The best race on the Queensland racing calendar is the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) and the 2023 edition at Eagle Farm this Saturday shapes up to be an absolute beauty.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Stradbroke Handicap.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Stradbroke Handicap
2023 Stradbroke Handicap Speed Map
Field of 18 should ensure a very strong tempo. Rothfire will have to push the button, and with venom, from the wide gate. Holyfield is also drawn wide and will be forced to go hard early to get across. Gentleman Roy and Surf Dancer are both drawn well and will look to hold a forward spot.
2023 Stradbroke Handicap Runner Preview:
1. Rothfire: He has just lost that brilliance. His late sectionals suggest that he gets better as the race goes on so in that regard, 1400m is ideal. But, he was comfortably held by Think About It and can’t see him turning the tables.
2. Superstorm: Good luck to Lauren Abbott for having a runner in the big race, but this horse looks well and truly past it.
3. Vilana: Hit and miss horse but his best is good enough to be a threat. He was wide no cover in the Kingsford Smith and that early burn told late behind Think About It. Dangerous with a more economical run but again, doubt he turns the tables.
4. Scallopini: He’s a big track horse so getting to Eagle Farm from Doomben is a big tick. Resumed in the BRC Sprint and was brave as ever on speed behind Surf Dancer. He loves a fast run 1400m and has home track advantage so he has a bit going for him to run a bold race.
5. Converge: Lot of people are jumping up and down about him. I just don’t see it. His two best runs since 14 months ago was the George Ryder, which was a barrier trial, and the last start effort in the Kingsford Smith, where he was fence in run on a day where up/in was gold. He can win without me.
6. Surf Dancer: Had excuses fresh in The Archer but bounced back to form with a BRC Sprint win, which meant connections paid the late entry fee for this race. He is hit and miss at times…but noteworthy that Ryan Maloney is booked to ride at 54kg, and he would need to have cut off a leg to get that far down in the weights, so I assume he’ll seek permission to ride 1-1.5kg over…can he win? I am saying no.
7. Gentleman Roy: We saw in the Orr that he is a very sharp 1400m horse at this level when first past the post but losing it on protest. He resumed in the Kingsford Smith when dragged back from the gate and it was a trial. More intent here, rolls forward, he can run a much improved race.
8. Eleven Eleven: He’s gone this horse. Pass.
9. Think About It: Think About It has to be rated as the one to beat. The Kingsford Smith two weeks ago was his first look against the big boys and girls at WFA and he passed with flying colours, once again showcasing his line finding qualities to win again. At the weights, he looks so well in, and was only second up, so he’s got plenty of room for improvement.
10. Cardinal Gem: What a run this in the BRC Sprint. Four wide the trip, looked like he would run last at one stage but he picked up and found the line strongly behind Surf Dancer. He’s clearly enjoying life in QLD and with better luck in transit, he’s good enough to fill a first four spot.
11. Holyfield: Far from disgraced in the BRC Sprint after sitting wide no cover for the trip. He is a solid Listed/Group lll horse. Not a Group l horse.
12. Aft Cabin: Desperate for the Group l win/placing to get his future sealed post racing. He closed off pretty well in the 10,000 but was comfortably held by Giga Kick. Tick over trial last week was strong and in a fast run 1400m, soft run…I can see him exploding. But backing him to do it is another thing.
13. Royal Merchant: Iron filly. Huge win in The Goodwood given she was wide no cover the trip but she just kept finding under Mick Dee to fend them off and win. It was an average edition of the race, and this is clearly harder, but she is tough, genuine and is in form.
14. Ruthless Dame: Sangster win was enormous given she gave them a start and a beating, and the win had more merit given she was taking on seasoned campaigners first up. Stable knows what it takes to win on the road and they get Mick Dee, who has been, clearly, the best big race rider in Australia this season.
15. Chain Of Lightning: Talented mare for Peter Moody that was far from disgraced in the Sangster. But, she seemingly had every chance I thought and this looks a bridge too far for her.
16. Palaispan: Clear excuse in the Kingsford Smith when having feet issues but she isn’t up to this level.
17. Tick Tock Queen: Good luck to connections on getting a start via The Gateway win but she is not up to these. Next.
18. Hawaii Five Oh: Hawaii Five Oh is putting it together and is very dangerous. The ride from Nash was 12/10 in the Fred Best two weeks ago and no doubt in my mind that the ride won the race, getting a margin on Yellow Brick and maintained it in the run to the line. He can be a bit erratic re racing manners but in recent runs he has been much better and right down in the weights, clearly appeals.
19. Alpine Edge (First Emergency): Could be a sleeper if he gets a start. He wasn’t too bad in the Kingsford Smith I thought, getting a mile back and closing off really well. Not sure he wins, but a must for exotics.
20. Opal Ridge (Second Emergency): Opal Ridge is a filly that I think could measure up in an Everest. She is that good. Her win in the Luskin Star at Scone, her change up speed, was that of a Group l horse and she has shown this prep that dry ground is right up her street. Fast run 1400m, if she is within range 400m out, she has the change up speed and finale to take this out. Just a shame she is unlikely to get a run.
21. Dragon Leap (Third Emergency): Again, unlikely to get a run but he is in form. Just missed out on the BRC Sprint win to secure a spot in the field. If he gets a run, he’ll eat up a fast run 1400m and be one of the strongest at the end.
22. Sinawann (Fourth Emergency): Sinawann is dangerous with his absolute best. The query being he hasn’t really produced his best in some time but the return a few weeks ago was encouraging. That came in the BRC Sprint at Doomben and found the line quite well from near last on the turn behind Surf Dancer. Tick over trial last week at the Sunny Coast was strong and in a fast run race, he’ll be stronger than most late. But again, he won’t get a run.
23. Yellow Brick (Fifth Emergency): Yellow Brick wouldn’t have looked out of place here. Dominant winner of the Gold Coast Guineas fresh at the Sunny Coast before racing here two weeks ago in the Fred Best in search of a Stradbroke berth but things didn’t eventuate for him when a closing second to Hawaii Five Oh. He won’t get a start.
2023 Stradbroke Handicap $100 Betting Strategy:
Can easily declare Think About It a good thing, but I prefer to have a $100 Boxed First Four for 5.95% and hope for value. Eight horses with the numbers being 4-7-9-10-12-13-14-18.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $7350
Group l Strategy Return: $5309.50
