11/11/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Champions Stakes day

Cup Week at Flemington wraps up this Saturday where it is Champions Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Excelleration (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning in the opener. Richard Cully trained gelding that comes here first up, having not raced since Feb 2 when placing in the Colac Cup over 2000m behind Aurora’s Symphony. He is a gun fresh horse who has trialled/jumped out well leading in and first up at the mile looks a lovely set up for him in a race that does lack overall depth.

7 Sequestered (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. She was a short priced favourite a few weeks ago over the mile at Randwick where she got a beaut run in transit and on the turn, she looked the winner when presented, but as soon as you had that thought, she flattened out and was a bit on the plain side behind Pervade. Think a more genuine tempo here will suit and off prior efforts, she’ll take beating here.

2 Japanese Emperor (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs for Michael Moroney since racing over 1400m at Caulfield where he was off the speed throughout and was never really a threat but kept finding the line in a solid effort behind Jennilala. He is racing like a mile to 1600m suits, he has home track advantage and gets D Oliver sticking.

7 Vespertine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a proven straight track performer and I think with a fast tempo on the cards, I think she’ll get her chance to launch late and finish over the top. She resumed three weeks ago at Caulfield over 1100m and was a real eye catcher late when warming to the task on/through the line behind Lempicka. They’ll go hard in front here with Najem Suhail so she’ll be sitting back and launching late.

2 it’sourtime (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Danny O’Brien after racing last Saturday in the Rising Fast where he kept finding the line from off the speed, just missing out on the win when a narrow fourth to Spacewalk. He does save his best for the straight six so with that in mind, I do think he commands respect.

11 Our Last Cash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is 2/2 down the straight and I think Donna Scott has him flying. He comes through The Kosciuszko at Randwick where he was back near last in the run and I thought in a leader dominated race, his run was very good behind Front Page. Back to the Flemington straight…a win wouldn’t shock at all.

6 Schwarz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a colt who I originally thought was suspect after the debut but after last start, I think I am a believer. He had no right to get as close as he did in the Red Anchor given how he bombed the start but he kept finding the line in a really good effort behind Archo Nacho. He looks a big bloke that will keep winding up so 1400m is ideal and if there is petrol in the tank, he’ll take beating.

3 Pantelone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the only threat on paper. He has been a model of consistency this time in, his latest run on Geelong Cup Day where he sat outside Boldinho and tried his guts out to wear that horse down, but it had too good of a time in front and found plenty to fend them off. 1400m is a query, but he has a touch of quality about him and gets J Kah to steer.

14 Loose On Gin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a winning chance. He comes through the Red Anchor from two weeks back at The Valley where he wasn’t really suited by the tight track I thought so forgive and forget the run behind Archo Nacho. Bred to eat up 1400m and I do think getting onto the bigger track will help his cause. Don’t dismiss him.

11 So Dazzling (Bet Now:  $SP.00) wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Melbourne Cup IMO so running here, gee she looks hard to beat. Yes, she did no work and had the featherweight in the Moonee Valley Cup, but she still was a touch unlucky and only got warm late in a very good effort. She will love getting to 2600m at Flemington and with enormous upside to come, she rates highly.

5 Amade (Bet Now:  $SP.00) took an eternity to win a race and that win came last time in the Geelong Cup where he got a 12/10 from Zac Spain, getting the suck run in behind before driving through a narrow gap and finished best to score. Can he go on with it? Only time will tell, but he does look well placed at this level compared to the Melbourne Cup.

Very interesting runner here is 10 Third Realm (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is having his second prep in Australia. He didn’t do a bad job in the Autumn, and was far from disgraced in the Bart Cummings. His trial/jumpout work in the early part of the Spring was poor and he hasn’t been seen since so that is why you are getting the big price, but I reckon his best UK form is clearly good enough.

5 Thalassophile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win. Chris Waller trained mare that comes through the Tesio two weeks ago at The Valley where she was badly held up at a crucial stage and IMO, if she had clear air, she should have won instead of a second to the very much in form mare Wishlor Lass. Racing like a rise to 2000m is ideal and Waller horse in a Grand Final = good recipe.

