Public Holiday racing in Sydney this Monday heads to Randwick-Kensington for an eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:45) Everest Carnival Handicap 1300m
I think it’s buyer beware when it comes to 9 Sir Owen (Bet Now: $4.00). I think he’s the best horse in the race. Just needs to show it on race day. Was pretty keen on him when he resumed on Newcastle Cup Day but for mine, I thought he was most disappointing behind Neruda, and was actually weakening on the line. Just needs to produce better racing manners and I think he’ll be too good.
1 Diplomatico (Bet Now: $2.15) is the best horse in the race, by some distance, and would be a moral if he drew an inside gate. Just not sure where he gets to from the wide draw and whether or not he’ll have to concede too much start on a track where on speed/rail is usually the spot to be. In saying that, his debut effort behind Ronstar back in June was fabulous and the trial win was a beauty.
Is there a reason why 2 Golden Shoulder (Bet Now: $11.00) is $11+? Tracey Bartley trains this three year old and I thought he was quite good on debut at Warwick Farm, albeit against four rivals, but he did a bit wrong in the run yet still chased hard when second to Fortification. Should take good improvement off that, draws well again…can’t work out the price.
Race 2. (13:20) TAB Rewards Handicap 1300m
Sooner or later 4 Unguarded (Bet Now: $7.50) will win her maiden and I think at the double figure odds, she’s worth an each way gamble. Ran over 1100m at Warwick Farm last time where she did a bit wrong in the straight, wanting to duck in behind Voila, but kept chasing and didn’t entirely turn it up. She’s quirky, but looks to have talent and should get a lovely run from the draw.
3 Press Box (Bet Now: $4.40) has always had a bit of a wrap on her but hasn’t quite gone on with it. She comes through the So Taken maiden win at Canterbury where she got into a tricky spot from the draw and couldn’t quite finish it off behind the stablemate. At her best, she probably wins this. Just want to see her do it before diving in.
Long Shot: 5 Alison Of Tuffy (Bet Now: $13-00) is a speedy conveyance for Peter Robl who will put herself on speed. She took the sit last time at Canterbury and somewhat resented that, wanting to pull a fraction, but she stuck on okay in defeat behind So Taken, who ran well last week. Gate one, I’m expecting Tye to take full advantage of that.
Race 3. (13:55) ATC Handicap 1550m
Back Me: I think the safe option is 2 Spring Charlie (Bet Now: $2.80) for Kim Waugh. He has been very good at his past couple, running out the 1400m both times strongly, the latest at Warwick Farm when doing a bit of work in the run but just proving too good. 1550m is a query but should get every chance from gate one.
Expecting a decent effort from 1 Omineca (Bet Now: $5.50), who has a fair bit on these in terms of class but how far will he get is the query. Resumed on a bog at Rosehill and didn’t let down at all behind Conarchie. Much better suited on top of the ground and the step up to 1550m should suit this four year old.
Long Shot: 6 Smooth Whiskey (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Snitzel for Chris Waller who had trialled up well at Rosehill prior to resuming in the Warwick Farm race won by Spring Charlie. It was a strong tempo that race and he was back in the ruck, never really a winning chance. I don’t think they’ll go as mad here and he could represent some value.
Race 4. (14:30) ANZ Bloodstock News Handicap (78) 1400m
10 Union Dues (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. Was really keen on her two back at Sandown but was wide no cover throughout before going to Bendigo where she got back and worked home strongly late behind Merchant Of Venice. Stack of gear changes, most of it off, so hopefully she’s genuine and was scratched last week for this.
Big Danger: If 3 Savacool (Bet Now: $2.60) brings her best, she’s an odds on chance. She’s better than these. Remaining at 1400m is the only negative with her, because she was very good I thought when resuming at the trip at Rosehill, working home with purpose late behind Tip Top. Think she wants further, but clearly the best horse in the race.
5 Invictum Domina (Bet Now: $9.00) could get on pace favours here. She got that last time at Warwick Farm when starting big odds and despite being under pressure early on, she found and proved too good. Was only second up, so she should have upside and looks to get a really run, either leading or sitting outside La Chica Bella.
