1/1/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, New Year’s Day Cup day

New Years Day racing in Sydney will take place on the Kensington track at Randwick where the feature race is the New Years Day Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres from the 1500m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.

3 Gayatri (Bet Now: $2.30) looks the winner. Waller/Bowman combine with this mare, who was a strong first up winner at Hawkesbury before going to Kembla where she didn’t seem 100% happy on the bog track but stuck on well in defeat when third to Miss Jenny. Back on firmer footing should help her cause, blinkers first time, draws to stalk the speed…keen on her.

6 Thunder Pace (Bet Now: $8.50) is a progressive type for the WaterBott team who should set the speed. Toughed it out strongly to break the maiden status two back over the Warwick Farm mile before going to the 1400m here where he was on speed but couldn’t match it with dominant winner Thy Kingdom Come. Up to 1800m suits, should lead and give a bold sight.

1 Bezel (Bet Now: $14.00) isn’t going as well as he was last prep but he hasn’t been far away of late. He hasn’t raced since the Mudgee Cup where he just got too far back in the run and never looked likely but was good late. Like him up to 1800m but the negative is that he’ll likely be dragged back to last from the gate. On that factor, I don’t think he can win, but he goes in all multiples.

I think the $6.50/thereabouts each way is more than acceptable for 2 Love Shack Baby (Bet Now: $5.50). David Pfieffer trains this mare, who ran over 1400m here last time and while well beaten when second to Thy Kingdom Come, she stuck to the task and was very game in defeat. Should get run of the race stuff from the inside gate and up to 1550m should suit her.

3 Smiling Manolito (Bet Now: $3.20) isn’t one of mine but concede she’s a threat here. Bumped into C’Est Da Vinchi two back before getting the soft lead last time over 1550m at Canterbury and fought hard late to beat Welsh Legend, who was great on Boxing Day behind a future Oaks winner IMO in Zalatte. She gives her all on speed and should take some beating.

7 Chalk (Bet Now: $7.00) is a bit of a bludger for Wendy Roche but at his best, he is capable of winning. He ran at Warwick Farm a couple of Saturdays back on the bog and was okay without being great behind Monsieur Sisu. This looks very much a drop in depth, better on firmer footing which he gets here and could well be the value here in a tricky contest.

3 Ivy’s Court (Bet Now: $5.50) on top. Chris Waller trains this former Kiwi mare, who has had a few runs in Australia, bolting up two back over the Wyong mile before having three weeks off and racing at this track/distance when a closing third to Toryjoy. Think she’ll take good improvement from that, has gate one and Bowman jumps on. Looks one of the hardest to beat.

2 Shantou (Bet Now: $5.50) has come back in good order for Bjorn Baker but is just struggling a touch to breakthrough. Ran over 1350m at Wyong last time where she got well back, with cover, got to the outside and finished off her race really nicely to run second to Spanish Dream. First look at this distance range but she’s racing as if it will suit her. Winning chance for sure.

6 Seababe (Bet Now: $13.00) looks to be a mare at odds you could include. Ran over the mile at Wyong last time where he took forever to get into her work but her last 50-75m was tidy when a close up third to Zeppelin. Gets weight relief now and potentially could roll forward in a race that doesn’t appear to have much pace to it, or designated leaders for that matter.

1 Belladeel (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a really nice colt. Chris Waller trains this son of Dundeel, who is making his debut with two trials under the belt, winning the first one at Warwick Farm before going to Canterbury where he was under triple wraps when third to Silent Explorer, a city performer, and Botti, a Stakes performer. If he runs up to his trials, he should be winning.

3 Jimmu (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Gerald Ryan trained son of Snitzel for Arrowfield who made his debut at Wyong and from the wide gate, I thought his run was full of merit when second to Nindamos. The third horse, Classic Jade, bolted up at Newcastle next start so the form has been franked. Another tricky draw, but hopefully will improve off that and we know that Gerald is a master with the Snitzel progeny.

I think back to 1400m will suit the Wendy Roche trained 5 Affogato (Bet Now: $20.00). I liked him last start at Hawkesbury over the mile and I thought he was home when he hit the front, but Rock Zone just proved too good in the end and perhaps Affogato didn’t see the mile out. That’s why I like him back to 1400m. Hasn’t got the class of some of these, but has hard racing under the belt and draws soft.

