17/6/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Royal Ascot, Commonwealth Cup day

Royal Ascot continues this Friday, headlined by the Group l Commonwealth Cup (1207m) and Group l Coronation Stakes (1603m).

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16 Queen Olly (Bet Now: $8.50) is a definite winning chance. Debuted at York back on May 12 where she was near the speed throughout and looked to truck well on speed before being clicked up and away she went and she spanked them in a dominant display. Good test here, but confident she measures up.

13 Meditate (Bet Now: $4.40) is unbeaten in two career runs for Aidan O’Brien. Both wins have come in Ireland, winning impressively on debut at the Curragh before repeating the dose in good style at Naas. Stable had a couple nominated for the race, but they go with a sole rep with this filly. Hard to beat.

3 Believing (Bet Now: $20.00) is a knockout hope. Debuted at Newmarket and ran a game second to Mawj, who goes around as a key threat here. Believing was good in defeat, with a gap to third. She then went to Wolverhampton and gapped them. I doubt she wins, but a first four threat.

14 Twilight Jet (Bet Now: $7.50) looks to have come back in super order for the O’Callaghan camp. Resumed over 1200m at Naas where he was taking on some race fit horses but made a mess of them from the front and it was a very impressive return, which followed a busy two year old campaign. He’s got room for improvement, hard 1200m no issue…I think he’ll only run well.

9 Perfect Power (Bet Now: $4.60) looks much better suited at 1200m. Tested at the mile in the 2000 Guineas and he just found 1600m a bridge too far when down the track. He is much better over the short course so 1200m here is ideal and at his best, I think he’ll take beating.

3 Ehraz (Bet Now: $6.50) will be warming to the task late. Those in the UK have said that this horse had looked like a skunk in the coat fresh and was just fair here. He then went to Newbury and ran a much improved race when second to Tiber Flow, just missing out after sitting back. He’ll get good cover and launch at these late.

Tricky race to sort out with confidence. I’ll play a straight bat with 8 Just Fine (Bet Now: $4.80), who is second up. He resumed over this trip at York and was badly held up early on in the straight, getting no momentum. He did pick up late and was good in defeat when third. He’ll love 2400m at Ascot and be strong at the end.

6 Trawlerman (Bet Now: $5.50) should love the rise in trip for Team Gosden. He resumed over 2000m at Wolverhampton where he made a sustained run from off the speed and what I liked is that the further the race went on, the better he got. Off that, 2400m here is ideal, he’s got upside and a touch of quality.

10 Stay Well (Bet Now: $16.00) is one I could include for wider multiples. He was 2200m back to 2000m at Redcar last start. He had his chance but I liked the way he battled on in defeat to finish second. He seems a one batter so 2400m should be fine, he maps to get a soft run…knockout hope.

Cracking race for the 3YO fillies. I’ll bank on Team Gosden getting it right with 5 Inspiral (Bet Now: $3.70). They wouldn’t run her fresh in a proper G1 race like this if she wasn’t ready to go. If she’s ready to go, she wins. She was the best 2YO filly last year, winning 4/4 and looking like a star each time she stepped out. Market will be fascinating but the stable knows what they are doing.

1 Cachet (Bet Now: $7.00) is the obvious threat. Strong on speed win to claim the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. She then went to tge French 1000 Guineas and Doyle said post race in defeat that he went too slow in front on her. If he leads and lets her roll, that is her best chance of winning.

3 Grande Dame (Bet Now: $14.00) is in with a shout. Team Gosden trained filly that has had two career outings. Won on debut in good style at this track/distance before going to York where she did a bit wrong in the straight but kept surging to just miss out on the win. Needs to improve, but no reason why she can’t given she’s lightly raced.

27 Pink Carnation (Bet Now: $26.00) each way for me. This filly looks quite progressive and has a good racing style. She was there to be beaten at Nottingham last start but gee I like the ticker she showed late to fend off King Gesture and on the line, she had her ears pricked, suggesting there was more to come. There was eight lengths back to third, so with that in mind, down in the weights, near the front, she’ll run a bold race.

17 Persist (Bet Now: $11.00) has returned in pretty good order. She was a mile out of her ground at Ripon last start but she surged hard late under Marquand, picking up strongly to record a strong first up win. Her racing pattern isn’t the best, but the tempo will be genuine and she should be strong at the end.

10 Lullaby (Bet Now: $17.00) should welcome the drop in grade/depth. She contested the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh and was outclassed when down the track behind a star in Homeless Songs. This looks more her level and I think with her best, she’s good enough to run a positive race.

Charlie Appleby three year old gelding, staying prowess, he’s talked already about potentially coming for the Melbourne…the blackbook can be used to include 5 Ottoman Fleet (Bet Now: $2.80) because I think he is one that is on the short list for a trip for the Melbourne Cup. Remarkable win at Newmarket last time given he stumbled at the start and was lucky to stay on his feet. He did, he balanced up, tracked the speed and was strong late in winning. I’m keen on him.

1 Changingoftheguard (Bet Now: $2.80) deserves another chance. He ran in the Derby where he went too keen in front and was left a sitting shot, tiring to run fifth. I think he’ll be much better with a conservative steer and his wins prior suggested he’s got a decent engine under the hood.

6 Savvy Victory (Bet Now: $18.00) is one for wider exotics. He ran third to Ottoman Fleet at Newmarket and while he was safely held late, he stayed on and was pretty good in defeat I thought. I think the rise back up in trip is ideal for him…I doubt he wins, but he can fill a place/first four spot.

Not a great body of evidence, but to me there is enough to suggest that Irad Ortiz Jr has no idea what he is doing re tactics, so Ruthin is a clear risk for me. I think back in trip is perfect for 7 Tippy Toes (Bet Now: $11.00). Ran in the Sandy Lane at Haydock last time and didn’t quite get the rub of the green in the straight. Wouldn’t have won but should have finished closer. Can see her rolling on speed and with the 1200m runs under the belt, she should be strong at the end of 1000m.

9 Ladies Church (Bet Now: $6.50) is a talented filly for Johnny Murtagh. Resumed over 1100m at Cork where she got back to near last in the run but sliced her way through the field and drove hard late to just miss when a narrow second. Fast run 1000m suits and she’s got good upside.

20 Sterling Knight (Bet Now: $13.00) is 2/2 this time in, and is a last start winner at the track over 1200m. She produced good change up speed to win at the track and despite getting the staggers late, she got the job done. I think back to 1000m is ideal for her and she does have experience at the track.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Inspiral

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Ottoman Fleet

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 27 Pink Carnation

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