11/1/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Chester Manifold Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday, where it is Chester Manifold Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Chest Manifold 🏆: View the Field for the Chester Manifold Stakes

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Pretty keen on 8 Hungry Heart (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) for Chris Waller. Daughter of Frankel that is on debut, having trialled just the once, which came last Monday where she was tucked in behind the speed before getting an inside split and she went through her gears under a hold to win the trial in solid time with plenty up the sleeve. Keen to see how she goes first up.

2 Jabali Ridge (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) looks a talented filly for the Price/Kent stable that debuted down the straight here back on December 14 where she loomed to beat Conceited, and in fact headed that colt, but he kicked on strongly and was just too good. She has the race experience under the belt and provided the inside is okay, she’s one of the hardest to beat.

7 Yulong Progress (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team and I’ve liked the way he has jumped out leading in. Looks a real professional. When asked to relax, he does, and when asked for an effort, the turn of foot is there. Regan Bayliss is back from Honkers and he gets a great chance to get an early win on the board.

2 Rubisaki (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS) looks beautifully placed here by Patrick Payne. Resumed over 1200m at the Valley and just loved the way she savaged the line off a fast speed, aided by a peach from Jye McNeil. Like her up to 1400m despite the break between runs and she does have class on her side, which will carry her a long way.

1 Alburq (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) up to 1400m should be suited. Ran well first up behind Rubisaki in that race mentioned above before racing down the straight here and despite some difficulties around 300m out, he found when asked and surged hard late to snare the win. Not sure he beats Rubisaki, but is suited up to 1400m and looks the key, perhaps only threat.

5 Antagoniser (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a Mark Kavanough trained colt that resumed down the straight here and just lacked the change up speed to go with them when pressure was applied, but was good late behind Alburq. Much better suited on a bending track and up to 1400m. Form from last prep reads pretty well, so giving him a chance here.

2 That Girl (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a Phillip Stokes trained filly that was gallant in defeat first up at Pakenham behind Star Surprise before racing down the street here where she looked home when asked for the big effort, only to be bloused near the peg by Alburq. Third up now, should be hard fit, and I like her back to 1100m against her own age/sex.

The Peter Chow team is flying at the moment and I wan to give 11 Paul’s Regret (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) another chance. Gave them a spanking to win first up over 1200m at the Valley before racing at that same track/distance two weeks ago when copping heat on speed and tiring late behind It’s King Of Magic. Back to her own age/sex, back to 1100m, she can bounce back.

10 Modear (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Helmet for Patrick Payne that had support at odds when resuming at Echuca, but gee I liked the change up speed she produced when asked for an effort by Billy Egan and she put them away to win impressively. Off that, would love to see her at 1200m, but no doubt she’ll be strong at the end here.

Some good types are racing here, but I like the look of 5 Embrace Me (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS), a quality mare for Danny O’Brien that resumes. Not much really went her way during the Spring, but keep in mind she contested much stronger races than she resumes in here, and the 0/3 fresh record doesn’t read great, but last prep, was fourth to The Inevitable, fresh run prior was four wide throughout and the other was as a two year old. Jumped out at Werribee, without head gear, and looked very sharp, so keen to see how she goes.

If you were on 4 Wagner (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) two weeks back at the Valley, apologies for bringing up the nightmare again. Gate one, 1000m at the Valley…can be a recipe for disaster…Good lord. Disaster doesn’t even come close to describe what happened with Wagner. Hopefully gets clear air from the outset and let down like he did when winning first up.

The class runner here is 1 Ashlor (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) and if he’s right, he’ll go close. Dan McCarthy trains this quality sprinter, who hasn’t raced since finishing down the track in the Manikato behind Loving Gaby where the form out of the race has been strong. Ashlor did too much work on speed and tired in the latter stages. Was due to go to Perth for the Winterbottom but had a set back. If he’s right, he goes close, and a recent Bendigo jumpout win indicates he’s back on track.

The map looks somewhat kind to 2 River Jewel (Bet Now: $6.50) so leaning her way, just, to turn the tables on Neighbourhood from their clash at Caulfield on Boxing Day where the latter mare was impressive in winning but I liked the way River Jewel toughed it out despite being beaten. Lands near the speed again and back on her home track, she’s hard to beat.

1 Neighbourhood (Bet Now: $3.90) is a really good mare for the Enver Jusufovic yard, which is one of the form stables across Australia at the moment. This mare has won all three runs this prep, the latest coming over 1400m at Caulfield on Boxing Day when never looking the winner until the final few strides when surging hard late under Williams. Flemington 1400m should suit her better. Hard to beat.