13 Osmose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another with upside/timing. GaiBott mare that ran in the Tesio where she was forced quite wide on the turn but she balanced up in the straight and kept finding the line in a pretty solid effort behind Wishlor Lass. Off that effort, 2000m should be ideal and stable is going super. One of the leading contenders.

2 Amokura (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit hard at the weights given she is a Group l winner but she does have class/quality. She resumed at Randwick in The Angst where she got back near last in the run and while she was never a threat, she did make ground and was far from disgraced behind Renaissance Woman. Fitter and up to 2000m, she’ll be strong at the end.

7 In Secret (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one for me. Can make a case to say she should have gone close to winning The Everest. She just got a bit too far back in the run but I really liked the way she found the line late behind Think About It. She is the best straight track horse in Australia and returning here, peak fitness, I am keen on her to knock off the star Kiwi mare.

8 Imperatriz (Bet Now: $5.00 SPECIAL ODDS to win by a head or more!) is a star and is clearly hard to beat but this is her test to see how good she really is. She spanked them in the Manikato and yes, she beat nothing relative to what she faces here, but she still made a mess of them and was quite arrogant. The unknown is the straight track, but in terms of runs on the board this Spring, she is clearly the #1 seed.

1 Front Page (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripper for Matty Dale and he’ll give a sight on speed I am sure. He has been freshened up since The Kosciuszko where he made it two wins straight in that race, leading throughout and he gave them an absolute spanking. Dry track specialist, proven down the straight…does he win? No, but can pinch a first four spot.

6 Fangirl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a star mare and I think back to Flemington, she can explode. She ran in the Cox Plate and I think you can make a case to say she should have gone close to winning but she got back, held up and got very warm nearer the inside late to be right on the heels of the leaders. She is a big track, 1600m beast, so she gets conditions to suit even with Pride Of Jenni in the field.

1 Mr Brightside (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is such a beauty. Best miler in Australia who stretched out to 2040m in the Cox Plate and he looked the winner on the line, but the photo went the way of Romantic Warrior in a ripping finish. He is the best miler we have and should he win here, run well anyway, he’s on the plane to Hong Kong. Only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

7 Pride Of Jenni (Bet Now:  $SP.00) becomes the fascinating runner given what she is likely going to do. Something similar to the Empire Rose last Saturday where Declan Bates let her run in front and she pinched the Group l. There are better horses that are going to be chasing her here but she will give an almighty sight.

I have been hot on 11 Prowess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for this race for a couple of months and won’t be dropping off her. Maybe lucky to win the Crystal Mile but keep in mind she was only second up, first run in Australia for the prep, and she did parade with improvement to come, so the fact she won showed she has come back enormous and I reckon getting to the bigger track, 2000m, Zahra sticks…gee she is set up to run a beauty.

4 West Wind Blows (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been outstanding in Australia and clearly rates highly. Game effort in the Turnbull before going to the Caulfield Cup where he was given a 10/10 steer from Spencer. Unfortunately, Zahra gave Without A Fight a 12/10 steer. Back to 2000m looks ideal and he’s clearly hard to beat provide there is petrol left in the tank.

1 Zaaki (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will likely lead them up and we know he is a beast when he leads and gets control, like he has done to win this race the last two years. He was game as ever in the Cox Plate, sitting on speed and he just kept finding in a very good effort behind Romantic Warrior. I am sure he’s going to look the winner for a long way.

9 Kin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me. James Cummings trained mare that resumes, having not raced since July 22 when racing over 1100m at Caulfield where she got off the speed and kept finding the line in a pretty good effort behind Cute As, beaten 1.4L. She likes the straight course, she sprints well fresh and I thought her recent Warwick Farm trial was a lovely piece of work. She’ll sit off the speed but be strong at the end.

10 Rey Magnero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a five start career for Griffiths/De Kock and rates highly. He ran on Sale Cup Day where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, spanking them after giving them a start. He has run well down the straight before and if the inside gate is okay, he’s clearly hard to beat.

1 Zac De Boss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good straight track horse so returning here, I think he’s dangerous. He ran on Geelong Cup Day when on speed throughout and tried his guts out but just didn’t have the finale to go with them late in the piece behind Lafargue. Back to where he races best, and I think with a more patient steer, he’ll be far more effective.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 11 Prowess

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 7 In Secret

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 11 So Dazzling

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7

Leg Three: 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10

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