Race 5. (15:05) TAB Handicap (70) 1000m
1 And So It Goes (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented mare for Garry White who resumes. She was last seen in late July at Rosehill when finishing just behind Oria in a blanket finish. That was 1200m and I reckon that trip at this level sees her out, so 1000m fresh looks ideal, good trial, handy fresh record and J Mac on is a good lead.
Was originally against 6 All Stand (Bet Now: $2.70) due to the wide gate but now with the scratchings, he should get over on speed rather comfortably and is now a definite threat. Just did too much work last time over this trip on the course proper behind Soothing. Freshened up and looked sharp in a Newcastle trial win. Last 50m will be the best but he’ll be in the right spot.
4 Phuket (Bet Now: $10.00) is a very interesting runner. Son of Megdalia D’Oro resuming for the Allan Denham stable. Hasn’t raced since November last year at Hawkesbury when pulling up badly lame behind Invincible Quest. Been given nearly a year to recover, but looked sharp in a recent trial and Bowman booked to ride.
Race 6. (15:46) #theraces Handicap (78) 1800m
I think 3 Amanito (Bet Now: $4.80) is a good gamble here. Team Snowden has this stayer going quite well and I think he’s well placed to get another win on the board. Settled out the back last time over 1550m here before Tye eased him wider and he let down hard with momentum to win. Gets the sit off Cosmologist and has last look.
4 Cosmologist (Bet Now: $5.50) likely takes up the running here and is one of the hardest to beat. 2/2 this prep for Joe Pride, the latest over the 1580m at Canterbury when leading throughout. Has to tick the 1800m but should get a soft lead, though it’s unsure what the tactics will be on All Too Huiyung who can race keen.
Couple of years ago, 8 The Bandit (Bet Now: $11.00) was talked up as a Caulfield Cup horse. Lofty expectations has to be said, and this is his level. Thought he was really good first up in the race won by Cosmologist mentioned above. He got back and was never really in the hunt but he closed off well enough. If the map is right, he likely sits behind Amanito three back the inside and will be strong late.
Race 7. (16:20) Flying Handicap 1000m
Ripping race but the safe option is 3 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $2.25), who has been outstanding this time in for Kris Lees. Comes back to NSW after a hit and run mission to the Sunny Coast, where he found a weak Class 6 and bolted in. Big tick is that the race has already produced a couple of subsequent winners. Tick over trial was good, maps well, 1000m perfect…looks the one.
If the trend of bias towards those on speed on this track continues, I think 2 Super Too (Bet Now: $7.00) comes right into play. She bungled the start in the Carlyon at the Valley first up and that was the end of her when down the track behind Faatinah. Winona rides her very well and no doubt she’ll ping the lids, lead and look to hang on.
12 Nictock (Bet Now: $11.00) is a huge watch here. Cameron Crockett trains this talented gelding, and the fact he resumes in town tells me there is intent to run well. Had three runs in the Winter and for the most part was disappointing. Been given a decent break and looked sharp in a recent Scone trial win. Claim for Hunt a big tick also.
Race 8. (17:00) Tab.com.au Handicap (78) 1400m
3 Renewal (Bet Now: $3.80), if he jumps clean, will win. He’s flying for Team Hawkes but unfortunately tardy starts have cost him dearly, first up when beaten narrowly by Don’t Give A Damn before running fourth to Conarchie last time after being badly away. Third up now, he should be ready fitness wise…just needs to jump.
4 Live And Free (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented son of Savabeel resuming for the John O’Shea stable. This horse went on the Queensland Derby prep after a couple of outstanding wins but by the time he got the Derby, he was a tired horse. Been given a good break and has been tuned up for his return with a couple of trials. He’ll likely get back and launch late.
11 Gitan (Bet Now: $16.00) is an interesting runner. Jean Dubois trains this consistent type who is a couple of months between runs since racing over 1350m at Rosehill where he got a mile back off the pace but finished off quite strongly late behind Paret, who has gone on from that, along with a few others. Can sprint well fresh and 1400m tells me he’s forward enough.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Renewal
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Spring Charlie
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 4 Unguarded
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 9
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8
Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 12
Leg Four: 3
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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