10/6/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Strickland Stakes day

The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Strickland Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Strickland Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Strickland Stakes

1 Hanchi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very smart juvenile for Team Casey. Market wanted him when debuting over 1200m here and the manner in which he put them away when clicked up was very impressive. Sat outside the speed and was trucking under Ramoly before booting clear and won like a nice horse. Off that, 1400m should be no issue and rates as the one to beat IMO.

7 Blazing Emerald (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 1400m. Dan Morton trained juvenile that ran over 1200m here last Wednesday and was one of the eye catchers of the meeting, closing off strongly from the back behind impressive winner Forever Classic. Gets to a suitable trip now and good lead that the stable finds Pike to steer. Plenty going for him.

6 Ayumi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) jumps to 1400m from 1000m but I think she has an engine under the hood. Her latest run was three weeks back over 1000m here where she got back off the speed and was flat footed when the sprint went on but picked up and was pretty good to the line when third. Like her up in trip and the form around her does read quite well.

8 Differentiator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the nod. Summer Dickson trained mare that resumed in a similar race to this two weeks ago over 1300m and on a day where up/in was ideal, her run from the back was very good I thought when third to Civvy Street, beaten around a neck. Has more upside than most and good lead for mine that Pike sticks from the resumption. Hard to beat.

4 Without Reg (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Rhys Radford and is one of the key chances. He is 2/2 this time in, resuming with a bang at Northam before proving that was no fluke with a dominant win over this track/distance at the midweeks from a couple of weeks ago. Good test here, but hard to knock the way he is racing at the moment.

Fitter and up to 1400m, significant jockey upgrade, I think 2 Outspoken Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race. He resumed in the Civvy Street race mentioned above where Taj Dyson probably rode him a tad warm, especially given he was first up, and was still there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off, running a narrow fourth. Think with a more patient steer, he can bounce back.

12 I Love Your Smile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Lucy Fiore and is the one to beat for me. She has won her past two, breaking the maiden two back over the mile before going to the 1700m here at the midweeks where she let down with purpose from the back, giving them a start and a beating in a strong effort. 2000m no issue and hard to knock the way she’s going.

7 Ihts Closing Inn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a query at the trip but she is a filly that is flying for Adam Durrant. She ran over the mile here a fortnight back where she got an absolute peach from Pike, settling just off the speed before slicing his way through on the filly and finished best, with Pike lifting her over the line. With a soft trip, 2000m should be okay and is the one with upside/progression.

2 Bambun Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at 2000m but I think he is looking for it. Solid without threatening two back over 1800m at Ascot before coming back to the mile here three weeks back and was good, keeping on from off the speed behind Vast Art, who came out and won a Stakes race last Saturday, so the form reads well, and up in trip, he appeals.

Pike is back on 4 Pot Shot (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and that is enough for me to lean her way. She ran over 1000m here three weeks ago against the older horses when wide with cover and just whacked to the line without threatening behind Real Danger, who won again last Saturday to frank the form. The query is 1200m but dropping miles in depth here and Pike on, I think she can take this out.

6 Planet Cash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Hayden Ballantyne trained three year old that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since March 12 in the JC Roberts when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Another Chino. He is a bomb when produced fresh and is 1/1 at the track/distance, so even though he resumes without a trial, he has enough ticks to say he commands respect.

2 Sunny Honey (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be an improver here. Market said he’d need the run when resuming at this track/distance two weeks back and while he didn’t win, I thought he worked home well enough when a close up fourth to Sky Duke, beaten under a length. Has the potential to settle closer in the run and with upside, he appeals as a knockout chance.

4 Harmika (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the straight bat option. Adam Durrant has this mare flying this time in. Loved the way she let down to win two back over 1100m at Ascot before going to this track/distance two weeks ago when near the speed and battled on pretty well in defeat behind a handy mare, Category Three. I reckon the end of 1200m is her knock so back to 1000m is ideal and is hard to beat.

6 Costume Party (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. Luke Fernie trained mare that resumed here a few weeks ago and the fate was sealed after a tardy beginning, failing to come on behind Swim Through. Good second up record and the lead here is Pike booked to steer, so to me that says there is intent. Watch the market and see what it does.

