1/6/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville

Adelaide metro racing this Saturday remains on the Parks track at Morphettville for a nine race card, though the hurdle race will be run on the course proper. The weather forecast is for cloudy weather, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Gee this looks lovely placement from Archie Alexander when it comes to 4 Andrea Mantegna (Bet Now: $2.20). This gelding has had a couple of runs over the jumps, debuting with a solid placing during the Warrnambool Carnival before going to Hamilton where he was a notable drifter in betting but under a lovely ride from Richard Cully, combined with good jumping and decent flat speed, he was far too good. He’s got these covered when it comes to flat speed. Just needs to jump clean.

3 Exalted Lightning (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Grant Young trained veteran who has been performing admirably on the flat but I think his best days in front of him will come via the jumping. He ran over the hurdles at Gawler last time where he looked a good thing on paper and under Tommy Ryan, his flat speed against some camels saw him prove far too good. Harder here, but he’s relatively new to the jumping caper and is getting better with experience.

The best version of 6 Tangara (Bet Now: $31.00) is good enough to be around the mark. Just got too far back two back at Hamilton before going to Casterton where his last couple of jumps were plain after being near the speed when fourth to stablemate Murphy’s Delight. If he brings his best, a win wouldn’t totally shock. But realistically, I think he’s one to include in multiples only.

Few unknowns here but I’ll take a chance on the Phillip Stokes trained 3 God’s Penny (Bet Now: $8.50), who is on debut. He has had two official trials and each time he hasn’t really set the world on fire, but loved what I saw from him in a May 23 jumpout at Gawler where he led all the way and bolted in. That was very impressive and stable rarely get it wrong when presenting a horse for start one.

1 Bay Wave (Bet Now: $6.00) is the one I’m struggling with. Always on guard with the stable when they produce on fresh without a public trial. This colt is on debut and hasn’t had a trial/jumpout as far as I know, so a bit of guessing, and the dam is nothing special re producing decent progeny, but the Jolly stable are very good at this kind of set up and a win wouldn’t shock.

8 Sheza Little Posh (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Barbados filly resuming for Gordon Richards. This girl made her debut on January 19 on the course proper where she took on three rivals and despite being well beaten by impressive Sizzlefly, she stuck on pretty well to run second. Has had a good break and trialled well a couple of weeks back behind Roccabascerana, who bolted in last Saturday to frank the form.

6 Trilli (Bet Now: $2.90) is going really well for Jason Warren. Was good here two back behind Bam’s On Fire before going to the midweeks at Ballarat last Wednesday where she looked the winner when dashing to the front, only to be nabbed right on the peg and was another victim of the $1.01 in play curse. Think she has a win in her and with luck in running, could be here.

Giving respect to the handy galloper 2 Burning The Clock (Bet Now: $3.30). Will Clarken trains this three year old, who was given a sweet ride to get the maiden win two back at Werribee, beating a subsequent winner. He then ran over 1050m on the course proper three weeks ago and ran well but seemed to have his chance when third to stablemate Magna Bella. Relatively safe option IMO but not confident.

3 Exalted Maxine (Bet Now: $12.00) has been an iron filly for Grant Young this time in. She’s won five of her 15 career outings, the latest coming at the midweeks at Murray Bridge over 900m where she took on the older horses and despite sitting three wide on a hot speed, she got clear late and was most impressive. 1000m no issue for her and with these Grant Young gallopers, fillies/mares especially, they generally hold good form when finding it.

3 Meli Melo (Bet Now: $3.10) has had a career best prep for Barry Brook and she can continue that here. Contested the Queens Cup two weeks ago on the course proper where she had the suck run nearer the inside and chased hard all the way to run third to Valac. This is a massive drop in depth for the mare and she does have a good record on the Parks track. Likeable.

7 Lostarc (Bet Now: $2.35) is on the seven day back up for the Ryan Balfour stable after racing over 1950m here last Saturday where he was very one paced on the sticky track and looked gone on the turn but kept finding and in the end got close to winning but had to settle for a third finish behind All Too Huiying. Unknown at the trip, but off last week, he should be okay.

1 Olympic Academy (Bet Now: $13.00) could easily bounce back at this level. He contested the Queens Cup last time out where he was wide and doing work all the way. Entitled to drop away and he did behind Valac. Been a little while since he has raced in an event as weak as this, and with the claim for an in form Caitlin Jones, he does get in very well at the weights.

Well and truly D-Day for 4 Debt Collector (Bet Now: $2.20). Good without luck in his first two runs for the prep before racing over 1400m last time where he seemed to have every chance in the run under Dwayne Dunn when third to Tan Tat Trusting. This is considerably weaker, he likes the Parks track, hard fit…well and truly last chance otherwise it’s just about a life job.

