1/7/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Oaks day

The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Belmont Oaks Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Belmont Oaks 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Belmont Oaks

1 Rope Them (Bet Now:  $SP.00) In is a juvenile I have plenty of time for and I think the rise to 1400m is ideal. He’s had two career outings, debuting with an electric win over 1000m before going to 1200m two weeks ago, settling a mile out of his ground but loved the way he found the line late to run third, clocking some of the best late splits of the meeting. He’ll eat up 1400m and if within range, could be a case of good luck beating him.

2 Ancient Guidance (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it. Ryan Hill trains this son of God Has Spoken, who comes here off the back of a dominant win over 1300m here last Wednesday where he was wide no cover for the trip but was absolutely trucking in the run before being clicked up and away he went to gap them. That was his first run in five weeks so he has good room for improvement.

8 The Hill Tribe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite knockout hope. He was big odds when debuting behind Ancient Guidance last Wednesday but he was one of the eye catchers of the meeting, getting a fair way out of his ground but worked home with real purpose to finish third. Has the potential to settle much closer in the run and up to 1400m, run under the belt, he appeals.

2 Reign Of Fire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won in a long time but gee he finds a winnable race. He did enough fresh over 1000m before going to 1200m here two weeks ago where he got back in the run but really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Desert Vixen. Hard fit now and with a good track/distance record, upside, he appeals as the one to beat.

1 Pat’s Got Sass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back to 1300m on firmer footing. She ran last Saturday over 1400m here in a much stronger race when attempting to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but 1400m on testing ground found him out late when fourth to Pray Again. Drops big time in depth here, lands near the front, firmer footing, she’ll take running down.

10 Secret Deploy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. This guy showed really good promise early on in his career but the wheels have fallen off significantly. I find him interesting because he resumes and hasn’t had a public trial, which isn’t really the norm for this stable, but maps to do no work in the run, down in the weights…watch the market and see what it does.

1 Ghost Who Walks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very genuine animal for Neville Parnham that saves his best for Belmont and maps super so I think he is the straight bat option. Three weeks between runs since winning at this track/distance where he got into a beaut spot near the speed and in a driving finish, he got the job done narrowly. Handles all conditions but do think he is much better on top of the ground and maps to get the suck run once again.

5 Gemma’s Son (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He was unlucky not to win fresh, driving hard late to just miss out on picking up Ghost Who Walks. He then went to 1200m a fortnight back and was good late without threatening behind Bitofmerit. Back to 1000m I do like, good speed in front, he’ll get his chance to finish over the top.

7 Premium Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy gelding that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since Feb 18 at Pinjarra when producing an end of prep run down the straight when down the track behind Beads. Interesting he resumes without a trial, but is a very good horse early on in the prep and is a track/distance winner.

5 Miss Drakova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks extremely well suited back to 1000m for Neville Parnham. Three weeks between runs since resuming over 1200m here where the market said she’d need the run and that is how it panned out, getting off the speed and finding the line okay but just couldn’t quite threaten behind Universal Flair. Back to 1000m, firmer footing, more positive ride, she can take this out.

7 He’sgotwings (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Summer Dickson and deserves a crack at metro level. He has won two on the bounce, both coming over 1100m at Northam. Latest win saw him get on speed comfortably under Pike and despite a struggle in the straight, he was always going to win and just got there. Seems a short course horse so 1000m suits and good lead that Pike sticks.

2 Here’s Dreaming (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Luke Fernie trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since March 18 at Ascot when back in the run and making up headway without threatening behind Thomas Magnum. Resumes without a trial but watch the market.

4 Extra Secret (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying and with clear air, I am confident she takes this out. She has been excellent in two runs back from a spell, and really, you can make a case to say that with better luck, she wins on both occasions instead of being desperately unlucky. Hard fit and getting to 1400m looks such an ideal set up and with the claim, she is beautifully in. Keen on her running well.

3 Allmamoney (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Adam Durrant trained mare that resumed over 1000m here last Wednesday where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a threat, I liked the way she found the line behind Lexington City and clocked some of the better late splits of the meeting. Pike sticks, can settle closer, hard to beat.

