Flemington will host Saturday’s feature Victorian meeting and it is jam packed with quality despite the spotlight being on South Australia and Queensland with group 1’s being run in both of those states. There looks to be good value throughout the card and the Spotless Plate looks to be the highlight with Black Caviar’s relation Belle Couture running.
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Race One (12:35) : Taj Rossi Series Heat 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Picking Time (Best Odds: $4.00) was heavily backed on debut in what was a decent two year old race at Morphettville. She hit the line strongly on that occasion and she will improve from the run and this looks to be a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Where It Began (Best Odds: $9.00) is a well bred filly trained by Peter Moody, she is yet to trial or race but based on breeding and the strong stable you have to keep her safe in this race.
Roughie: Red Casino (Best Odds: $34.00) has had four career starts in which he has won once and placed once. He was strong in defeat at Warrnambool last start which is usually a decent form race for 2yo despite being run midweek at a country meeting. Currently at big odds and i think he must be included at the price.
$400 Picking Time Free Bet
Race Two (13:10) : Reduce Reuse Recycle Hcp (84) 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Baluch (Best Odds: $12.00) has been disappointing of late but i am happy to give her one last chance on Saturday where she steps up to the right distance and she is in a winnable class of race against her own sex. She gets into the weights well and there should be ample speed for her to settle back from the wide barrier and will be able to utilise the long straight at Flemington to run over the top of them.
Big Danger: Special Miss was impressive in winning by a big margin at Kilmore last time out. She was accepted for a much tougher race at Morphettville today but was subsequently scratched for an easier race at Flemington so she has to be respected and looks tough to beat.
Roughie: Azzaden (Best Odds: $13.00) won well on debut and hasn’t been too bad at her last two starts against good opposition. She is lightly raced so she will improve from those runs and she faces a field that doesn’t boast the best winning strike rates and i think she is a big chance at double figure odds in this company.
$400 Baluch Free Bet
Race Three (13:45) : Spotless Plate (78) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Belle Couture (Best Odds: $5.00) was super impressive last start at Caulfield after disappointing on debut. She looks to be a filly who will continue to get better and better with each runner and i think with the improvement from her last start she will be winning again against a quality field.
Big Danger: Nicamorae (Best Odds: $5.00) has won both her starts this preparation and both in very impressive style. She jumped out of the ground last start over the 1000m and looked as if the step up in distance will suit her. She looks the biggest danger to our on top selection and they look like the will be fighting out the finish on last start performances.
Roughie: Good Music (Best Odds: $26.00) has a very good record and she has been solid at every one of her four career starts so i was surprised at the odds she opened at. She will be dropping in distance which isn’t ideal but she will certainly be rock hard fit and will get a good run from the barrier.
$400 Belle Couture Free Bet
Race Four (14:22) : Cleanevent Hcp 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Backstedt (Best Odds: $4.60) over raced last start and was entitled to full away late. He finds another winnable race here and if he can settle this time which i think he will i think he will have the class advantage over the rest of the field and be too good.
Big Danger: Garud (Best Odds: $9.50) is on his ninth life with me. He continues to disappoint despite knowing he has a ton of ability. This is an easier race for him and i think he could bounce back on Saturday.
Roughie: Voila Ici (Best Odds: $21.00) isn’t the horse that he use to be but at the odds and looking at his first up record he should be included. He faces an easier task here and could bounce back to winning form.
$400 Backstedt Free Bet
Race Five (14:57) : Secondbite Fresh Food Rescue 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: By The Grace (Best Odds: $9.00) has had excuses for his two defeats this preparation and he looks very well placed on Saturday where he has drawn a good barrier and drops in weight. He was very good last preparation in decent races and at the weights i think he can win this race on Saturday.
Big Danger: Written Up (Best Odds: $7.50) has been very good this preparation and hasn’t done anything to suggest he shouldn’t be included again on Saturday. His win at Warrnambool was very good and that was on the back of a good win in the Bendigo Guineas which is good form for a race like this. If he can carry the big weight he will be in the finish.
Roughie: Tankster has been good in his three runs this preparation and hasn;t been beaten far in any of them. He hit the line really well at Sandown last start so the increase in distance here should certainly suit and the wide barrier shouldn’t be an issue as he will be getting back and running on. The big Flemington straight should help and i am expecting a big run at big odds.
$400 By The Grace Free Bet
Race Six (15:32) : All Victorian Sprint Series Ht 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Lonhspresso (Best Odds: $3.50) is by far the class runner in this race and he first up record is very good despite not having a win. She has black type form all around her and against this class she should be far too good but will need a little luck with her running pattern of going back.
Big Danger: Decircles is a jump a run type of horse and with the scratchings in the race he should get an easier run in front. Lonhspresso is our best of the day but he will be going back in the run and if he finds a bit of trouble then he may be able to steal the race out in front.
Roughie: Such Hope was really good at Caulfield last start where he sat on the speed and stuck on well at the finish with the big weight in the race. He drops 5.5kg from that run which will certainly help his chances on Saturday and he looks to be at fantastic value in the race.
$400 Lonhspresso Free Bet
Race Seven (16:10) : Momentum Energy Smilepower Hcp 2800m Form Guide
Back Me: Unchain My Heart (Best Odds: $4.40) finished off very well last start at Flemington with the winner Gotta Take Care. The start before that he hit the line well over an unsuitable distance in a decent form race. That looks to be a good guide looking at this field and i think he will go one better this time out.
Big Danger: Shoreham (Best Odds: $7.50) at his best would be winning this but he has been a bit below par this preparation. Back on a likely improving surface i am happy to include him in what looks to be a very winnable race for him on Saturday.
Roughie: Jelly Baby (Best Odds: $41.00) continues to lose the race after jumping missing the jump at her last two starts. If she can get away with the field on Saturday i think she is weighted well and has enough ability to finish in the mix and at the huge odds she is one to add to multiples for some value.
$400 Unchain My Heart Free Bet
Race Eight (16:45) : Flemington Green Fields Hcp-96 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Henwood (Best Odds: $9.00) got a long way back at Sandown last start and hit the line well late. He will improve with the slight increase in distance as well as back at Flemington where he appreciates the long straight to wind up. There looks to be ample speed in the race to set it up for him and he looks hard to beat in this race at good each way odds.
Big Danger: Tried And Tired (Best Odds: $3.60) has won his last two starts and the form from those two races has stacked up since so he looks a big chance to make it a hat trick of wins on Saturday. He goes up slightly in weight and has drawn a widish barrier which looks to be the only negatives against his name.
Roughie: Lord Durante (Best Odds: $21.00) looks to be massive value in this race. Something went wrong last start so i am happy to put a line through that run and if you do he probably more than halves his odds in this race. He always puts in a solid run and i think that will continue on Saturday where he looks to be the best value runner in the race and has to be included.
$400 Henwood Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Six Number 4 Lonhspresso (Best Odds: $2.50)
Next Best: Race Seven Number 7 Unchain My Heart (Best Odds: $4.20)
Best Roughie: Race Two Number 7 Baluch (Best Odds: $6.50)
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