1/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Night racing continues at Moonee Valley on Friday for an eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

I’m going to have a throw at the stumps via 4 Kyteler (Bet Now: $11.00). George Osborne trained son of Shamus Award that is on debut. He has had a very solid grounding for start one, with three jumpouts followed by a strong Tatura trial win last week. Not sure what to make of the raced brigade, so happy to back this guy each way.

5 Lafargue (Bet Now: $4.60) will put himself on speed and look the winner for a fair chunk of the race. Resumed at Geelong when leading and when he kicked clear, he looked home, only to be nabbed late. Has a tricky draw to overcome, but has early speed, so will press forward and take beating.

9 Pacific Ruby (Bet Now: $8.50) looks to have a nice future. Somewhat unwanted in betting when debuting at Geelong but finished off her race with real purpose when second. Will likely be spotting those in front a start but should be strong at the end and is a knockout chance.

Couple of runners I want to back here. On top though is 4 Get On The Gas (Bet Now: $5.50). Lloyd Kennewell trained three year old that ran last Wednesday at Flemington and should have finished much closer. Got badly held up late in the piece when having something to offer. Gets a suck run on the fence and with luck, he’ll take beating.

2 Rhinoceros (Bet Now: $6.50) is the other horse I want to back. He comes through the Derby Trial last Wednesday at Flemington where he did work on speed out wide and tired late. Gets a much better set up this time around from the gate and can bounce back against this lot.

8 Throntari (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Griffiths/De Kock trained filly that has had two career outings. Debuted with a spank job at Wangaratta. Then was thrown in the deep end in the Guineas Prelude and found the class a bit much. Better suited here so an improved showing is on the cards.

2 Smokin’ Val (Bet Now: $3.90) has the class/quality to put this away. Her waywardness beat her first up at Morphettville. Then went to the How Now and was good late from the back behind Bella Nipotina. Hopefully gets three wide cover, a drag into the race and finish over the top.

3 Sugartown (Bet Now: $2.40) is bursting to win one. Just can’t back to her win with confidence. She had every chance at Sandown last time and was there to win. Just couldn’t finish it off when a narrow second to Madame Bolli. She can win, but I couldn’t touch her at the short odds.

5 Beatrix (Bet Now: $8.50) is a query at 1200m so like her at 1000m. Last run came over 1000m at Sandown where she was just off the speed and battled on well enough in defeat behind Madame Bolli. If she gets a cheap run in transit, I think 1000m at this level will be okay and she’s a threat.

8 Border Leicester (Bet Now: $14.00) is worth an each way speck. His run was full of merit last Sunday at Mornington. He was back near last and given it was a sit/sprint, he was no chance. Gets out in trip, you’d like to think the tempo will be more genuine and I think at the odds, he’s worth a gamble.

7 True Marvel (Bet Now: $2.90) is heading towards the Jericho and should prove hard to beat here. He gave them a galloping lesson over this trip at Mornington last time, and was very strong to the line and through it. Just has to hold his form and he will look the winner at some stage.

5 Marchons Ensemble (Bet Now: $6.50) is very one paced so the rise to 3000m suits. He ran over 2400m at Swan Hill last start where he was back off the speed and tried to wind up but the race shape didn’t go to plan. Does no work from the draw and has Froggy sticking.

Looks to be a stack of speed engaged here, so want to be on one that will sit back and launch late. 10 Upper East Side (Bet Now: $21.00) fits that criteria and I am a bit surprised he is $51+. He comes through the same Swan Hill race as Easy Single and was closing off nicely, beaten just under two lengths. That horse is $4, while this guy is 12 times more than that. Can’t work that out, so happy to speck at the odds.

7 Easy Single (Bet Now: $3.90) is a deserving favourite given he gets in really well at the weights after the claim, he has early speed and has gate one. That win at Swan Hill had good merit to it given he was doing something similar to what he’ll do here. Hold up from the inside, cop pressure and fend them off late. He’ll look the winner. Last bit will test.

6 Destiny’s Republic (Bet Now: $16.00) has done a really good job since joining Barry Goodwin. 2/2 for the stable, those two runs coming in July, albeit in easier races than this, but was still impressive. Trialled well leading in and I think can land leaders back, potentially being a threat at odds.

6 He’s The Real Deel (Bet Now: $3.40) to bounce back. Ran last Wednesday at Flemington where he was tardy to begin with, forced to sit back on the fence and just couldn’t get involved, but was good late behind Excelida. Drawn out, senior jock on, he’ll press forward, land on speed and prove hard to run down.

5 The Regiment (Bet Now: $4.40) will press forward from the wide gate, ideally getting the drag across via He’s The Reel Deel. He was big odds last Wednesday at Flemington but ran a very cheeky race in front when third to the progressive Mr Brightside. That form reads super for this.

4 Rainbow Thief (Bet Now: $14.00) hasn’t set the world on fire this time in, but this is one of the weaker races he has contested in some time. Didn’t think he was too bad from the back last time at Cranbourne behind Milton Park. That was 1400m and now gets to the mile, which helps his cause

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 7 Michante (Bet Now: $3.10). Few weeks between runs and stayed at the mile last time out at Cranbourne. Took a while to get into her work but was strong at the end when a narrow second to Emerald Crown. Like her up in trip and is hard to beat, the clear one to beat if Aspen Colorado doesn’t gain a start.

9 Swindon Lass (Bet Now: $4.60) is racing really well this time in for Matty Brown and should be around the mark. Strong win from her at Sale last time out, sitting off the speed before coming with a well timed run under Higgins and was too good. Harder here, but has run well in town before.

1 Diasonic (Bet Now: $12.00) will very much welcome the drop in grade/depth. Two back was behind Floating Artist before racing in an open handicap here when down the track behind Don’t Doubt Dory. Back to 64 grade, his form reads well for this. Just depends how well is he going.

D-Day/Night for 2 Pioneer River (Bet Now: $2.45). This looks a really suitable race for him. Month between runs since racing at Sandown when near the speed throughout and fighting on pretty well in defeat when third to Crestani. Good record at the track/distance, in well after the claim and lands in a plum spot from the draw.

9 Redeel (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Price/Kent trained mare that should prove hard to beat here. Resumed at Bendigo when back off the speed and worked home strongly late in the piece when third. Form around her from the Autumn does read well, got upside and with the claim for Kelly, she gets in well.

10 Coasting Along (Bet Now: $7.50) rises a fair bit in grade/depth, but Peter Chow has this mare racing in super form at the moment. She was there to be run down at Horsham last time out on speed but she kicked strongly when required and in the end, drew clear to win well. She’ll give her all up near the front.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Smokin’ Val

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Michante

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 10 Upper East Side

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9

Leg Three: 7

Leg Four: 2, 9, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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