To the eye, it was a big win from 6 Zargos (Bet Now: $5.50) at Bendigo first up and to be fair, it was brilliant, but with reservations. The depth there is nowhere near as strong as what she faces here and she was in the A1 ground for the day. Still, she was first up and did parade like she would improve with the run under the belt, so that holds her in good stead for this.

2 Future Score (Bet Now: $3.10) looks one of several I’m keen on at this meeting. Matt Cumani has this bloke in ripping form at the moment. Surprised many with his first up win at Pakenham before going to Caulfield and the Lord Stakes where he beat all bar Odeon in a run that was full of merit. Up to 2000m, he stalks the stablemate and convinced he’ll be stronger late.

Hard to knock a winner and that is what 6 Ryan’s Fender (Bet Now: $3.70) is, but just feel there is that little bit more depth this time around. Got the job done at the Valley two weeks ago, but was pushed at on the turn but held them comfortably to score. Didn’t beat much, and harder here, but looks the leader and remains well in at the weights.

5 Rock On (Bet Now: $12.00) is third up here and should be getting close to peak fitness. Was okay late fresh at Pakenham behind Future Score before going to the Yarra Valley Cup where I’m not sure he was 100% happy on the tight track but balanced up in the straight and closed off well. May want further than this, but does get a little weight pull on Future Score from Pakenham.

There’s upside to come with 3 Firsthand (Bet Now: $3.80) and I think he can get a win on the board for the prep. Definite pass mark first up at Randwick behind Signore Fox before racing at this track/distance on New Years Day where he paraded like he needed one more run and that’s how it panned out behind Yulong January. Hard fit now and has more upside than most.

5 Bumper Blast (Bet Now: $2.35) is a son of Ocean Park for Rob Hickmott that faces his toughest test to date in terms of grade, but to be fair, this is a very winnable Stakes race. Lovely ride from Olly saw him win over this track/distance three weeks ago, surging hard late and Olly lifting him over the line to score. Down in the weights still, with winning form next to the name, he’s likeable.

4 Insensata (Bet Now: $12.00) is a sneaky chance here. Reckon Jason Coyle has her going well and she can easily take this out without surprising. Loved her resumption behind Seasons before going to the Christmas Classic where she didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight behind Madam Rouge. Up to 1400m and back in depth, she’s likeable at odds.

I had put the pen through her after last run, but with the significant weight relief, I’m giving 8 Sure Knee (Bet Now: $3.10) one last chance, and if she can’t perform well here, it’s well and truly life ban territory. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and looked to have every chance when fifth, but the winner Aktau looks above average. Down in the weights, she gets one more chance.

3 Odeon (Bet Now: $2.60) had been tagged as a non winner after turning it up at Pakenham but things fell into place beautifully at Caulfield in the Lord Stakes and he was really impressive in winning. Back at home, at the mile, he looks really well placed and is one of th hardest to beat. Can he repeat the dose? Only time will tell.

1 Rising Red (Bet Now: $19.00) is three weeks between runs for the Busuttin/Young team since resuming over 1400m at Flemington and just looked in need of the run behind the in form Yulong January. 2000m+ is when he will come into his own and with more fitness, so not sure I’d be backing him to win, but include in wider multiples.

15 Pinyin (Bet Now: $3.30) looks one of the better bets on the card. Loved her resumption at Sandown behind Beaverbrook before having a mini break and racing at Caulfield on Boxing Day where she should have won but had no luck in the straight when just failing to get News Girl. Lone run down the Flemington straight saw her finish two lengths off Sylvia’s Mother, My Pendant and co. That reads well for this.

5 Beauty (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Team McEvoy trained mare that had lost her way somewhat after her early 3YO days, which saw her as a Stakes winner. Resumed over 1100m at Caulfield on Boxing Day where she was good in defeat when second to Ginger Jones after getting slightly held up early on in the straight. That indicates she might be back on track and finds a winnable race.

Drawing wide and perhaps having last look is a good set up for the Will Clarken mare 12 Be My Star (Bet Now: $8.00). Perhaps just settled that touch too close in the run last time at the Valley, through no fault of Kah. The barrier meant that’s where she landed. She is best when ridden cold and launching late, which is the pattern she gets to use here.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 15 Pinyin

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Future Score

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Embrace Me

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 15

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