Decent Raine. Tempo should be more genuine and fitter, he’ll take beating.

6 Butter Blonde (Bet Now: $9.50) looks better suited here. Has been thrown in the deep end in both runs this time in and has been far from disgraced I think. A length away on Oaks Day at Flemington. Then went to Ballarat and did a bit too much work on speed. Back to benchmark grade and up in trip, she commands respect.

Just how good is 2 Lighthouse? (Bet Now: $2.35) 2/2 to start her Australian career after formerly racing in the States. Electric change up speed saw her bolt up at Ballarat and the form has been franked by Frankie Pinot. Creeping up in the relative weights but hard to knock the way she’s going about it.

4 Bermadez (Bet Now: $4.00) is a key threat for me. He was down to run on Ballarat Cup Day but was scratched and comes here with fresh legs. Hasn’t raced since Oaks Day at Flemington when a strong and impressive winner of the Country Final. He seems to race best on the fresh side, so keen to see how he goes.

Interesting that 7 Extreme Thrill (Bet Now: $20.00) comes here instead of racing in SA. But, how often do we see horses from there measure up in Melbourne? He comes through a red hot Stakes race at Morphettville won by Outlaws Revenge, red hot in the sense they smashed the clock. Like him back up in trip, gets the claim…must for exotics.

2 Sartorial Splendor (Bet Now: $8.50) is a speed demon for John Sadler that resumes. This stable is starting to find some positive form and this horse loves the short course racing, especially at this track. The last bit will test given he is first up in a strong race, but he’ll look the winner for a fair chunk.

1 Halvorsen (Bet Now: $6.00) has found winning form…can he go on with it now? Stunned most with his win on Oaks Day at Flemington. He does love the straight track, but he hadn’t fired a shot in a while, so it was surprising to see him get the job done. Now he has found a win, can he repeat the dose?

9 Shamino (Bet Now: $27.00) is in with a shout here. Resumed in the Doveton where he was there to loom to be a threat but condition just ran out late. He’ll take good improvement from that and is a proven performer at this level so I think he can be dangerous if he’s within range 400m out.

12 Five Kingdom (Bet Now: $11.00) hasn’t won for a while for Matty Dale but he’s flying. Went keen in the front at Kembla three weeks back and was entitled to drop away but he kept kicking and finding under pressure, but just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow third to The Guru. Bursting to win and he gets his chance.

3 Sign Of Ussuri (Bet Now: $8.00) is three weeks between runs for the McEvoy camp since a very game effort at Ballarat over 2000m in what was a hot run race. He was there to win but just couldn’t quite finish it off in a driving go. Back to 1800m is a big tick. Just depends what is left in the tank.

5 El Misk (Bet Now: $51.00) is a former UK galloper that has only had one run down under for Archie Alexander, which came at Sandown in early September over 1800m where he was okay late despite never really being a winning threat behind Bea Tempted. Might want a run or two but his form from overseas is certainly good enough.

13 Kentucky Casanova (Bet Now: $4.20) in the get out. Michael Huglin trained gelding that gave them a spanking fresh at Sandown. Sat on speed throughout and what was impressive is that when the race was there to be won, he changed gears and blitzed them in an impressive return. Confident he measures up here.

2 Proper Rogue (Bet Now: $13.00) tends to race best with fresh legs so three weeks between runs here should be fine. He tried hard at Ballarat and stuck to the task well, but was clearly no match for Marabi, who spanked the field. Second horse was Savannah Cloud, who won last Friday night at the Valley so it all points to Proper Rogue running well here.

Third up from a break, 19 La Bella Costa (Bet Now: $26.00) should just about be at peak fitness. Good return fresh at Flemington behind It’sourtime. Then went to Ballarat and the race shape was against her I thought behind Duchess Of Dorset. Third up, she should be hard fit and can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Guardian Spirit

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 4 Bermadez

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 Five Kingdom

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 9, 11

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 12

Leg Four: 1, 2, 13, 19

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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