1 First Law (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a fab record at Belmont and remaining here, he appeals. He resumed at this track/distance where he got a lovely sit behind the speed before angling clear and in a driving finish, the bob of the head went his way in a tight go. Great second up record and with a kind map in his corner, he appeals as one of the leading chances.

11 Top Of The Pops (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me in a tricky sprint race. Dan Morton trained three year old that has been kept on ice, having not raced since April 15 at Ascot over 1400m when back in the run but rocketed to the line late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Knot Secret. Back to 1000m I find interesting but gets Pike to steer and is 2/2 at Belmont. Happy to be in his corner.

4 State Of Power (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Simon Miller after racing last Saturday at this track/distance where she was tucked in behind the speed before angling into clear air, somewhat clear air, and drove hard to finish his race off nicely enough behind the in form Real Danger. Drawn out should mean she gets clear air this time and be dangerous.

9 Deep Dive (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Luke Fernie trains this gelding, who resumes. He hasn’t raced since Jan 28 at Ascot when leading but couldn’t quite finish it off when close up in defeat behind Metallon. Resumes without a trial, but gets Chris Parnham booked for the return and has the racing pattern to give himself every chance.

Pretty poor edition of the Strickland IMO. Landed with 4 Last Of The Line (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but not a great deal of confidence. He is several weeks between runs since contesting a 2100m race at Ascot where he was on speed and tried his guts out, kicking and looked the winner, only to be nabbed late by Jadavi. He has a good record at Belmont and off last start, I think 2000m will be fine.

5 Notorious One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order for Team Gangemi. He comes through the traditional lead ups of the Belmont Sprint and Hyperion, the latter coming a fortnight back here and he was quite good from the back, working home strongly against the pattern. Unknown at the trip but I think the way he’s racing, i think he is looking for it.

3 Kaptain Kaos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for wider exotics IMO. He is another that comes through the Belmont Sprint and Hyperion. Both runs, he has been a bit on the plain side, but has seemed to be a bit one paced when asked for an effort, so I think getting to 2000m is ideal and he does have a fab record at the track, so I wouldn’t be dismissing him.

8 Category Three (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very progressive mare for Adam Durrant and confident she can make it 2/2 this time in. Resumed two weeks ago over 1200m here where she got an absolute peach from Pike off the speed but it looked like it could end up being an ugly watch. Thankfully, she got clear air at the right time and drove hard late to win. Fitter, up to 1300m, she’ll take beating.

3 Trade War (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be an improver for Michael Lane. Ran over 1400m here a fortnight back when dragged back to last, wide no cover, and just couldn’t get involved when down the track behind Catalpa, who won again last Saturday to frank the form. Chris Parnham jumps on, maps to get a much better run in transit and his best is clearly good enough.

7 Pat’s Got Sass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run a cheeky race at a price. Resumed in the Catalpa race mentioned above from two weeks back where Taj Dyson went too quick in front aboard the mare and she tired late to finish four lengths from the winner. Paul Harvey jumps on so that is a significant jockey upgrade and with a more conservative steer, he’ll be dangerous.

7 Ginger Baker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Vernon Brockman and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance. He has won his past two, both wins coming at this track/distance. Latest win came two weeks ago where he led throughout and was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win nicely. More depth here but lands in front and will be hard to run down.

Fitter and up to 1600m, 8 Billy Ray (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key chances. He resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back where he got back to near last in the run but I really liked the way he picked up in the straight and clocked some of the better late splits of the race behind Media Baron. Good second up record, loves racing at Belmont and has more upside than most.

3 Staralign (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is just about at peak fitness now and is dangerous. He comes through the Media Baron race from two weeks back mentioned above where he got a fair way out of his ground and was good late without threatening. Has the potential to settle much closer in the run and off last run, he’s going well enough to be a knockout hope here.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 11 Top Of The Pops

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Hanchi

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Last Of The Line

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 11

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 3, 7, 8, 11

Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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