If the strong favourite Rothfire is right for the Group 2 Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm on Saturday, chances are his odds of $2.20 are about on the mark … and what a thrill it would be to see the Robert Heathcote trained son of Rothesay get back to his winning ways.
The win would stand to the credit not only the trainer but to every person who played a part in caring for the horse during his long, delicate rehabilitation and the measured way he was slowly progressed back to match-fitness.
The dominance of Rothfire in the betting though, does mean that the odds of several other horses are exaggerated to a tempting degree.
Take the $23 price (at the time of writing) of Shaquero for example.
A winner of the $2 million Magic Millions Two-Year-Old Classic and the Group 3 Pago Pago in his two-year-old season, the Chris Waller trained son of Shalaa has only had four runs as a three-year-old … the last two of those both being in Group 1 races … the Coolmore and the VRC Classic.
While Shaquero did finish out of the placings in both of those starts, it is well worth noting that the winners of those two Group 1 events were two absolute star performers … Home Affairs (who won the Coolmore) and Nature Strip (who won the VRC Classic winner).
Shaquero was scheduled to have his first up run last week in the Mick Dittman Plate, but was scratched due to the heavy track thus denying jockey Luke Dittman the chance to win the race named after his father.
But now, just seven days later, the stage for a possible dramatic first-up run has been re-set for Shaquero.
“It would have been good if I had been able to have a go at winning the race named after my dad, but obviously Shaquero doesn’t like a wet track, so he was scratched when the rail came … but I suppose that’s racing,” said Luke Dittman.
“Instead, he gets the chance to go around in the Victory Stakes.
“He’s been running in good races down south, so obviously he strikes a weaker race here … on paper at least. Still, it is certainly a stronger race than he would have been in last week.
“They are not usually that far wrong with their prices. I just hope they are wrong tomorrow.
“He’s got the best trainer in the country (Chris Waller) and he’ll have him fit and ready.
“I know it’s Eagle Farm and the weather won’t really affect the track, but I just hope he handles the Eagle Farm track itself and that he can get home over the top of them.
“It seems to show every week that some horses like it and some don’t.
“He ran on it once as a two-year-old and he ran ordinary. As soon as he hit the ground , he never travelled and he wanted to over-race. His run was too bad to be true. Then the form he had shown in Sydney before that came out in his next start and he won the Magic Millions, so I just hope he was having an off-day then and that he shows up this time.
“I do think he is probably over the odds, although he does strike a tough field. Every single one of them is a good horse, but he has proven he can win races like that and be competitive in thissort of company.
“Hopefully we can make up for the disappointment of last week.”
