1/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

This Saturday will see a nine race card set down for Moonee Valley, it’s first afternoon program since Cox Plate Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

I’ll take a chance on 2 Social Spin (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS), a son of Toorak Toff who resumes for Darren Weir. This bloke showed good promise during the Winter, highlighted by a win over 1400m at Sandown when leading all the way. Form around him reads well. Can’t find a recent jump out, so market will more than likely be the guide, but on form, happy to be in his corner.

3 Behemoth (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a fascinating runner. David Jolly trains this three year old, who resumed on Cup Day in a maiden at Morphettville over 1050m and he absolutely bolted in, landing some good bets. The positive is he’s got a stack of upside and trialled enormous last week. The negative is that the time he ran that meeting was the slowest of three 1050m races.

7 Advancing (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a Mick Price trained gelding, who was hard in the market when racing in a Moe maiden last Thursday and he romped in under Micky Dee, spanking them after sitting on speed throughout. Run prior at Kyneton was solid and the form out of that has been decent. Confident he cam measure up.

11 Namimo (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is a Choisir filly on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This girl jumped out last Friday at Flemington where she sat wide throughout but was under a nice hold from the rider and she went on to win the jump out without being extended. Looks a good type and definitely goes in the numbers.

6 First Responder (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Star Witness for Team Hawkes that is having his first start. He jumped out last Friday at Flemington where he was on speed throughout and wasn’t pushed out when going through his gears. Looked to have a bit up the sleeve and based on the breeding, he should come to hand early.

4 Company Line (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Dissident having his first start for the Mick Price stable. This bloke jumped out recently at Sandown and looked to move quite well when chasing on speed and responding well to run a closing second. Good draw is here for Mick Dee to use and I don’t think this is a strong race.

7 Luck Favours (Bet Now: $14.00) will do me. Remember that this was the two year old who was touted as potentially heading to Royal Ascot. Those plans were shelved and she debuted at Seymour where she was well supported and despite doing a bit wrong and winning narrowly, she was impressive. Have to respect to the stable when they come to town and I think she’ll handle herself.

8 My Pendant (Bet Now: $3.60) looks a progressive daughter of Pins for the Danny O’Brien stable who ran in a 1200m maiden at Sandown last Wednesday where she was hard in the market and despite being a somewhat difficult steer for Willow, she put it together late and won with a touch of class/authority. Definite threat.

4 Our Long Sali (Bet Now: $5.00) could be an improver at odds. This girl ran down the straight on Oaks Day and wasn’t too bad in defeat I thought given she was outclassed on form behind Bleu Roche. Really well in at the weights and the Payne/Hope combo has been lethal past 12 months. A win wouldn’t surprise.

Bludger of a race but for the sake of a tip I’ll side with 1 Five Kingdom (Bet Now: $5.00), a Hayes/Dabernig trained four year old who was eight weeks between runs when racing over 1400m under the lights at Pakenham. It looked hairy for a few moments but once Regan shoved into the clear, he surged and proved too good. He’ll eat up the extra trip and is in a leading stable.

3 Hostar (Bet Now: $6.00) is a son of Host for the in form Peter Chow stable who resumed at Ballarat just under a month back where he was hard in the market and chased very hard in the straight to score a narrow but impressive win, and the form out of the race has been strong. Stable is flying, draws well and gets the claim for an in form Jack Martin.

4 Koolama Bay (Bet Now: $10.00) could be suited back up in trip. Was 1600-1450m last time at Kyneton and just didn’t have the zip in the legs to go with Angelic Spirit, who was dominant. Think up to 1500m will be more to his liking and if he can get on speed without doing too much work, he might take some beating.

Maybe going off one run too early, but this does look an ideal race for 5 Mintha (Bet Now: $3.30). This Tony McEvoy trained mare resumed in the Summoned at Sandown where she was outclassed on form but I thought she ran a very credible race behind stablemate I’m A Princess. Clear drop in grade/depth and runs well second up. Likeable.

6 Snogging (Bet Now: $3.80) finds a very winnable race here for the Busuttin/Young stable. She was outclassed in the Summoned given her previous form but she somewhat overachieved with a close up fifth nearer the inside, which wasn’t the best spot to be. If she can hold that form here, she’s a definite winning chance.