4 Earth Angel (Bet Now: $8.50) for the sake of a tip. I say sake of a tip, but $15+ does seem overs. She was hard in the market at Flemington last time in a messy race and for mine was a total forgive behind Crafty Devil. She’ll be much better suited on the firmer ground here, 2400m no issue and she brings different form, which isn’t the worst thing in these 2400m nightmares.

Concede 3 Naval Warfare (Bet Now: $1.50) is the one to beat, but $1.40? No thank you. Couldn’t touch him at that price. He comes here off the back of a benchmark win at Warwick Farm where he was given a 12/10 steer from J Mac to win. He beat nothing and for the most part he takes on nothing here as well. The one to beat on form but I couldn’t back him at the price.

He’s a 24 start maiden but I reckon 6 Dashing Special (Bet Now: $18.00) could be a potential knockout. I think this is his best prep but it’s still the same result- no wins. Wouldn’t have won last Saturday at Newcastle behind Front View but clearly should have run second. Just had no luck in the straight. Should get clear air this time, down in the weights and is a stayer.

1 Fuchu (Bet Now: $2.70) is a son of All Too Hard for Kim Waugh who has won his past couple at the provincials. Just got the job done at Newcastle two back before repeating the dose at Wyong and his win there was very good because he spotted them a start on the turn and never really looked like winning until the final few strides. Think he can run well despite the class/depth rise.

I reckon she might need this run but I don’t want to ignore 6 Seahampton (Bet Now: $3.80). She resumed in the Seasons race from several weeks ago at Rosehill and her run probably wasn’t the best behind the Les Bridge mare, I thought she was still quite good in defeat. I think maybe one more run, but she showed last prep she’s got the brilliance to beat a field like this.

3 Moondancer (Bet Now: $9.00) is a handy son of Darci Brahma that resumes for the Kris Lees stable. This bloke hasn’t raced since September 12 at Canterbury when racing like a tired horse, finishing down the track behind Cosmologist. Looked to go well in a recent Gosford trial and he is a first up winner, plus gets the claim for Sam Weatherley. Not sure he can win, but he goes in exotics.

He’s a pest and tough to follow and trust with confidence, but I don’t want 9 Osorno (Bet Now: $2.20) to go around without me. Thought there was merit in his first up run at Warwick Farm behind Rosina Kojonup before going to Wyong where he had no luck at all in the straight behind Knight Arrow. J Mac is on now, draws to get clear air…each way at $7.50 will do me to find out how he’s come back.

3 Clifton County (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Gerald Ryan trained son of Bernadini that is first up. He hasn’t raced since late July when getting the job done in what looked a handy race at Wyong over 1350m. Interesting his trial was just under a month ago, hasn’t been sighted since. I think the market will tell you how forward he is, but generally the stable usually have them ready first up.

1 Pelorus Jack (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Les Bridge trained gelding that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since June 16 at Rosehill when finishing down the track behind the above average Manolo Blahniq. Market trends early say he’s got three legs or a gut as big as mine. But we know that he’s better than this grade if he’s anywhere near right. He’s a yard watch for sure.

9 Laburnum (Bet Now: $3.10) is a talented filly for James Cummings that resumes. She showed good promise in the Winter, and was only a few lengths off Fiesta in the Silver Shadow, which is A1 form for 3YO Fillies. Trialled alongside Prophet’s Thumb and beat her home but was under pressure but that filly is above average. Pulled out of Boxing Day and instead finds a very winnable race here.

1 Nic’s Vendetta (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute beauty for the Todd Howlett stable and it’s pleasing to see there is early support for him. He always runs well and each prep picks up good prizemoney for connections. He comes here first up and looks to have come back really well if the trial is any guide, finishing alongside the above average Tactical Advantage at Gosford. Draws well and Mikayla Weir rides him better than anyone else.

If 6 Royal Witness (Bet Now: $7.00) ran up to his trials, he’d be a blacktype class horse. John Sargent trains this enigma, who has promised the world since day one but to date his lone highlight has been a 1000m Hawkesbury maiden win. He’s trialled well on a couple of occasions, as usual. What do they do from the barrier? Handle bars down to lead or ease back for cover and hope?

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Belladeel

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Gayatri

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Earth Angel

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 9, 11

Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 9

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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