11/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne, Cranbourne Cup day

The two day Cranbourne Cup Carnival concludes on Sunday, where the feature race is the Cranbourne Cup (2025m), a $400,000 Listed event . The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Cranbourne Cup 🏆: View the Field for the Cranbourne Cup

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If 1 Pioneer River (Bet Now: $4.20) is going to be a horse seen during Cup Week, he has to be putting this field away. Hayes/Dabernig colt that has been pretty good in a couple of runs back from a spell, the latest over 1200m at the Valley when asked to chase from a fair way out but was sound late when third to Chipsaredown. Hard fit now, up to 1400m, he looks the one to beat.

3 Mr Pickwick (Bet Now: $11.00) looks to have his share of talent for Patrick Payne. Debuted on a heavy track a few weeks ago at Hamilton and despite doing work in the run, he drew clear late to win well. Don’t think he beat a great deal, but is in the right stable to progress through the grades and finds a winnable race here.

7 Captain Spud (Bet Now: $3.80) is a very interesting runner here. Peter Gelagotis trained three year old that has been hard in the market both times, and while he has been beaten each run, he’s been far from disgraced and the form out of both races has been good. Stable finds Bowman to steer and does draw a soft gate.

8 Not For Izzy (Bet Now: $4.20) looks wound up to win. First up on Cup Day on the home track, family affair with the Williams clan involved…looks a real target race. Son of Love Conquers All that was close up in a few runs when last in work, but his recent jumpout win here over 1200m was very impressive, dashing clear late under light riding. He’s ready to go.

4 Frankie Blue Eyes (Bet Now: $3.50) is a Busuttin/Young trained gelding that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since March 13 when racing at Kyneton over 1875m and running well without threatening when fourth. Liked the way he has jumped out and much like Not For Izzy, first up on the home track on Cup Day, suspect he’s forward enough, and Bowman steers.

2 Dr Schultz (Bet Now: $17.00) gets a look here at likely decent odds. The Maher/Eustace camp wouldn’t persevere with him unless he was showing something at home because his raceday form to date has been pretty poor, but the market did say first up he was legless and he ran accordingly, so Blinkers off here, I’ll give him a look.

4 Excelman (Bet Now: $1.75) is the one that probably has the brilliance factor to win this so I’m going his way, but is a query at the trip given he looked to have every chance at Cranbourne last time out but was beaten fair and square by Criminal, who was terrible last Friday night but with excuses. Excelman did race for about 1400m last Friday night out but the race was called off due to the fall, so he’s hard fit and this is a very winnable race.

10 Wahine Toa (Bet Now: $8.00) is the only other winning chance IMO. Maher/Eustace trained mare that resumed over 1700m at Geelong and originally was left flat footed when the sprint went on, but picked herself up and she was good late when fifth to Serengeti in a race where the form out of it has been solid. The step up in trip is ideal and the overall depth isn’t strong.

The best version of 6 Viscosity (Bet Now: $4.50) is capable, but it’s been a little while since he has showed that. Been kept on the fresh side for this, being four weeks between runs since finishing down the track at this track/distance behind West Wind. Gets a soft gate to use, Bowman is booked and Blinkers on first time.

Think the first up/debut contingent come to the fore here. 1 Amalfi Star (Bet Now: $16.00) gets the nod though. He’s a son of Star Witness that resumes. Hasn’t raced since Jan 9 at Stony Creek when a notable drifter in betting and ran accordingly, beating two home in a field of six, beaten five lengths. Been gelded, recent jumpout behind the speed was very good and stable gets Olly to steer.

11 Keep Ya Distance (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to have his share of talent. Son of Reliable Man on debut for the Ellerton/Zahra camp that has had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one, the latest seeing him lead and he wasn’t knocked about on speed, bloused late by the well performed Excelida. Keen to see how he goes.

The Keys stable should always be respected on Cranbourne Cup Day and they have 12 Tobytoff (Bet Now: $5.50) having start one. He jumped out here over 800m recently and I thought went very nicely under Froggy, who rides here. He was near the speed throughout and when squeezed, the response was instant. Interesting to see what the market does.

6 Scottish Dancer (Bet Now: $2.30) looks the most progressive of this lot and I think he can get away with it despite drawing wide. He resumed over 1400m at the midweeks at Flemington when wide throughout but Dee looked to have him going quite well. He blended into the race and surged hard late, but just missed out on the win when a close up fourth to Chaillot. He’ll come right on from that and is hard to beat.

