Racing continues at Eagle Farm this Saturday where it is the start of the State Of Origin Series between. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out 7.5 metres from the 1000m-400m; Out five metres
Race One (13:27) : Coke Zero Handicap (75) 2200m:
Back Me: 8 Shanakee (Bet Now: $3.00) looks one of the better bets on the program. She ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where she had a charmed run nearer the speed and when Jeff Lloyd pressed the button, it looked race over but she just failed to go on with it and had to settle for a narrow second to Rock On Ivy. I think if Lloyd is a stride or two more patient here, she’ll get the win here.
Big Danger: 10 Jimmy Hoffa (Bet Now: $12.00) produced a decent finish to win over 2200m at the Sunny Coast two back before going to the 2200m at Grafton last week where he never really looked like getting the win, but he surged the final 150m to get a narrow but tough win. He is the hard fit horse engaged here with the different form lines and though they look inferior, you have to respect winning form.
Long Shot: 9 The Grey Flash (Bet Now: $8.00) is on the seven day turnaround after racing over 1800m here last Saturday where she was off the bit well before the home turn and never really picked up until the final 75m where she eventually did and was pretty good to the line I thought. She’ll appreciate the rise in trip I suspect and overall, this isn’t a strong race, so it wouldn’t take much improvement for her to win.
Race Two (14:02) : Jim Beam Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: I am not sure what 5 Colosimo (Bet Now: $2.80) beat on debut at the Gold Coast a couple of weeks back, but to the eye, the win just wreaked of class and a horse who will be going places. It was a 900m dash and he was run off his legs early but once he balanced up, he just savaged the line and won by a space, and when you’re back in the run over 900m at that track, that’s hard to do. I’m giving him serious respect here.
Big Danger: 2 Mishani Bullitt (Bet Now: $3.60) was a solid debut third on October 8 at Doomben behind She’s Our Star before racing at the Sunny Coast last Wednesday where he sat back off them and chased hard all the way but couldn’t quite reel in the leader and a potential above average type in Sista Act. He is a colt who looks to have some upside and promise, and this isn’t the strongest two year old race overall.
Long Shot: 8 Serious Doubts (Bet Now: $7.00) was kept safe in betting when debuting at Doomben four weeks back where she showed good speed to be up near the front most of the way and gave a really good kick in the straight but just had no answers for Saxton Rock, who could well be a legitimate Magic Millions contender. She is a filly with upside and the bigger track should suit.
Race Three (14:37) : Makers Mark Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Order Again (Bet Now: $5.50) was very good in defeat here at the distance on Cup Day before dropping back to 1400m last Wednesday at the Sunny Coast where he started $1.50 and didn’t give his supporters a moment of concern, absolutely bolting in and winning by a space. He can measure up here for sure.
Big Danger: 3 Volpino (Bet Now: $6.00) has been a model of consistency this time in. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight back and despite getting a long way back in the run he finished off with real purpose to run second to Billy The Kid. He will love the step up to the mile and he will be strong late.
Long Shot: 7 Realing (Bet Now: $8.00) was very good on debut here on Cup Day behind impressive winner Billy The Kid before racing in a maiden at Doomben where he was heavily backed and despite taking his time to wind up, he finished hard to get the win. Stable is absolutely flying and he has upside and a touch of quality about him.
Race Four (15:17) : Cascade Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Beckoning Light (Bet Now: $4.80) is on the seven day turnaround after racing over 1500m here last Saturday where she sat off the speed and was held up a touch earlier on in the straight but eventually got clear and finished off strongly to run second to Man Of His Word. She’s hard fit and over 1400m at Eagle Farm with give in it, I think she will be the strongest to the line here. Keen on her.
Big Danger: 3 Better Land (Bet Now: $4.40) was enormous in defeat two back at Doomben behind Brotherly Secret before racing over this track/distance three weeks back where he had the charmed run behind the tempo and stuck to the task really well when a close up third to Big Decision. Form out of that race has been franked via Man Of His Word bolting up last weekend, which is a tick for Better Land, plus he’ll be hard fit now.
Long Shot: 6 Monster Of Energy (Bet Now: $8.50) had a two month freshen up prior to racing over 1200m here three weeks ago where he had a nice sit just off the speed and perhaps his condition just gave out late when seventh to Perfect Dare, beaten 1.4L. He does have a really good second up record as well as some excellent stats at Eagle Farm. Big improver here.
Race Five (15:53) : Coke Origin Jockey Series Plate (Class 3) 1600m:
Back Me: 15 Subsolar (Bet Now: $6.00) is a mare who needed a confident boost and she got that in spades when racing on her home track at the Gold Coast a tick over two weeks back where she raced over the mile and she just absolutely spanked them. She has performed well in town previously and now her confidence is up and about, she can go on with it.
Big Danger: 12 Madame De Ban (Bet Now: $6.50) ran over 1500m here a fortnight back in a similar race where she had the charmed run just off the speed and once she presented on the turn, she looked a massive thret but given she was second up off a break, her condition just gave way late. Third up now, so she should be ready fitness wise and rates highly.
