1/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Winterbottom Stakes day

Speed looks hot so I am hoping that 2 Zuccheros (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) can have last look. He is two months between runs since racing over 1200m here where he got well back off the pace but worked home well to run third to Electric Light. They’ll go mad in front here, so he will be off that fast speed and having last look.

5 How To Fly (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up after racing in the Jungle Mist Classic last Saturday where she somewhat overachieved for mine but was far from disgraced when fourth to Misty Metal. This is a welcome drop in depth and with Pike back aboard, she’ll sit back and launch at them late.

1 The Celt (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has been a ripper for some time and got another well deserved win on the board three weeks back over 1100m when on speed and edging past Misty Metal, who of course franked the form by bolting up in the Jungle Mist. I’d like to see him ridden cold from the gate due to the speed inside him.

Have to side the way of 3 Specialism (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS), who is 2/2 for Paul Jordan. Won on debut at this track/distance before stepping back to 1000m where she was even more brilliant. Should lead these for fun and take a power of beating. Really keen on her chances here, especially if she can get a soft lead.

6 Rapid Eye Movement (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is a Fighting Sun filly having her first start. She has had a couple of trials leading up to her debut, and she has really looked the part each time. Takes on a good one but confident she can measure up and run well for an in form stable. Should come over comfortably from the draw.

5 Baby Blues (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a City Place filly having her first start for the Doug Harrison team. This girl trialled just under two weeks back over 950m at Lark Hill where she looked to move pretty good to my eye when second to Jericho Missile. Gets a good run from a reasonable draw and stable can produce a first starter successfully.

Looks a race in two but going the way of 3 Arcadia Prince  (Bet Now: $1.90). He ran over this track/distance a fortnight ago where he scored a brilliant win, savaging the line from the back to win and was found to have pulled up with the thumps, which adds more merit. Pike on, good gate and upside, he’ll do me.

8 Spillonova (Bet Now: $4.50) looks a decent prospect for Jim Taylor who was off the map in the market when racing at this track/distance two weeks back and under a confident on speed steer from the Jason Brown, the horse never looked like getting beat, bolting in and running time. He’ll be near the speed again and proving tough to run down.

5 Broker (Bet Now: $13.00) comes through the Arcadia Prince race from two weeks ago where he was a notable drifter in betting and despite getting a decent run on speed, he couldn’t finish it off when fourth to the Williams runner. Think he’ll come right on from that…maybe needs one more run but has the quality.

4 Deception Game (Bet Now: $8.00) the one to beat for mine. Adam Durrant trains this three year old, who ran over the mile here last Wednesday where he got back in a slowly run affair but finished off strongly to run a narrow second. If the pace is on, clearly the horse to hold out against this lot in my opinion.

6 Nordic King (Bet Now: $5.00) is a four year old trained by Adam Durrant who resumed over 1300m at Northam where he was backed late and under a patient steer from Chris Parnham, the gelding finished best and was impressive. If he can handle the step up in grade, he’ll be a definite threat from the back late.

2 Gauged (Bet Now: $31.00) is a Steve Wolfe trained gelding who steps back up to city grade after running on his home track at Albany less than two weeks ago where he got a mile out of his ground but finished off with real purpose late to run a narrow second. Third up, he should just about be ready fitness wise.

Not the strongest of races going around but siding with 7 Jaspara (Bet Now: $21.00). He ran over the mile here last time where he got back off the pace but I liked the way he finished off behind Blackwood River. Back 100m in trip the little concern and if the speed goes on, he’ll be strong at the end. Happy to be with him each way.

3 Rising Sea (Bet Now: $5.50) is two weeks between runs for the Chris Gangemi stable after racing over 1400m where he chased a decent speed and tried hard but Spillonova was too brilliant. Think the extra 100m will be ideal for this galloper and he should take a power of beating. Just needs to run the trip out strongly.