7 Kipketer (Bet Now: $9.00) is racing so well at the moment for the John McArdle camp. He comes here in winning form after a strong performance to win over the mile at Benalla last time out, getting the suck run in behind before angling clear and in a driving go, finished best. Already a couple of winners have come out of that race, so he’s very likeable here at the price.

9 Unfair Dismissal (Bet Now: $9.00) is a knockout chance here. He comes through the Chaillot race at Flemington mentioned above where he was wide no cover for the trip and battled away really well in defeat, beaten around 2.3L. Callow takes over and I dare say they’ll roll the dice from the wide gate and roll forward. Will give a sight.

7 Ancestry (Bet Now: $2.05) has brilliant sustained speed and I think that can come to the fore and win this. Resumed over 1200m at Caulfield where she led them a merry dance from the front and the time she ran was very good relative to the class. 1000m looks ideal and drawn well, Poy can press forward, find the front and run them into the ground.

3 Parsifal (Bet Now: $6.00) is a key threat. Will Clarken trained gelding that had jumped out well prior to resuming over 1000m on the Parks track two weeks ago where I thought he was a little unlucky not to fight the finish out. Got held up at a vital stage when wanting to build the revs, eventually finishing third to Star Hills. Fitter, Jamie Kah rides him well, he’s really likeable.

2 Vainstream (Bet Now: $8.00) has class and that will carry him a long way here. Hasn’t raced since winning the VOBIS Gold Sprint at Caulfield in the Autumn, beating home a quality field which included multiple Stakes winners, so that form clearly reads well for this, and with a strong tempo in front, he’ll be charging at the end.

I’m going to give 3 Groundswell (Bet Now: $4.20) one last look before it’s well and truly a life ban. Was keen on his chances when he resumed over 1200m at Caulfield and after the race, I thought he was pretty plain, but in hindsight, he was first up and the tempo was red hot, so he was gassed. Like he has been given extra time to recover from that and this is a really winnable race for a horse of his class.

9 I Am Eloquent (Bet Now: $3.60) is suited in a race like this for the Busuttin/Young camp. Resumed in the How Now at Caulfield where she was near the speed throughout and battled away quite well in defeat I thought behind Felicia despite being beaten 4.65L. She drops a fair bit in class/depth and stable gets Bowman to steer.

16 Nerone (Bet Now: $9.00) is third up here from a spell and the James Cummings trained four year old should be close to peak fitness. Needed the run fresh at Warwick Farm behind Bartley before going to Flemington when doing work from the gate to land near the speed and he fought on gamely when a close up fifth to Chaillot. If he can get near the front without doing too much work, he’ll take some beating.

Each way at $15+, I think you’ll get a really good run for your money with 1 Trap For Fools (Bet Now: $17.00), who has these on toast re class. Resumed in the Group l Underwood where he made them work hard from the front with around 700m to go and he stayed on quite well in defeat behind Russian Camelot. Think he’ll find the front and run a big race.

The form guide will say that 12 Polly Grey (Bet Now: $6.50) is going just okay, but believe me, she’s flying. Problem for her is that she has bumped into in form horses her past couple, namely Al Galayel and Orderofthegarter. She deserves a win, a Stakes win, for her efforts this time in. Does it come here? Time will tell.

4 Inverloch (Bet Now: $13.00) is another that is value. He was huge first up in a fast run race at Flemington won by Travimyfriend before going to the 1700m at Caulfield in the same race Nonconformist contested and forget he went around given he pulled up lame. He’s on his home track and off the resumption, he’s right in this.

Surely…surely luck will be on the side of 2 Cordilla (Bet Now: $1.90). She should be 2/2 this time in but has just had no luck in both runs, each time getting badly held up when appearing to be bolting under Olly. He remains on the mare and drawn out, she should get clear air from the outset, and if she brings what she looks like she has under the hood, she’s too good for these.

6 Zousonic (Bet Now: $4.20) looks the only real threat to Cordilla. Ellerton/Zahra trained mare that was an impressive first up winner at Bendigo before going to Caulfield where she got back in the run and never really got into the race behind Fabric. The way the barriers have landed, can see Zousonic tagging Cordilla and getting last look.

5 Lady Loft (Bet Now: $7.50) has been in work a fair while for the Julius Sandhu team but she continues to race so honestly, and for the first time in a couple of runs, she is placed to win. Last couple of runs have come in strong Mares races in town, the latest being the Blazer when beaten 2.75L by Pretty Brazen. She is the value runner for sure.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Cordilla

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Excelman

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Trap For Fools

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 7, 11

Leg Two: 3, 9, 14, 16

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 12

Leg Four: 2, 6

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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