Long Shot: 8 Game Pie (Bet Now: $15.00) is the intriguing runner. On ability and form, he has many lengths on these, but it’s just an unknown as to how well he is going. He ran over the mile at Warwick Farm last time out and he was a beaten horse on the turn when finishing down the track behind King Darci. If he brings his best, he’ll spank these. Just depends on what Game Pie will turn up.
Race Six (16:32) : Coke Origin Series Handicap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: 15 Bidii Babe (Bet Now: $6.00) has been given a five week freshen up since racing over the 1350m at Doomben where she sat off the speed in the run and just couldn’t quite quicken well enough with the 58.5kg when fifth to Daisy Duke. Gets really good weight relief here and she is absolutely lethal when produced fresh, plus she is unbeaten at Eagle Farm.
Big Danger: 11 Fiery Heights (Bet Now: $4.40) is a horse who has come back in super order this time in for Toby Edmonds. He ran over this track/distance three weeks back where he sat on a hot speed and despite being strongly challenged in the straight, he fought on like a tiger for a determined and impressive victory. Should be just about ready to peak now, draws well and gets really good weight relief.
Long Shot: Nothing wrong with the win of 10 Denarius (Bet Now: $9.00) at this track/distance last time out, saving ground nearer the inside and dashing through for quite a dominant win. Much more depth here but he has upside and that last start effort can’t be ignored.
Race Seven (17:12) : Peak Sports And Spine Centre Mode Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Suspenders (Bet Now: $6.50) clearly on top for me here. Quality filly for Gerald Ryan who strung together a couple of impressive wins, one of which against multiple city winners, before going to the Brian Crowley and making up ground late behind Spright, who came out and spanked them on Oaks Day. Loved her trial recently at Rosehill and she looks the one for me here.
Big Danger: 1 Candika (Bet Now: $12.00) is a classy filly that resumes for the O’Dea yard. She contested the main two year old races during the Winter, with the prep ending with an eighth in the JJ Atkins behind Sacred Elixir. No trials, but she flies fresh and there should be a hot speed in front of her here, so she’ll get her chance to run them down.
Long Shot: 14 Lipstick Lover (Bet Now: $26.00) ran at the midweeks at Doomben on October 26 where she sat off speed before Fradd eased her wide and she let down powerfully over the concluding stages to win impressively. This race appears to have more depth, but now that she has got the win under the belt, she could go right on with it. Knockout hope.
Race Eight (17:48) : Canadian Club Just Now Handicap 1300m:
Back Me: Really keen here on 4 Unequivocal (Bet Now: $10.00). She is a mare who is absolutely low flying at the moment for Noel Mayfield-Smith but just can’t quite crack it for a win. She ran over 1400m at Rosehill a fortnight back where she had a suck run behind the speed before eventually bursting through and just missing out on picking up Snoopy. Bred to lap up the wet track and is so well weighted.
Big Danger: 3 Ravi (Bet Now: $1.90) is the best mare in the race by some distance and the market reflects that. She hasn’t raced since Cup Day down the straight at Flemington when making up ground late behind stablemate Flippant. Been given a little break and loved her trial win last week. Obviously targeted for this event and she ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 2 Beatniks (Bet Now: $10.00), like several key runners here, come through the McAlpine a fortnight back and I thought her effort was very good in defeat behind Elegant Composure given she was first up and had to attempt to make her run nearer the inside, which probably wasn’t the A ground to be that afternoon. Not quite as dynamic second up, but she does have two placings next to her name and the extra 100 will suit her better than most engaged here.
Race Nine (18:19) : Mount Franklin Quality Quality 1500m:
Back Me: 12 Black Jet (Bet Now: $20.00) represents really good value for me at a huge price. Wasn’t too bad in his opening two runs this prep before racing over the mile here three weeks back where he got back in the run and closed off strongly late in the piece to be beaten just over two lengths by Top Tone. That form got a massive tick last week via the likes of All Clear and of course Saga Miss. He will love the weight drop here, and he should just about be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 8 Lordag (Bet Now: $7.00) comes through the Recognition a fortnight back where he was a real eye catcher. He got back to near last in the run and finished off very strongly late in the piece when sixth to Cylinder Beach, beaten just over two lengths. This looks a lovely target race for him, and if he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.
Long Shot: 1 Dances On Stars (Bet Now: $18.00) was disappointing when resuming at Hawkesbury behind Famous Seamus despite being heavily backed at odds. He then went to Rosehill and like most backmarkers that afternoon, he just had no hope behind tearaway winner Religify yet his effort was tidy. This horse does tend to race best in the Sunshine state, and being third up, he is another that is not far off peaking.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Unequivocal
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 8 Shanakee
VALUE: Race Nine Number 12 Black Jet
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 10, 11, 15, 16, 17
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 5.55% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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