8 Nicconi’s Boy (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Neville Parnham trained gelding who ran over the mile here last Wednesday where I thought he was given every chance just off the pace but couldn’t quite get the job done when a close up second. Back in trip should suit him and is a definite threat. Class rise looks the only negative.

Dartboard job this. Going with 9 Paradise Square (Bet Now: $26.00), who is two months between runs since racing on his home track at Kalgoorlie where he was given a lovely ride by McNaught and proved too good, albeit the margin was narrow. He has a very good fresh record and Pateman does steer the Fernie horses very nicely.

8 Finally French (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Team Harvey trained gelding who looks as if he’ll peak for this. Ran over 1100m at Northam last start where he had the 1/1 sit and once presented, it looked game over, but he couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Fine Scent. Has a good record at Ascot, should get three wide cover and launch.

14 Dynamite Jack (Bet Now: $41.00) rises a fair bit in class and the Geraldton form probably isn’t A1 for this, but he gets a soft barrier and will be strong late, which is what he was last time out, surging hard to just miss out on picking up Akiko. Not sure he can win given his record but he’s one for exotics for mine.

I just can’t believe the price on offer for the mare 13 Enticing Star (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS). You just have to forget her last start flop over 1400m. She was in season so there was that excuse but also the tempo was slow and she really had no chance. Trial since says she’s back on track and a fast run 1200m will be perfect.

Best horse in the race is clearly 10 Viddora (Bet Now: $2.90 FAT ODDS). It’s just a matter of do you want to take $2.50 or thereabouts. She hasn’t raced since The Everest where she didn’t handle the bog track. Been set for this race, looked enormous in the recent trial and she’s an outstanding traveller. Clearly the one to beat.

12 I’ll Have A Bit (Bet Now: $12.00 FAT ODDS) looks to be ticking over beautifully for this race. She looked home last time in the Doveton but just ran out of condition the final 50m. Chris Parnham rides the mare very well and a fast run 1200m looks right up her alley. I think she’s the clear knockout chance at odds in this race.

Just how good is 2 Illustrious Tycoon (Bet Now: $3.60)? I think we will get a decent idea here. He resumed for Trevor Andrews after a Summer prep which saw him win 3/3 in impressive fashion. Two trials leading in have been more than encouraging and if he’s forward enough, he’s the one to beat and can go onto better things.

9 Truly Belong (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented mare for Adam Durrant who was specked at odds when resuming over this track/distance where she settled just off the pace and tried hard but couldn’t quite reel in Patapus. Think she wants further now, but she will be strong at the end I’m sure. Just hopefully isn’t run off her legs.

6 Kaapander (Bet Now: $12.00) looks to be flying. Desperately unlucky resumption before racing on speed here two weeks ago, against his recent racing pattern, and he stuck on well when third to Patapus. Bar Plate are off, Olly is on, there is plenty to like about him. The only negative for mine is the tricky barrier.

10 Magical Charm (Bet Now: $3.60) will do me in the get out. This Adam Durrant trained mare ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where she was an alarming drifter in betting but despite the market fluc, she surged late and proved too good. This is her toughest test to date, but she’s a likely type and Pike jumps on.

Back up in trip should suit 8 The Big Show (Bet Now: $3.90). Impressive winner two back over 2200m before stepping back to 1800m a fortnight back where he found them a bit sharp when midfield behind Dark Prospect. Back up to 2100m, and slightly back in depth, he can roll forward, land on speed and prove tough to run down.

2 Barzinho (Bet Now: $23.00) looks suited up to 2100m. He ran over 1800m here a fortnight ago where he got well back off the pace and never really looked likely but he was building good momentum late and was sound to the line and through it. Think the extra 300m is ideal, he’s got upside and the stable is in form.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 3 Arcadia Prince

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 13 Enticing Star

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 9 Paradise Square

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 8, 9, 14

Leg Two: 10, 13

Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 9

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 8, 10

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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