1/1/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Perth Cup day

A bumper card of racing has been assembled for Ascot this Monday where it is Perth Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

3 Play Hard (Bet Now: $26.00) on top in what looks a really open juvenile race to kick off Perth Cup Day. Team Williams trains this galloper, who has only had the one public trial, which came over 400m at Belmont last Monday. Sure to be well educated for his debut, draws a soft gate and always respect the stable on big days.

1 Carolina Reaper (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Frost Giant colt for Paul Jordan who has had two career outings, both coming here over 1000m and 1100m respectively. Gave them a galloping lesson over the 1100m when winning, which was back on November 4. Has the pace to overcome the barrier and has race experience.

5 Regal Counsel (Bet Now: $26.00) is a nice looking colt on debut for the Trevor Andrews team. This bloke has the benefit of two trials over the belt, one over 400m and the other over 1000m last Monday when running a strong second to Bam’s On Fire. Like the fact he has had the 1000m trial, which should give him an ideal grounding.

6 Flash Of Thunder (Bet Now: $4.40) the one to beat for mine. Adam Durrant trains this three year old, who debuted over 1200m at Bunbury and led all the way for a dominant win. Nothing flash time wise, but he did it very nicely and that field looked to have a bit of depth to it. Keen to see what he does against some above average types here.

4 Street Fury (Bet Now: $3.80) is a few weeks between runs for the Pearce camp since racing at this track/distance where she raced without cover for the duration and that was against her in the end when plugging away to run fourth to Arrum Boy, beaten a length. Should get cover from the sweet draw and the little freshen up should do her the world of good.

1 Cognac (Bet Now: $8.50) is a nippy customer for the Paul Jordan stable who will be in it for a long way. Was three weeks between runs when racing over 1100m here last time out where he tried hard but the class/brilliance of Illustrious Tycoon was too much. I think he has the speed to come over from the draw and the claim is a big tick.

5 New Age (Bet Now: $2.10) looks the good thing on the program. Very progressive mare for Adam Durrant who is showing good promise and who knows, she might be here this time in 2019 in the Perth Cup. She ran over this track/distance last time out and it was a painless watch for her backers as she had the 1/1 throughout, popped clear air on the turn and darted away. Something similar should be done barring bad luck.

3 Reef Keeper (Bet Now: $9.50) is several weeks between runs since facing three rivals at Bunbury and he tried very hard after settling last but was just no match for New Age. He does get a 3kg weight swing on the mare here, but just not sure he has her upside. Still, he should be respected and will be thereabouts.

2 Dudemanbro (Bet Now: $6.50) is a real grinding type for the Justin Warwick yard who ran over this track/distance on December 16 where he seemingly had the run of the race but then got shuffled back on the turn and given he only has one gear, that was clearly against him but he was very sound late when fourth to Star Value. He’ll be there when the whips are cracking.

No Celebrity Dream, so I am confident that 3 Fontainebleu (Bet Now: $4.20) can get her win this prep. She has been excellent in these mares races this Summer Carnival, the latest being in the Starstruck where she was only outsprinted near the line by Celebrity Dream. The 1800m is right up her alley, hard fit, drawn well…keen.

1 Silverstream (Bet Now: $1.90) is the class runner of the field and as such, she has to carry the topweight. She was a dynamic winner of the Scahill last time out, charging home from the back to overhaul Properantes in the shadows of the peg for a dynamic win. No qualms with the rise to 1800m and her class will carry her a long way.

2 I’m Feeling Lucky (Bet Now: $9.50) is back with Lindsey Smith after a stint in Melbourne where she didn’t quite measure up. Ran in the Starstruck last start and just went a bit keen on speed, leaving her gassed in the straight behind Celebrity Dream. Ideally I’d like to see her ridden with cover. If that eventuates, don’t be surprised to see a reversal of form.

4 Luke’s Gold (Bet Now: $6.50) gets the nod. He has come back in good order to my eye and with a bit of luck he can take this out. He comes through the Wrinkly race on December 16 where that horse had an absolute picnic in front and those out the back, including Luke’s Gold, really had no hope. If we get a more genuine speed here, he’s the one.

