A bumper card has been assembled for Morphettville this Saturday, where it is Hill Smith Stakes Day. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:42) : Akeed Mofeed @ Goldin Farms Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: Thin race. I’ll go with the horse with upside, which is Grumpy Guru (Best Odds: $7.00), who was only second up when making up ground late over 1400m on the Parks track behind Just For Starters a couple of weeks back. Lindop sticks, has more upside than most and this is a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Mullinger Lane (Best Odds: $2.50) ran third in that Just For Starters race mentioned above, and I thought he was quite good there I thought considering he did some work to sit on speed from the wide gate. Draws better now, Holder sticks and I think the mile will be ok.
Roughie: Kiaola (Best Odds: $8.00) comes back to the mile and back in class after racing at the Valley a couple of weeks back where he dropped out and finished down the track behind Jadeer, who goes around in the Spring Champion at Randwick as a contender. Yendall sticks and as I said, this field is thin depth wise.
Race Two (14:17) : Leukaemia Foundation Handicap (90) 2024m:
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Lucky Lucky Lucky (Best Odds: $4.40) and Temps Voleur. Leaning towards the former. He trialled well here prior to resuming at Caulfield where he made up good ground late to finish sixth to Kenjorwood, who will be a chance in the Toorak at Caulfield. Second up, fitter, drops big time in class and is so well in at the weights after the claim for in form apprentice Zac Spain.
Big Danger: Temps Voleur (Best Odds: $3.40) scored a strong on speed win over 1950m on the Parks track last time out, thanks to a lovely front running ride from Dom Tourneur. 2000m will be no issue and is only carrying 51kg, dropping 5kg from last start.
Roughie: Letmedowngently (Best Odds: $5.00) did far too much work last time out in the Coleraine Cup, sitting on speed in a fast run race yet she fought on quite well for a close up fourth. Blinkers come off, so hopefully she relaxes, and if she does, she is a knockout chance.
Race Three (14:52) : Southern Home Improvements Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: It was hard not to be impressed by the win of Schism (Best Odds: $8.50) on Gawler Cup Day, where he got well back in the run before getting clear and just savaged the line for a real eye catching performance. No worries about the step up to city grade, Jones sticks and there does appear to be good speed engaged here.
Big Danger: Jose Wales (Best Odds: $2.80) was heavily backed when resuming at Ballarat, and he didn’t let his supporters down with a dominant on speed win, winning by a space and running time. Yendall has a full book of rides, but I’d suspect this is the ride he is looking forward to the most.
Roughie: Brooklyn (Best Odds: $12.00) just looked to do too much work last start over 1000m on the Parks track when racing down the track behind I Am Gypsy. Back to his own age now, draws well and could be a sharp improver.
Race Four (15:27) : Bridgestone Australia Handicap (64) 1200m:
Back Me: Sagapuss (Best Odds: $5.00) ran on the Parks track just a tick over a month back and was given a gem from Tourneur to get the job down narrowly but impressively. That was his first run for Philip Stokes, so there should be improvement, and he looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: Impule Diavlo (Best Odds: $5.00) hasn’t raced since the Oakbank Carnival in April where he just got too far back and he didn’t looked entirely happy on the heavy going. Resumes with no trials, but gate one with Holder on is a pretty good combination.
Roughie: Spartan Warrior (Best Odds: $21.00) could be an improver here at odds for Grant Young. He ran well last Saturday on the Parks track when running fourth to impressive winner Beau Rivage. Has only raced once here, and that was a solid effort behind Cashed, who has since run well at the Valley and will run in the Schillaci.
Race Five (16:02) : William Hill Handicap (75) 1518m:
Back Me: Try Your Best (Best Odds: $9.00) bungled the start by half a dozen lengths last Saturday and that was the end of the sectional for her winning chances. I like that she is on the quick back up, which is something the stable doesn’t normally do, so watch market moves.
Big Danger: Miss Adele (Best Odds: $7.50) got too far back last time out on the Parks track when fifth to the well above average mare Into The Mist. The win prior to that was very impressive, and with some luck from the awkward draw here, she should take some beating.
Roughie: Come Follow Me (Best Odds: $51.00) finished sixth to Into The Mist in that same race mentioned above, and she seemingly had her chance I thought. It’s been a while since she has won, but gate one with Lindop on in a thin race…surely she improves?
Race Six (16:38) : Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Handicap (70) 1050m:
Back Me: Herenoa (Best Odds: $4.40) drops in grade after contesting the Whylie last time out where he finished fifth to The Messina Nymph. Massive drop in grade here, and with a hot speed in front of him, gate one should be ideal. He looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Trueno (Best Odds: $4.40) didn’t get a great deal of luck early on in the straight when fourth to I Am Gypsy. He was about to burst through and challenge but the run closed and he had to wait, and by then I Am Gypsy was off and gone for the prize. Pannell back on now, which is a big advantage, and draws well.
Roughie: Pepper The Pin (Best Odds: $6.50) is a talented type that resumes after a pretty solid three year old prep. No trials to repeat of, but he is a Stakes performer who can run well fresh and stable rider on board, so watch market moves.
Race Seven (17:13) : Hill Smith Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Keep an eye on the Jason Warren trained Zasorceress (Best Odds: $8.50), who has been a real eye catcher in two runs in a couple of strong maiden races. She will love the rise to 1800m and there is only upside with her. Look for her to flash late.
Big Danger: Single Barrel (Best Odds: $5.00) let down very strongly to win last time out over 1300m on the Parks track, charging home from midfield on the turn to win with real authority. Not much depth to this field and though the leap to 1800m from 1300m is a slight concern, he looks to have enormous upside.
Roughie: Prince Of Pagoda (Best Odds: $21.00) was outclassed in the Morphettvilel Guineas before running at Gawler and was four and five wide no cover for the final 1000m yet still hit the line with purpose in what was a huge effort. Blinkers come off now and Neilson sticks. Big watch on this horse.
Race Eight (17:52) : Final Furlong @ Morphettville 3/11 Handicap (82) 1200m:
Back Me: Back to 1200m should suit the Robbie Laing trained Just For Starters (Best Odds: $8.50) who led all the way to get the job done over 1400m, winning narrowly but impressively, thanks to a gun ride from Caitlin Jones. Jess Payne takes over, should lead and take some running down.
Big Danger: Mr Backchat (Best Odds: $5.50) looks the threat. He tried his guts out when resuming but couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for second to Magic Boy. Drawn wide, but is drawn near Just For Starters, so those two should come across, and perhaps Neilson will punch this horse home provided he gets over without too many dramas.
Roughie: Big watch on Tildy Lad (Best Odds: $12.00), who had horrendous racing manners in two runs last prep. Recent trial win was very sharp and Shayne Cahill jumps back on, and he rides the horse better than anyone.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Herenoa
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Dawn Of Hope
VALUE: Race Eight Number 7 Tildy Lad
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11
Leg Two: 1, 5
Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 12
$50 Investment= 9.92% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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