Getting away from blacktype company will suit the Barry Brook trained 5 Kabini (Bet Now: $10.00). Was very good two back in the Oakbank Stakes behind Goodwood winner Despatch before going to the Proud Miss where not much went her way re luck and should have finished closer behind Lady Cosmology. I think back to this level for the mare will see her prove hard to beat.

7 Turf Man (Bet Now: $61.00) is a John Hickmott trained stayer who is likely gearing up for a Darwin Cup prep, that race being his last start when outclassed behind Zahspeed. Can’t find a jumpout for him, so a bit of an unknown as to how forward he is, but does have a touch of quality about him and if they go quick in front, he could well have last say. Goes in multiples just in case.

3 Rapid Bay (Bet Now: $3.50) might just be the next good horse for Jake Stephens. Bad starts/bad luck cost him in his first two career runs before going to 1500m at Gawler where he looked a moral and despite a few nervous moments on the turn, Tourneur got him into the clear and loved the way he charged clear when he got room. Progressive, looks above average and I think he’s the winner.

The drop in grade should really suit 1 Ice Ghost (Bet Now: $3.60) for Gordon Richards. He has contested some pretty good 3YO races throughout the Carnival, his last run being in the Adelaide Guineas when close up behind So We Are in a bunched finish and while it was a Stakes race, I’m not sure the depth was that deep, and he’s been up a while, but Stakes grade back to benchmark 70, he is a threat at his best.

Bit to like about the David Jolly trained 5 She’s Never Late (Bet Now: $9.50). Impressive winner two back over the above average Rapid Bay before going to Strathalbyn where she took on the older horses on a wet track but she handled it well and got the job done again. Harder here, but always a good sign when a three year old filly can beat the older horses and is heading in the right direction.

Patrick Payne didn’t have much luck for the most part at this track last Saturday but I think 3 Strategic Demand (Bet Now: $3.50) can be a winner for him. Gee it was a horrendous watch if you were on last Saturday at Flemington. Had the good sit behind the speed and looked to be bolting but the run just didn’t appear and he pretty much went around as if it was a barrier trial. Proven at this track and it’s a drop in depth.

2 Waging War (Bet Now: $2.10) is the class runner of the field and should take beating for the Macdonald/Gluyas stable. Contested the RA Lee over the mile on the course proper two weeks back where she seemed to get every chance I thought but stuck to the task pretty well in defeat when second to the in form Fastnet Tempest. This is probably D-Day for given she does have a bit on these re class.

1 Balf’s Choice (Bet Now: $6.00) will welcome the drop in grade and depth after running in the RA Lee last start where he did a bit of work to land on speed and the effort told late behind Fastnet Tempest. He does seem effective at this kind of level and though better suited on the course proper, he’s a two time winner on the track here and the smaller field should help his cause.

Have to give 5 Savvy Shields (Bet Now: $12.00) another look. Will Clarken trains this mare, who had trialled up really well prior to resuming on the Synthetic at Ballarat where I just don’t think she went a yard on that surface in a total forgive. Can’t ignore how she looked in trials/jumpouts and this isn’t the strongest race going around. Runs up to her trials and she’ll go close.

3 Hard Up (Bet Now: $5.00) is a horse I’ve been on a few times this prep and has let me down, so I couldn’t back him to win, but a win here certainly wouldn’t surprise. Just got too far back at Casterton last start but loved the way he found the line when a close up fourth to Young Douro. If he runs up to anything like that, he wins here, but he can mix his form, as shown this time in.

10 Tennessee Raider (Bet Now: $12.00) is a fascinating runner. Handy Rebel Raider mare for the Macdonald/Gluyas stable that resumes, having not raced in nearly a year. Her form when last in work does read well, most notably last run when second to Amberdi, who has since been Stakes performed. Recent jumpout here was solid enough, but best to see what the market does.

4 France’s Boy (Bet Now: $5.50), now that he has a win under the belt, can go on with it. Ran over 1400m at Murray Bridge last time where he was absolutely slapped in betting late and under a lovely ride from an in form Sairyn Fawke, the gelding powered clear late and was most impressive. Has struggled in town before, but this isn’t the strongest metro race I’ve seen.

10 Diamond Tycoon (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Mcdonald/Gluyas trained mare who had her first run for the new stable over 1200m on the course proper two weeks ago where she went back from the wide draw to near last in the run on a day where making ground was somewhat difficult, but loved the way she found the line late. 1400m back in depth here against this lot, she appeals.

8 Containment (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Marilyn Smith trained mare who doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but she’s usually thereabouts, which was the case once again last start over 1350m at Strathalbyn where she looked home when hitting the front but was nabbed on the peg by the well backed First Kiss. That was her first run in a few weeks, so hopefully there is room for improvement.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Rapid Bay

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Strategic Demand

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 3 God’s Penny

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 3, 5, 10, 11

Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 9, 10

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