3 Gunnago (Bet Now: $2.60) is a beauty for the Justin Pateman team who also comes through the Wrinkly race and his effort was very good. He sat off the pace and just lacked the turn of foot but wound up with purpose to run second. I think he has the potential to roll forward here and sit up outside Wrinkly. Key threat.

6 Jackpot Prince (Bet Now: $13.00) is a classy stayer that resumes for the Adam Durrant team. Was earmarked as a Perth Cup horse after a brilliant Winter prep, which ended with a superb win in the Belmont Classic. Dodged the Summer and resumes here. Looks to be intent to run well fresh given he is at the mile first up off just one soft trial.

14 Regal Moon (Bet Now: $3.30) on top. Team Williams trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since December 9 over 1000m here when getting a mile back off them but wound up hard late to run second to Ambiente. Would love to see her take advantage of the inside gate. If she does, I’m confident she goes close to winning.

8 Capricorn Dancer (Bet Now: $9.50) is an in form mare for the Colin Webster yard who should take some beating. She is around three weeks between runs since running over 1300m at Pinjarra where she got well back off the pace but wound up with purpose to just miss out on picking up the above average Blackline. Draws to sit closer in the run and does tend to race best on the fresh side.

5 Where’s Wally (Bet Now: $8.50) looks the clear overs in the race. Very good three year old from last season who has had two runs as a four year old and has had no luck each time, getting badly held up when appearing to have plenty to offer. Doubt he’ll get pocketed from the gate this time, so we’ll see for sure how good he has come back.

3 Dainty Tess (Bet Now: $4.00) is a ripping mare for the Dan Morton team who has been given a little freshen up since the Winterbottom where that hard 1200m probably saw her out but she was still game in defeat behind Viddora. Fast run 1000m looks perfect for her and she should be savaging the line late.

6 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $3.80) is a high quality mare who I find a very fascinating runner here. She is coming back to the 1000m after winning over the mile in the Starstruck last Saturday when just overhauling them late. She will be the one charging late. Question, the obvious one, is will they be too nippy for her?

4 Battle Hero (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big watch here. Former Team Williams galloper who has had a couple of runs for the Chris Gangemi team in the Winter and ran okay without winning. Has had the full prep now under the new stable, but interestingly enough, no trials. Fitness levels are unknown but he is a quality animal and flies fresh.

1 Pounamu (Bet Now: $5.00) is the class runner of the field so the 59kg impost will be an ask. Kingston Town win was enormous and he backed that up with a thrilling win over Material Man in the Ted Van Heemst. On weights, he can’t hold the margin over Material Man and co, but he is the class factor and that will carry him a long way.

3 Trap For Fools (Bet Now: $4.60) does look the obvious. I was against him last start in the ATA but he proved me wrong with a commanding all the way win and on the line he was comfortably holding them. Looks the leader again, down in the weights, hard fit, in form and loves a fight when challenged. Happy to be in his corner.

4 Zarantz (Bet Now: $9.00) is the horse I’ve had my eyes on for this for some time as a knockout chance and he is at the right price to have something on each way. He has been hitting the line nicely in recent times, and was a clear blackbooker from the Ted Van Heemst against the tempo. Finally gets weight relief and is finally at 2400m. He can only run well.

12 Illustrious Tycoon (Bet Now: $2.90) for me in the get out. Trevor Andrews trains this very promising colt who is two for two. He resumed over 1100m here a fortnight back and did enough to lead all the way, tiring late but clinging on as the swoopers were chiming in. Takes on some nice types, but I think he has the upside/brilliance.

6 Royal Command (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented son of Street Sense for Team Williams who is first up. He last ran on July 29 at Belmont when scoring a brilliant win in a race which has produced six subsequent winners. Comes here with no trials, but you always have to respect the stable, especially on a feature day.

8 Veuve De Vega (Bet Now: $27.00) is a four year old gelding resuming for Sean Casey. He has a pretty decent engine under the hood but he is hit and miss at times. Couple of gear changes for his resumption, he draws well and on his best form, he is certainly up to these. You’ll get good odds to find out how well he has come back.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 12 Illustrious Tycoon

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Fontainebleu

VALUE: Race One Number 3 Play Hard

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 5, 8, 14

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 13

Leg Four: 6, 8, 12, 14

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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