10/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Grafton, South Grafton Cup day

2 Lately (Bet Now: $1.55) has got good upside for Lee Freedman. Bolted up two back in a Sunny Coast maiden before going to Eagle Farm when wide and doing work, sticking on okay in defeat when a close up fifth. On breeding, the rise in trip suits and off last start, I think it’ll be ideal.

7 Gracious Gracie (Bet Now: $3.80) has had numerous chances to break the maiden tag but is a consistent mare that rarely runs poorly. Ran over 1700m here last Sunday when near the speed and battled away pretty well in defeat when second. The trip is the query, but wet ground is fine and gets a soft trip.

3 Love The Look (Bet Now: $12.00) doesn’t have the best of form leading into this but does have Ben Looker and he rides this track better than anyone. She was just under two months between runs and back to the mile from this trip when racing at Ipswich last time and just found them a bit sharp. Back up in trip, fitter, expect improvement.

12 Lady Wardell (Bet Now: $3.30) on top in an even maiden. Stephen Lee trained two year old that is on debut off the back of a lovely trial here where she went to the line nicely alongside Durnstein, who bolted up here earlier this week, so I think that reads well, and always a big tick for two year olds against older horses.

5 Single Touch (Bet Now: $5.00) is a former Gary Portelli trained runner that is having his first run for Tony Newing and this stable love to target the Carnival so first up, I am thinking this is a target. Trials leading in have been solid without jumping up and down but maps nicely and gets the form rider in this part of the world to steer in Ben Looker.

11 War Lady (Bet Now: $9.50) is capable. John Shelton trained mare that resumed at Coffs Harbour when just off the speed but was presented a peach run and there to win, but first up on testing ground, condition just gave way. Fitter, trained on the track, she’s one for multiples.

4 Oblivion (Bet Now: $4.50) isn’t far off a win for John Sprague. He ran over this trip at Coffs Harbour last time and I reckon was ridden just a tad warm than normal and it took something away from his finale, albeit he was close up in defeat. I think ridden with a sit, off a good speed, he can launch late.

6 Sahana (Bet Now: $3.10) is a jump/run type that will give cheek on speed. Resumed over 900m at Scone where she was on speed and I liked the way she knuckled down. The race was there to be won and she dug in to get the win. Last bit may test, but another stable that love to target this Carnival.

5 Awesome Miss (Bet Now: $9.00) can be a big improver here. Stablemate of Fire Up Bruce that was too bad to be true at Armidale last time, pulling up post race with the dreaded Cardiac Arrhythmia. Subsequent trial was a good piece of work and off prior form, she’ll be around the mark.

9 Golden Chances (Bet Now: $3.40) gets the nod. Matty Smith trained mare that has had two runs back from a break, both over this trip. Made up good ground fresh at Taree before going to Newcastle where they rode her a touch warm and I reckon it backfired, just whacking away late. I think ridden cold, you’ll see her run better and the form around her reads well for a race like this.

14 Spitfire Sun (Bet Now: $2.50) is the one with upside and progression for Paul Murray. He resumed over 1200m at Moruya on what was a horrendous track, completely bottomless, and was good from the back when a closing fourth. Firmer footing, hopefully, and with upside, a rise to 1400m, plus a stable that targets this Carnival, he appeals.

10 My Water Lilly (Bet Now: $8.00) is suited back to 1400m I feel. She ran over the mile at Coffs Harbour last time out and tried her guts out but the mile just saw her out, tiring late. Back to 1400m is a tick and with a cheap run on speed, she could run a bold race at a likely decent price.

3 Hettinger (Bet Now: $4.80) is the one for me. Kris Lees trained gelding that ran in a maiden at the Eagle Farm midweeks where he got a mile out of his ground and while he was never a threat, I liked the way he finished his race off behind impressive winner Out Back Boom. If he can sit closer in the run, I think he’ll take beating against this lot.

13 Pretes (Bet Now: $1.85) has the C Waller polish and Blinkers first time and in a Grafton maiden…has to be respected. Resumed on a bottomless at Canterbury and just got back on a track where on speed/fence was gold. Hopefully can settle closer in the run and is a key threat with good upside.

12 Media Chick (Bet Now: $20.00) has had a stack of chances to break the maiden tag but she isn’t far off I don’t feel. Was a few weeks between runs when racing over this trip at Canberra last time when near last in the run and did make up good ground late in the piece when third, producing the best late splits of the race. Needs luck, but can win if she gets it.

11 Viking Power (Bet Now: $4.20) looks silly odds at $9/thereabouts opening price. Paul Murray trained gelding that resumed over 1300m at Moruya where he got back and wide in the run. He was never a factor but was very good late in making ground considering the run he had. With better luck this time around, a drag into the race, gee I think he’ll run a beauty.

9 Moyassar (Bet Now: $5.00) is racing really well at the moment. He ran over 1200m at Port Macquarie last time out when near the speed and tried hard, but was no match late for a talented animal in Leeside. The 1400m is a query with him, but with a soft trip on speed, he should be fine.

13 Serene Beauty (Bet Now: $26.00) is capable with her best. Recent form has been nothing to jump up and down about, but I do like her drawn wide with the claiming apprentice, hoping they drag back for cover, get a drag into the race and finish off strong. Ridden like that, I think she can be effective.

12 Wicklow (Bet Now: $2.25) is a horse with good talent for Chris Waller. Both runs this time in have come over 1500m at Rosehill, first up not getting much luck behind Mach Schnell before producing the win of the meeting a few weeks back. Like him up to 1600m and he’s clearly got more to come.

Tricky draw, but I like 11 Solar Apex (Bet Now: $7.00) for Chris Waller. This galloper was three weeks between runs when racing over 1800m two weeks ago at Randwick where he was chasing a strong speed and worked to the line nicely late when third to stablemate Francesco Guardi, a big tick also given he made ground against the pattern. If he’s within range, he’ll take beating.

If this track was able to dry out, 2 Lighting Jack (Bet Now: $9.50) would be a near moral. He was excellent against the pattern in the Civic at Randwick, closing off with real purpose behind Taksu, who I am keen on in the Winter Stakes on Saturday, so you’ll know by jump time how strong the form is.

11 Flying Banjo (Bet Now: $4.80) only runs well for mine in the get out. He spanked them two back at Armidale before going to Coffs Harbour where he had a suck run behind the speed before saving ground nearer the inside and worked to the line strongly when third to Top Boy. Wet track yes, good record at the track, draws out with clear air…he’s a great each way bet.

6 Letmeletgo (Bet Now: $4.20) isn’t far off a win for Matty Dunn. I’m being forgiving of his last start effort at Gosford because he just didn’t seem 100% around the tight track and didn’t finish the race off. Bigger track should help his cause and with luck from the gate, he’ll take beating.

4 Polemic (Bet Now: $14.00) is getting on in years but is one for wider multiples. Solid third at Murwillumbah two back before going to Coffs Harbour when stepping up to 2000m and battled away pretty well in defeat when fourth but I think the trip found him out. Back to the mile, he’s a first four threat.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 12 Wicklow

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Lately

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 11 Viking Power

Leg One: 3, 9, 12, 13

Leg Two: 4, 8, 9, 11, 13

Leg Three: 12

Leg Four: 4, 6, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review