9 Valeria Messalina (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Richard Laming trained mare who trialled well prior to resuming at Mornington where the punters latched on and under a lovely steer from an in form Jason Maskiell, the mare finished best for a strong and determined win, with improvement to come. She can measure up here for sure.

I like 3 Grey Shadow (Bet Now: $3.70). This Darren Weir trained mare hasn’t raced for over a month since contesting the Alinghi at Caulfield where she was far from disgraced when fifth to From Within, beaten just over two lengths. She seems to be a really good mare on the fresh side and has the class factor against this lot.

7 Fill The Flute (Bet Now: $4.80) has earned a crack at this level. Jamie Edwards has this mare in career best form at the moment, winning 3/3 this time in, latest coming at this track/distance in early October when leading throughout and running good time. Harder here, but she’s got the right racing pattern and will be in it for a long way.

8 Unique Lovely (Bet Now: $7.00) will be the one to watch out for if they overdo it in front. Franke Stockdale trains this mare, who resumed at this track/distance a couple of Friday nights back and worked home hard from off the pace to run second to Gambler’s Girl. She is a second up winner and has run some cracking races here in the past.

Fitness levels the query but hard to ignore the class factor that 2 Ken’s Dream (Bet Now: $5.00) brings here. He’s a beauty for Darren Weir who rarely runs a bad race and that was clear to see when last in work during the Autumn. Handy record at the Valley, Allen steers and first up last prep he produced the best late splits from last at this track/distance.

4 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $3.20) is the knockout chance if they go hard in front. Could make a strong case he should have won the 955m here on Cox Plate Day two back before going to the Doveton at Sandown where he had to make his run nearer the inside, which wasn’t the A1 ground, so for mine that was a forgive. Back at a track he loves, he can bounce back.

Looks a lovely race for 3 Holy Blade (Bet Now: $10.00). Darren Weir trains this four year old who ran down the straight at Flemington on Oaks Day and was outclassed but far from disgraced behind stablemate Thermal Current. Like him back to this level and back to 1000m. Looks an ideal recipe for success IMO.

If he can tick the 2040m box, 7 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the one to beat. He was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1800m on Oaks Day where he had three wide cover before peeling wider on the turn and letting down nicely but was no match ate for Savacool. One failed run at the trip but he kicked up to lead that day at Rosehill, which isn’t his go. I think the distance will be fine.

8 Top Prospect (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Darren Weir trained galloper who has been a bit of a tease for a while but he finally got a win on the board last time out over 2000m at Flemington, aided by a peach of a ride from Williams, who saved ground nearer the inside and finished. Not sure he beat much, but now he has a win on the board, he can go on with it.

3 Our Big Mike (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Craig Phelan trained kiwi having start two in Australia. He made his Australian debut in the Kyneton where he was far from disgraced for mine behind Another Coldie. He looks the leader here, and we know that recently those on speed at the Valley have clearly been advantaged. Could well be a threat if left alone in front.

2 Like To Think So (Bet Now: $5.50) is an absolute beauty for the Kym Hann stable who just doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He was outstanding when leading all the way to get the job done over 1400m on the Parks track three weeks back. Back to 1200m no issue, hard fit, in form and has the right racing pattern.

With the scratchings, the barrier isn’t too bad for the James Cummings trained 3 Demolition (Bet Now: $4.60). In terms of ability/potential, he has these covered. Just depends how forward he is. Has a good record fresh, likes racing here and his recent Flemington jump out was more than encouraging. If you’re backing him to win, I’d want to see a market push the final 10-15 minutes before jump time.

10 Easy Beast (Bet Now: $14.00) is the query. Enigmatic galloper for Richard Laming who had a mixed prep in the Winter, but the positive is that he did bolt in fresh, over the 900m at the Gold Coast. Recent Cranbourne trial was encouraging and 1200m fresh tells me plenty of work has gone into him for the resumption.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 5 Mintha

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Ken’s Dream

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 7 Luck Favours

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 7, 8

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 8, 12

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 10, 14

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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