6 Savanik (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is working up to a win for Simon Miller. This mare is six weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she got back in the run but was travelling nicely before getting wider and finishing her race off strongly when second to Honey Dew. The break between runs I find interesting but the depth here, as a whole, is thin, and maps ideally.

1 Crescent City (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. Outstanding first up winner before going to this track/distance two weeks ago where IMO Pike rode far too cute on the horse. First up, Poy showed the horse can make a sustained run and win so not sure why Pike rode so cute and waited far too long to get going when third, beaten around a head. Gets in well after the claim and confident he can bounce back into the winners list.

14 Rare Encounter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Just a run first up over 1400m here behind Black Spirit but ran a much improved race a fortnight back at this trip when a closing second to Noteworthy, who I am keen on running well in the Oaks. Pike sticks, hard fit now, she is very likeable.

3 Position Of Power (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was completely out of form but he surprised most with a win at this track/distance two weeks back, leading throughout. He got complete control in front, walked them in front and that ended up being the difference as he was able to fight on strongly, fend them off and win. Not sure he’ll get it as easy this time around, but off a win, he has to be given some level of respect.

4 Noteworthy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very good filly of the future and confident she can measure up against these. 2/2 this time in, both wins coming here. Resumed with a bang over 1400m and repeated the dose with a dominant win over the mile two weeks ago, letting down with real purpose and her late splits were excellent relative to the meeting. Like her up to 2000m and has that sense of timing to keep on improving.

2 Ihts Closing Inn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Adam Durrant trained filly that is absolutely flying at the moment and is a key winning chance. She has won three on the bounce, the latest coming at this track/distance three weeks ago when giving them a start and a beating under Pike, rounding them up from the back for an impressive win, beating the older horses, which is always a good sign for a younger horse.

7 Antique Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the breeding to be okay at 2000m. Well bred filly that comes here off the back of a win over the mile here, getting the sweet sit just off the speed under Pike before angling clear at the right time and in a driving finish, she got the job done. Should get a relatively soft run from the gate…knockout hope.

2 Demolish (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a great bet here. Neville Parnham trained three year old that resumed two weeks ago in the Belmont Guineas over the mile and I thought he did a super job given he was first up with improvement to come and kept on very well in defeat when third to Rusty Dreams. He’s proven at the trip, he has more upside than most…think he’s clearly the one to beat.

3 Upper Limits (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at 2000m and IMO is a definite query at the trip but the fact that Pike sticks is a good enough lead. I thought Pike gave him a 12/10 in the Guineas but he just had no answers late for Rusty Dreams, finishing second. With an economical run, I think 2000m will be okay and I am trusting that Pike knows what he is doing.

8 Santa Brae (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the 2000m lead in form under the belt, which should hold him in good stead. Last start saw him break his maiden over 2000m at Pinjarra where he was on speed throughout and was there to be beaten but he just found under pressure to fend them off and score a narrow but impressive win. Not sure he wins, but can fill a first four spot.

8 Category Three (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a really good prep and confident she can make it 2/2 to start the campaign. She resumed several weeks ago over 1200m here where Pike produced his best to get her home, slicing his way through on the mare and Pike drove her hard to the line in getting the job done. Break between runs and staying at 1200m, but she looks very progressive and it could be a case of good luck beating her.

10 Aztec Ruler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented three year old for Stefan Vahala that resumes and confident he can resume with a forward showing. He won his opening two career outings before going to Ascot and tried hard but was never a factor when fourth to a quality animal, Street Parade. Been given a good break and with two trials under the belt, I think he’s ready to go.

5 Trade War (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run a much improved race on top of the ground. He ran last Saturday over 1400m where he struggled to pick his feet up on the wet track when down the track behind Pray Again. Back to 1200m and back on firmer footing are two big ticks for him and with luck in the run, his best is good enough to be a knockout hope.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Crescent City

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 8 Category Three

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Miss Drakova

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2, 4

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8

Leg Four: 8

$50 Investment = 625% of the dividend if successful

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